ShinyRBase: Near real-time energy saving models using reactive programming

To document energy savings from retrofitting a building, a reliable baseline model is needed. The development and implementation of the baseline model is an important step in the measurement and verification (M&V) process. Usually, an energy analyst enters the stage, collects data, do the estimation and delivers the baseline model. The modeling work of the energy analyst is done on either a proprietary or open-source statistical software, often using a coding script. If stakeholders want an updated report on energy savings, the analyst must re-do the whole process, for example on a monthly basis. This workflow is based on an imperative programming paradigm. The analyst holds on to the code that performs the analysis and re-run the code when agreed upon. The consequence of this workflow is that stakeholders are dependent on the energy analyst and that updated energy savings results must be planned and scheduled. However, emerging M&V 2.0 technologies enables automation of the energy saving reports. This paper demonstrates how energy savings from retrofitting’s in the Norwegian food retail sector is continuously monitored and documented in a web application. The application is built using open-source tools where the baseline model is delivered through a reactive programming framework. As an energy savings baseline model, the Tao Vanilla benchmarking model (TVB) was set into production in the web application. The TVB is a linear regression model with well specified features, easy to interpret and has a history of excellent prediction performance. The proposed web application framework allows for a fast development cycle without any need-to-know web programming languages like HTML, CSS or JavaScript. The reactive framework delivers several advantages. First, the stakeholders will always have a current and real-time report on the savings. Second, complex methodologies are dynamically used by the end-user. Third, increased involvement by stakeholders and interaction with the analyst related to the methods used in the energy savings analysis leads to collaborative benefits such as faster disseminating of knowledge. These synergy effect leads to a better technical understanding from the end user perspective and enhanced practical understanding for the analyst. Finally, the paper presents an integrated look at the energy kWh savings versus the cost of the retrofitting’s

Determinants of trip duration for international tourists in Norway; a parametric survival analysis

Source at https://doi.org/10.1515/ejthr-2017-0008 .How long a tourist stays in a host country acts as an indicator of tourism industry’s contribution towards the national economy. The purpose of this study is to examine how socio-demographic characteristics of international tourists, their travelling purpose, tourism products and characteristics of the destination influence the length of stay in Norway, by estimating a parametric survival model. Total cost of trip, purpose of travel, type of accommodation and transportation, age of tourist and geographical area are key elements that explain the variation in the length of tourist stay in Norway. The Cox proportional hazard model with time-independent covariates indicates the survival probability of tourists with less budget constraints and younger ages is higher than that of low-spending tourists and elderly travelers. Moreover, tourists with the purpose of friend and family visitation are at lower risk of leaving Norway than are tourists with other purposes. In terms of tourism products, choosing camping sites as the type of accommodation and road transport as the mode of transportation are associated with the highest survival probability. Another key finding is that tourists stay longer in northern Norway than in southern Norway; hence, on average, tourists’ overall expenditures are higher in northern Norway

Effects of ‘doctor shopping’ behaviour on prescription of addictive drugs in Sweden

Free choice of health care providers is aimed to improve the quality of health care by increasing both access to it and the competition between providers. However, it may also give patients possibilities for doctor shopping (DS) behaviour, i.e., visiting different providers to receive illicit drug prescriptions. Abuse of prescribed addictive drugs is a growing problem worldwide and is associated with increased mortality, lower quality of life and other problems on both the individual and societal level. We study DS behaviour for three categories of addictive drugs – opioid painkillers, benzodiazepine anxiolytics, and z-hypnotic sleeping drugs, in the outpatient care sector in V¨ asterbotten County, Sweden. Our dataset contains all drug prescriptions purchased by the residents of V¨ asterbotten in the period from January 2014 to April 2016 (approximately 160,000 observations). To identify signs of addictive prescription drugs abuse by DS, we analyse overlapping prescriptions. We use ‘Defined Daily Doses’ (DDDs), which is the average treatment dose of a specific drug per day for adults, as a proxy for the treatment duration. To control for medically legitimate overlaps, we compare overlapping prescriptions within a clinic with overlapping prescriptions between different clinics. Our empirical results suggest that there is a significant and positive relationship between the number of overlapping doses and the number of unique providers in the overlap. More specifically, we find that visiting different providers on average gives patients up to three additional DDDs per day. This is three times higher than the standard treatment dose. We discuss policy implications in the concluding discussion

How exchange rate affects Chinese processing trade? The case of ground fish

As imports destined for primary processing and then exporting occur across industries, in this study we developed a structural model to examine how exchange rate affects the exports of processed ground fish from China. The home demand for processed goods is incorporated into the model in accordance with the fact that the share of processed goods remaining in China tends to increase over time. China is the world’s largest import-processing centre of ground fish. The fact that China produces almost no ground fish facilitates identifying the trade data. For exports with both foreign and domestic origins, the data issue is a big challenge for empirical studies. The simulated results indicate that a 7% appreciation of the Chinese currency would raise the export price of processed ground fish by 4.06%, corresponding to a share of 40% foreign content in the processed product. In addition, the increased share of home consumption would enlarge the responses of exports to changes in the exchange rate.submittedVersio

Asymmetric price transmission in a changing food supply chain

The farmed salmon supply chain in Europe is changing. There is a growing concentration at intermediary levels in the supply chain and more product differentiation in the market. This means that different price determination processes could apply in various product sub-markets. In this study, price transmission relationships in the salmon value chain were investigated at two different product levels. Specifically, a relatively unprocessed salmon product (fresh salmon) and a more processed product (smoked salmon) were investigated since processing costs might have a significant impact on a vertical price linkage. A threshold cointegration model was applied to estimate the price transmission between the Norwegian export market and the retail markets of France and Spain. The results indicated a price transmission relationship along the fresh salmon chain in both markets; but not along the smoked salmon chains in either market. Furthermore, for the fresh salmon value chain, asymmetric adjustment was observed in both markets

Measuring the Effects of the 1998/99 Pan-European Salmon Marketing Campaign in Germany and France

In July 1997 a trade agreement between Norway and the European Union went into effect. The agreement specifies an increase in the export levy on Norwegian salmon entering the EU from 0.75% to 3.00% ad valorem. The proceeds of the levy are to be used by the Norwegian Seafood Export Council in cooperation with the Scottish Salmon Board and the Irish Salmon Growers Association for generic advertising of atlantic salmon in the European markets, the so called Pan-European Salmon Marketing Campaign. Over the Agreement’s five-year life, an estimated $30 million is expected to be invested in salmon promotion in Europe. Despite the relatively large sums being spent on these and related programs, little is known about the effects of generic advertising on consumers purchase frequency. A purpose of this research is to contribute to the understanding of these effects by examining in detail the generic advertising of atlantic salmon in Germany and France in 1998/99. By using a recursive econometric model linking awareness of the advertising in the first stage to the level of at-home consumption of salmon in the final stage the economic impact of the Pan-European campaign is investigated

Firm Size, Commodity Price, and Interdependence Between Firm-Level Stock Prices: The Case of Norwegian Salmon Industry

This study aims to investigate the interdependence between stock prices of salmon firms listed at Oslo Stock Exchange and to evaluate how this correlation is affected by firm size and salmon commodity price. Technically, we apply the Johansen’s approach (Johansen, 1991) to test cointegration between stock prices and between individual stock prices and commodity price. The time path of the long-run relationship is further examined by recursive estimations. During the sample period, we fail to confirm a common stochastic trend between the stock prices of salmon firms. This can partly explained by the various responses of firm-level stock prices to the leading firm’ stock price, depending on firm size. This may also relate to the differences between salmon stock firms’ responses to commodity price

A note on measuring the effects of exchange rate changes on Norwegian exports of seafood

The purpose of this note is to develop a very simple, yet consistent structural model of the Norwegian seafood trade that highlights how trade flows and prices are affected by changes in exchange rates. By using a class of models called Equilibrium Displacement Models (EDM’s) the model is solved for the reduced-form elasticities to indicate the effects exchange rates changes has on producer surplus. Our “best-guess” estimate of the short-run currency effect during the first eight months of 2002 indicate that the exchange caused an initial reduction in Norwegian producer surplus equal to 1.158 million kroner

Extending the Rotterdam Demand Model to Analyze Market Participation

The dependent variable in the Rotterdam model is shown to consist of two additive components: the proportionate change in the average product weight consumed by existing buyers and the proportionate change in the share of total consumers who actually purchase the product. Applying the extended model to household data on salmon consumption in France, results suggest prices have a larger effect on attracting new buyers to the product in question than on getting existing buyers to consume more. However, generic advertising was found to affect consumption intensity but have no effect on market participation in the short run

Consumer preference for fish safety inspection in Bangladesh

Consumers are entitled to eat safe food, so authorities should ensure that this right is preserved by enacting regulations and ensuring compliance through enforcement activities. Safety inspection is key to the enforcement system. Therefore, this paper presents an analysis of consumer responses to a regulatory scheme for safe seafood. The regulations consist of national and local authority enforcement and subsequent follow up activities to ensure that all wild and farmed fish in all product formats are safe. We collected primary data from two major cities in Bangladesh, Dhaka and Chittagong. The data were analysed using conditional and generic multinomial logit models to identify different utility ratios. We find that consumers expect safety control information at a low mental cost or effort. They value fish safety inspection highly in their affective reaction, whereas this value is lacking in their cognitive response. The individual parameter estimates show that consumers' preferences for both wild and farmed fish are significantly positive. They are most likely to reject frozen fish and be willing to pay less for it. Wild-caught fish creates utility for consumers without any food safety inspection, but this is not the case for farmed, frozen fish. The lack of authorised food safety inspection significantly decreases utility, suggesting a positive market potential, particularly for farmed fish with local authority safety certification