The risk assessment method in prognostic models of production systems management with account of the time factor

The possibility of planning risks assessment and the setting of the planning horizon are analysed with account of the time factor basing. A risk metrics approach is used, with risks estimated as a time function given in tabular form for the purposes of master production. Dependence of the integrated planning risks on the accuracy of forecasts used is proved and a time point is identified after which the risk assessment value increases sharply. The study enables to obtain the values of planning risks integral assessment in management problems using forecast data for groups of indicators and parameters involved in decision-making.peer-reviewe

Time Factor in Operation Research Tasks for Smart Manufacturing

The shift to the concepts Industry 4.0 and IIoT helps collect a vast amount of objective data about processes that take place in a production system, and thus, it creates background for taking advantage of theoretical results in practice; it is a trend towards synchronizing production system processes and external (market) processes in practice. In order for the target to be achieved, we use the methods that formalize management tasks in the form of predictive models, consider the cases with the computational solution of management models and decision making in production system tasks which are set based on time factor and are solved by approximate methods. We also take a look at the problems of probabilistic nature of gained decisions and address the cases, when by computational solution of tasks we need to take into account restrictions and select time step in order to obtain the decision in a table form of the function of time. The problems that we investigate help obtain and solve management tasks of production systems with help of forecasting data for a group of indices that are involved in decision making – this all helps enhance the sufficiency and quality of management decisions

Planning and Management Tasks of Innovation Projects in Production and Economic Systems

The chapter describes an approach for design and sufficient analysis of management and information models by implementing product innovation projects in production and economic systems (PESs). The obtained model and the set of parameters for project evaluation are unique and depend on the specific features of project, decision-maker preferences, and PES project. This chapter also broadly outlines criteria-based approaches to measure production risks and evaluate risks associated with PES planning. Embodied principles help to design specific simulation models and provide information support for sufficient decision-making in PES that was newly introduced at an enterprise and/or on the basis of available data systems

Application of Fuzzy Variables for Systems of Management Decision Support

The following article describes an approach covering the variety of opinions and uncertainties of estimates within the chosen technique of decision support. Mathematical operations used for assessment of options are traced to operations of working with functions that are used for assessment of possible options of decision-making. Approach proposed could be used within any technique of decision support based on elementary mathematical operations. In this article the above-mentioned approach is described under analytical hierarchy process

Production planning with parameters on the basis of dynamic predictive models : interconnection and the inertness of their interaction

The research is related to the increasing role of prognostic models in production systems management, which is associated with an increase in the requirements for managerial efficiency, the need to consider external factors affecting the system, the determination of the features of the systems in question, the examination of the processes in progress and the relationship between the chain of managerial decisions and the values of the selected control parameters. The purpose of the article is to consider and evaluate the consequences of decisions made as a chain of interrelated events in time with regard to the dynamics of the environment in which production systems operate and the variability of control parameters. The leading approach of the research considers the production system as one that is open "in terms of environment" and "in terms of the ultimate goal". The proprietary results demonstrate that the solutions obtained are of a probabilistic nature, the solutions should be set by ranges of possible values, the decision ranges can be arranged in such a way as to introduce variability into the decisions made, the choice of which will be based on factors not taken into account in the proposed method of analyzing production systems. The practical and theoretical significance of the research is that the described methodology allows to obtain optimal values of control parameters based on the objectives of the production system under consideration on the basis of its integrated assessment, taking into account the interaction and the mutual influence of the system’s parameters, their inertness and probabilistic nature, which makes it possible to increase the validity of managerial decisions and to consider the inertness of the processes taking place in the system during planning.peer-reviewe

Технические железнодорожные училища и ремесленные железнодорожные курсы

 News from the archivesThe article in Rail Business [Zheleznodorozhnoe Delo] published 110 years ago, in 1911, analysed in detail the organisation, in modern terms, of professional training and high vocational education of railway employees. Besides, it contains the opinion on curriculum, range of taught disciplines, qualifications, competences, and skills.  Пресс-архивПубликация в журнале «Железнодорожное дело» за 1911 год, то есть 110 лет назад, самым подробным образом анализировала организацию подготовки технических специалистов для железных дорог, как мы сказали бы сейчас, на базе профессионального обучения и среднего  профессионального образования. Более того, приводятся взгляды на содержание обучения, набор востребованныхдисциплин, квалификации, компетенции и навыки.

Measuring of residual stress in of light guide fiber glass microzones by means of polarized-optical method

Робота присвячена визначенню напружено-деформованого стану (НДС) в мікрозонах скловолокон світловодів поляризаційно-оптичним методом. Зокрема, розглядаються питання модернізації мікроскопічної техніки з метою можливості використання методів фотопружності, аналізу інтегральної оптичної картини смуг та визначенню НДС як розв'язку просторової осесиметричної задачі і отриманню компонент тензору напружень у мікрозонах скловолокон.The article is devoted to the measuring stressed – strained state (SSS) in microzones of light guide fiber glass by means of polarized–optical method. The problems of microscope equipment updating in order to use the methods of photoelasticity, integral optical patterns analysis of bands and determining SSS are discussed in particular. They are the solution of space axis-symmetric task and production the component of stress tensor in fiber glass microzones

Dependence of Nanoparticles Synthesis Energy Consumption in the Gas Spark Discharge on Circuit Parameters

In this paper, we study the specific energy of titanium dioxide nanoparticles synthesis in a spark discharge in the air by varying the parameters of a discharge circuit. The dependence shows a maximum at a capacitor voltage of about 2 kV and a monotonic decrease with increasing voltage

Particularities of Solving the Problems of Support for Managerial Decision Making in Production and Economic Systems Using the Statistical Data

The subject of this paper is the decision making processes in production and economic systems conditioned by implementation of goods innovation projects as well as economic and mathematical models and methods of managing the processes. The research object viewed in the paper is the construction of models of goods innovation projects implementation and the ways of implementation thereof based on the mathematical apparatus and statistical data. The paper discusses a method of constructing the models of support for managerial decision making in production and economic systems and working with them based on simulation and mathematical programming methods. The task of selecting the production and economic systems for implementation of projects as well as of forming the production and economic system portfolios is worded in general. The author also pays attention to the questions of designing and using the information systems based on simulation approaches for supporting the decision making, studying the goods innovation projects at various development stages, and the production and economic systems implementing them. A method of forming and transferring data is suggested the implementation of which will allow solving the tasks of support for decision making in production and economic systems based on statistical data and criterial methods as well as perform risk assessment and measure the sensitivity of the results obtained to changing characteristics of the projects and the influence of the environment. Keywords: decision making support; mathematical programming; volume scheduling; innovation project; production and economic system; data processing; statistical data. JEL Classifications: C44, C55, C63, C8