Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.

BACKGROUND: The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. METHODS: We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. RESULTS: We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison

Parallels between Pathogens and Gluten Peptides in Celiac Sprue

Pathogens are exogenous agents capable of causing disease in susceptible organisms. In celiac sprue, a disease triggered by partially hydrolyzed gluten peptides in the small intestine, the offending immunotoxins cannot replicate, but otherwise have many hallmarks of classical pathogens. First, dietary gluten and its peptide metabolites are ubiquitous components of the modern diet, yet only a small, genetically susceptible fraction of the human population contracts celiac sprue. Second, immunotoxic gluten peptides have certain unusual structural features that allow them to survive the harsh proteolytic conditions of the gastrointestinal tract and thereby interact extensively with the mucosal lining of the small intestine. Third, they invade across epithelial barriers intact to access the underlying gut-associated lymphoid tissue. Fourth, they possess recognition sequences for selective modification by an endogenous enzyme, transglutaminase 2, allowing for in situ activation to a more immunotoxic form via host subversion. Fifth, they precipitate a T cell–mediated immune reaction comprising both innate and adaptive responses that causes chronic inflammation of the small intestine. Sixth, complete elimination of immunotoxic gluten peptides from the celiac diet results in remission, whereas reintroduction of gluten in the diet causes relapse. Therefore, in analogy with antibiotics, orally administered proteases that reduce the host's exposure to the immunotoxin by accelerating gluten peptide destruction have considerable therapeutic potential. Last but not least, notwithstanding the power of in vitro methods to reconstitute the essence of the immune response to gluten in a celiac patient, animal models for the disease, while elusive, are likely to yield fundamentally new systems-level insights

Transcriptional and Linkage Analyses Identify Loci that Mediate the Differential Macrophage Response to Inflammatory Stimuli and Infection

Macrophages display flexible activation states that range between pro-inflammatory (classical activation) and anti-inflammatory (alternative activation). These macrophage polarization states contribute to a variety of organismal phenotypes such as tissue remodeling and susceptibility to infectious and inflammatory diseases. Several macrophage- or immune-related genes have been shown to modulate infectious and inflammatory disease pathogenesis. However, the potential role that differences in macrophage activation phenotypes play in modulating differences in susceptibility to infectious and inflammatory disease is just emerging. We integrated transcriptional profiling and linkage analyses to determine the genetic basis for the differential murine macrophage response to inflammatory stimuli and to infection with the obligate intracellular parasite Toxoplasma gondii. We show that specific transcriptional programs, defined by distinct genomic loci, modulate macrophage activation phenotypes. In addition, we show that the difference between AJ and C57BL/6J macrophages in controlling Toxoplasma growth after stimulation with interferon gamma and tumor necrosis factor alpha mapped to chromosome 3, proximal to the Guanylate binding protein (Gbp) locus that is known to modulate the murine macrophage response to Toxoplasma. Using an shRNA-knockdown strategy, we show that the transcript levels of an RNA helicase, Ddx1, regulates strain differences in the amount of nitric oxide produced by macrophage after stimulation with interferon gamma and tumor necrosis factor. Our results provide a template for discovering candidate genes that modulate macrophage-mediated complex traits