Dynamics of Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Impact on the Macroeconomy

A large literature lauds the benefits of central bank transparency and credibility, but when a central bank like the U.S. Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, is not specific to the extent it targets employment versus price stability, and is not specific to the magnitude interest rates should change in response to these targets, market participants must depend largely on past data to form expectations about monetary policy. We suppose market participants estimate a Taylor-like regression equation to understand the conduct of monetary policy, which likely guides their short-run and long-run expectations. When the Federal Reserve's actions deviate from its historical targets for macroeconomic variables, an environment of greater uncertainty may be the result. We quantify this degree of uncertainty by measuring and aggregating recent deviations of the federal funds rate from econometric forecasts predicted by constant gain learning. We incorporate this measure of uncertainty into a VAR model with ARCH shocks to measure the effect monetary policy uncertainty has on inflation, output growth, unemployment, and the volatility of these variables. We find that a higher degree of uncertainty regarding monetary policy is associated with greater volatility of output growth and unemployment.Uncertainty; learning; volatility; Taylor rule; vector autoregression; ARCH.

How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Al-lied Victory in World War II, by Phillips PaysonO’Brien

This book provides a detailed reexamination of the main contributory factor leading to Allied victory in World War II. In many ways the book’s argument is not so much new as it is a revision of the revisionists. During the Cold War the narrative was largely that the Western Allies had triumphed over Germany and Japan with some help from the Soviet Union

A survey of low-velocity collisional features in Saturn's F ring

Small (~50km scale), irregular features seen in Cassini images to be emanating from Saturn's F ring have been termed mini-jets by Attree et al. (2012). One particular mini-jet was tracked over half an orbital period, revealing its evolution with time and suggesting a collision with a local moonlet as its origin. In addition to these data we present here a much more detailed analysis of the full catalogue of over 800 F ring mini-jets, examining their distribution, morphology and lifetimes in order to place constraints on the underlying moonlet population. We find mini-jets randomly located in longitude around the ring, with little correlation to the moon Prometheus, and randomly distributed in time, over the full Cassini tour to date. They have a tendency to cluster together, forming complicated `multiple' structures, and have typical lifetimes of ~1d. Repeated observations of some features show significant evolution, including the creation of new mini-jets, implying repeated collisions by the same object. This suggests a population of <~1km radius objects with some internal strength and orbits spread over 100km in semi-major axis relative to the F ring but with the majority within 20km. These objects likely formed in the ring under, and were subsequently scattered onto differing orbits by, the perturbing action of Prometheus. This reinforces the idea of the F ring as a region with a complex balance between collisions, disruption and accretion.Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in Icarus. Supplementary information available at http://www.maths.qmul.ac.uk/~attree/mini-jets

Studies of Metal Poor T Dwarfs in UKIDSS

I have used blue near-infrared colours to select a group of UKIDSS T dwarfs with spectral types later than T4. From amongst these I identify two kinematic halo T-dwarf candi- dates. Blue near-infrared colours have been attributed to collisionally-induced hydrogen absorption, which is enhanced by either high surface gravity or low metallicity. Proper motions are measured and distances estimated, allowing the determination of tangential velocities. U and V components are estimated for our objects by assuming Vrad = 0. From this, ULAS J0926+0835 is found to have U = 62 kms−1 and V = −140 kms−1 and ULAS J1319+1209 is found to have U = 192 kms−1 and V = −92 kms−1. These values are consistent with potential halo membership. However, surprisingly, these are not the bluest objects in the selection. The bluest is ULAS J1233+1219, with J −K = −1.16±0.07, and surprisingly this object is found to have thin disc-like U and V . Our sample also contains Hip 73786B, which I find to be a companion to the star Hip 73786. Hip 73786 is a metal- poor star, with [Fe/H]= −0.3 ± 0.1 and is located at a distance of 19±0.7 pc. U, V,W space velocity components are calculated for Hip 73786A and B, finding that U = −48±7 kms−1, V = −75 ± 4 kms−1 and W = −44 ± 8 kms−1. From the properties of the pri- mary, Hip 73786B is found to be at least 1.6Gyr old. As a metal poor object, Hip 73786B represents an important addition to the sample of known T dwarf benchmarks. Using mid-infrared data from WISE, I also identify T dwarfs with abnormally-red H − W2 and consider possible causes for their extreme colours. In particular I exam- ine three prominent examples of this phenomenon, ULAS J1416+1348B, 2MASS J0939- 2448 and BD+01o 2920B. A plot of spectral type against MW2-magnitude suggests that ULAS J1416+1348B is potentially an unresolved binary, similar to 2MASS J0939-2448. However, the plot also indicates that BD+01o 2920B is not an unresolved binary. I also present new FIRE spectroscopy for ULAS J1416+1348B and 2MASS J0939-2448. These data show that ULAS J1416+1348B has a similar shape to the Y -band spectrum to that of BD+01o 2920B, thus suggesting that the two objects have a similar metallicity, whereas 2MASS J0939-2448 appears to be a more metal-rich object. Using a new parallactic dis- tance, I derive a luminosity of (6.9±0.7)×1020W for ULAS J1416+1348B. I also find a radial velocity of −39 ± 1 kms−1 for this object. The agreement between this and that of the L dwarf SDSS J1416+1348A confirms that these two objects are physically-associated. I also present a set of simulated unresolved binaries; the colours of these systems do not appear to redden significantly with the addition of cooler companions. From this, I suggest that the colours of ULAS J1416+1348B and BD+01o 2920B cannot be solely attributed to any possible unresolved companions; for these two objects, composition and/or surface gravity must be playing a substantial role. Consideration of model predictions provides extra evidence for this argument, showing as it does that high log g and low metallicity can redden H − W2 colours by as much as »0.5mag as compared to a high-metallicity and low log g object of the same effective temperature. I also present kinematics and photometry for several more new candidate low-metallicity T dwarfs. Spectra are also presented, where available. In addition I provide new follow-up JHK spectroscopy for ULAS J0926+0835, ULAS J1233+1219 and ULAS J1319+1209. These new spectra allow full JHK-based spectral typing for these objects