Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products.

The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs). Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF) and Classical swine fever (CSF) introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine) to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10-3). Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10-3 for ASF, and 2.5*10-3 for CSF) higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10-4 for ASF, and 1.56*10-3 for CSF). This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products). The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products), is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US

New strategies for the prevention and control of african swine fever

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Veterinaria, Departamento de Sanidad Animal, leída el 29-10-2014Depto. de Sanidad AnimalFac. de VeterinariaTRUEunpu

Virus Ebola-Reston. ¿el cerdo, un nuevo hospedador?

Ebola-Reston is species of the Ebola virus that was identified for the first time in 1989 in the United States. Several outbreaks have happened since then, affecting monkeys and humans in contact with these, without producing any disease or death in the latter. At the end of 2008 this virus was detected for the first time in pigs of two farms in the Philippines. The main objective of this work has been to analyze the unique outbreak of Ebola-Reston in pigs, and to perform an epidemiological analysis that could help to raise hypothesis about the origin of the virus.. The study of this outbreak confirms the pig as a new host, able to transmit the infection to other swine. This represents a new risk for animal health and public health, due to the virulence of the virus and the importance of the pig for human feeding.Ebola-Reston es una especie de virus Ebola que fue identificado por primera vez en 1989 en Estados Unidos afectando a macacos. Desde entonces han sucedido varios brotes, afectando a monos y a los seres humanos que han contactado con ellos, sin producir enfermedad ni muerte en las personas hasta la fecha. A finales de 2008 este virus fue detectado en cerdos de dos granjas en Filipinas, siendo la primera vez que se describe que esta especie animal se ve afectada por el virus Ebola-Reston. El objetivo de este trabajo ha sido analizar este único brote de Ebola-Reston en ganado porcino y realizar un estudio epidemiológico que ayude a plantear hipótesis sobre el posible origen del virus. El estudio confirma al cerdo como nuevo hospedador, capaz de transmitir la infección a sus semejantes. Esto supone un nuevo peligro tanto a nivel de sanidad animal, como de salud pública, debido a la gravedad de la enfermedad producida por este virus y a la importancia del cerdo en la alimentación humana

Esquizofrenia y teoría de la mente: estudio con pacientes esquizofrénicos crónicos

La inadaptación social es un rasgo típico en la esquizofrenia. Detrás de esta inadaptación, la Teoría de la Mente (ToM) juega un papel muy importante. La ToM ha sido muy estudiada en pacientes con esquizofrenia, sin embargo, la literatura muestra algunas contradicciones. La primera, si la ToM depende de la neurocognición y, la segunda si la ToM tendría algún tipo de relación con la sintomatología en la esquizofrenia. En el presente estudio se comparó un grupo de 14 sujetos sanos y 14 esquizofrénicos (se clasificaron según sintomatología, mediante la Escala de Síndrome Negativo o Positivo) y divididos en dos subgrupos: siete realizaban rehabilitación cognitiva (RC) y siete no (NRC). Se les suministró varias tareas de ToM y los análisis nos muestran que esquizofrénicos presentan una ToM deteriorada respecto a los sanos, que el grupo de RC no realiza mejor las tareas de ToM que grupo NRC, y que la sintomatología positiva se relaciona con peores resultados en la mayoría de las tareas, aunque las diferencias no son significativas

Evaluation of the spatial patterns and risk factors, including backyard pigs, for classical swine fever occurrence in Bulgaria using a Bayesian model

The spatial pattern and epidemiology of backyard pig farming and other low bio-security pig production systems and their role in the occurrence of classical swine fever (CSF) is described and evaluated. A spatial Bayesian model was used to explore the risk factors, including human demographics, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The analyses were performed for Bulgaria, which has a large number of backyard farms (96% of all pig farms in the country are classified as backyard farms), and it is one of the countries for which both backyard pig and farm counts were available. Results reveal that the high-risk areas are typically concentrated in areas with small family farms, high numbers of outgoing pig shipments and low levels of personal consumption (i.e. economically deprived areas). Identification of risk factors and high-risk areas for CSF will allow to targeting risk-based surveillance strategies leading to prevention, control and, ultimately, elimination of the disease in Bulgaria and other countries with similar socio-epidemiological condition

Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy

This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions

African swine fever virus transmission cycles in Central Europe: evaluation of wild boar-soft tick contacts through detection of antibodies against Ornithodoros erraticus saliva antigen.

BACKGROUND African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most complex viral diseases affecting both domestic and wild pigs. It is caused by ASF virus (ASFV), the only DNA virus which can be efficiently transmitted by an arthropod vector, soft ticks of the genus Ornithodoros. These ticks can be part of ASFV-transmission cycles, and in Europe, O. erraticus was shown to be responsible for long-term maintenance of ASFV in Spain and Portugal. In 2014, the disease has been reintroduced into the European Union, affecting domestic pigs and, importantly, also the Eurasian wild boar population. In a first attempt to assess the risk of a tick-wild boar transmission cycle in Central Europe that would further complicate eradication of the disease, over 700 pre-existing serum samples from wild boar hunted in four representative German Federal States were investigated for the presence of antibodies directed against salivary antigen of Ornithodoros erraticus ticks using an indirect ELISA format. RESULTS Out of these samples, 16 reacted with moderate to high optical densities that could be indicative of tick bites in sampled wild boar. However, these samples did not show a spatial clustering (they were collected from distant geographical regions) and were of bad quality (hemolysis/impurities). Furthermore, all positive samples came from areas with suboptimal climate for soft ticks. For this reason, false positive reactions are likely. CONCLUSION In conclusion, the study did not provide stringent evidence for soft tick-wild boar contact in the investigated German Federal States and thus, a relevant involvement in the epidemiology of ASF in German wild boar is unlikely. This fact would facilitate the eradication of ASF in the area, although other complex relations (wild boar biology and interactions with domestic pigs) need to be considered

Análisis de la deserción en los SPOOCs a partir de la retroalimentación digital y la interacción sincrónica y asincrónica

Los SPOOCs (por sus siglas en inglés Self Paced Online'Open Curses) han revolucionado el sistema de enseñanza debido a que se pueden realizar al propio ritmo del estudiante y tienen ventajas como: la ausencia de pagos, flexibilidad de horarios, acceso digital y falta de requerimientos previos al momento de la inscripción. Sin embargo, la cantidad de estudiantes que no logran terminar un curso alcanza el 61 %. Existen diferentes razones relacionadas con la deserción en los SPOOCs, según la literatura, la retroalimentación y la interacción son variables que pueden tener un impacto significativo en la disminución de la deserción del curso, ya que estas desarrollan positivamente aspectos emocionales y motivacionales de los estudiantes de cursos de educación virtual. Las herramientas escogidas para la interacción fueron ChatBot y Foro a la vez que para retroalimentación se escogieron videos y textos aclaratorios, para la primera variable se tuvo en cuenta que los más jóvenes tienen preferencia por una comunicación sincrónica y los mayores prefieren comunicaciones asincronas, para la segunda variable se buscaron herramientas que respondieran a las formas de aprendizaje de lecto-escritura, visual y auditiva. El resultado de la investigación suponía hallar una relación significativa entre una combinación de estas herramientas y la deserción, para lograr esto, se siguió un diseño factorial 2x2 que implicaba el desarrollo de 8 SPOOCs con la misma temática (Pronósticos de Ventas) donde cada uno contaba con una combinación diferente de herramientas. El proceso de creación se constituyó a partir de la definición del Avatar, la estructuración de los cursos en la plataforma MOODLE y el reclutamiento digital, el desarrollo se basó en un análisis inferencial con pruebas Log Lineal y de hipótesis, soporte en terceros especializados y publicidad digital. Una vez cada SPOOC había sido configurado correctamente y contaba con los estudiantes necesarios, se definió un tiempo de duración de 4 semanas para la realización del curso donde se verificaba semanalmente el correcto funcionamiento de la plataforma, las validaciones semanales permitían hacerle seguimiento al avance de los estudiantes en los cursos e identificar oportunidades de mejora para el curso comprobatorio. El análisis de los resultados de los 8 cursos arrojó que un curso con la presencia de ChatBot y retroalimentación por video tenía el mayor impacto en la disminución de la deserción, esto se validó a partir de un análisis inferencial que se componía de tres fases; experimental, relacional-causal y longitudinal, esto permitió validar apropiadamente los niveles de significancia existentes entre las variables abordadas y la disminución de la deserción, todo esto haciendo uso del programa SPSS. Un curso comprobatorio constituyó el final de esta investigación, esto fue importante para validar que la combinación de herramientas que disminuía la deserción fuese verídica, el curso mantuvo los mismos parámetros de los cursos iniciales y se hicieron algunas correcciones no significativas de contenido con el fin de mantener la ecuanimidad de la investigación.SPOOCs (Self-Paced Online Open Courses) have revolutionized the learning system since they can be done at the student's pace and have other advantages like not having a fee, being flexible with people's schedules, being available digitally and not having any requirements for enrolment. However, a large portion of students, reaching as high as 60%, do not get to finish the course. There are numerous reasons related to the desertion of SPOOCs. According to literature, feedback and interaction are variables that have a significant impact in the reduction of this desertion. This is because they develop positive emotional and motivational aspects in the students of the online courses. In this research, the tools chosen were a ChatBot and Forums. For clarifying feedback videos and text were presented. The first variable that was considered was that younger people have a preference in synchronous communication while older people have a preference in asynchronous communication. For the second variable different tools were found that would respond to learning styles for reading, writing, visual and listening. The results hoped to find a significant relation between the combinations of these tools and the desertion of the students. To accomplish this, a 2x2 factorial design that involved the development of 8 SPOOCs with the same theme “Sales Prognostics” each one having a different tool combination. The creation process began from the definition of an Avatar, the making of the courses in the MOODLE platform and the digital recruitment. This creation process was based on a inferential analysis with Log Lineal and hypothesis tests, specialized third party support and digital publicity. A duration time of 4 weeks was set once each SPOOC was correctly arranged and had the right number of students was enrolled. A weekly check was performed for the functions of the platform. These weekly checks allowed to follow up the progress of the students in the course and identify improvement opportunities that were added in the evidential course. An analysis was made of the results of the 8 courses. It determined that the presence of a ChatBot and video feedback had the biggest impact in the decrease of desertion. This was validated through an inferential longitudinal analysis that comprised three stages; experimental, casual-relational, and longitudinal. This analysis allowed to properly valídate the existing significance levels between the different types of used variables and the reduction of desertion. This analysis was all done using the software SPSS. An evidential course established the end of the investigation which was important to valídate that the combination of tools that were stablished to reduce desertion were effective and true. The course maintained the same parameters as the initial courses and some non-significant content corrections were made with the purpose of maintain the equanimity of the investigation.Ingeniero (a) IndustrialPregrad

Evaluation of the spatial patterns and risk factors, including backyard pigs, for classical swine fever occurrence in Bulgaria using a Bayesian model

The spatial pattern and epidemiology of backyard pig farming and other low bio-security pig production systems and their role in the occurrence of classical swine fever (CSF) is described and evaluated. A spatial Bayesian model was used to explore the risk factors, including human demographics, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The analyses were performed for Bulgaria, which has a large number of backyard farms (96% of all pig farms in the country are classified as backyard farms), and it is one of the countries for which both backyard pig and farm counts were available. Results reveal that the high-risk areas are typically concentrated in areas with small family farms, high numbers of outgoing pig shipments and low levels of personal consumption (i.e. economically deprived areas). Identification of risk factors and high-risk areas for CSF will allow to targeting risk-based surveillance strategies leading to prevention, control and, ultimately, elimination of the disease in Bulgaria and other countries with similar socio-epidemiological conditions