Four different study designs to evaluate vaccine safety were equally validated with contrasting limitations

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a simulation study to empirically compare four study designs [cohort, case-control, risk-interval, self-controlled case series (SCCS)] used to assess vaccine safety. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Using Vaccine Safety Datalink data (a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded project), we simulated 250 case sets of an acute illness within a cohort of vaccinated and unvaccinated children. We constructed the other three study designs from the cohort at three different incident rate ratios (IRRs, 2.00, 3.00, and 4.00), 15 levels of decreasing disease incidence, and two confounding levels (20%, 40%) for both fixed and seasonal confounding. Each of the design-specific study samples was analyzed with a regression model. The design-specific beta; estimates were compared. RESULTS: The beta; estimates of the case-control, risk-interval, and SCCS designs were within 5% of the true risk parameters or cohort estimates. However, the case-control\u27s estimates were less precise, less powerful, and biased by fixed confounding. The estimates of SCCS and risk-interval designs were biased by unadjusted seasonal confounding. CONCLUSIONS: All the methods were valid designs, with contrasting strengths and weaknesses. In particular, the SCCS method proved to be an efficient and valid alternative to the cohort method

Epidemiologic Risk Factors for In Situ and Invasive Breast Cancers Among Postmenopausal Women in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study

Comparing risk factor associations between invasive breast cancers and possible precursors may further our understanding of factors related to initiation versus progression. Accordingly, among 190,325 postmenopausal participants in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011), we compared the association between risk factors and incident ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS; n = 1,453) with that of risk factors and invasive ductal carcinomas (n = 7,525); in addition, we compared the association between risk factors and lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS; n = 186) with that of risk factors and invasive lobular carcinomas (n = 1,191). Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated from multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. We used case-only multivariable logistic regression to test for heterogeneity in associations. Younger age at menopause was associated with a higher risk of DCIS but lower risks of LCIS and invasive ductal carcinomas (P for heterogeneity < 0.01). Prior breast biopsy was more strongly associated with the risk of LCIS than the risk of DCIS (P for heterogeneity = 0.04). Increased risks associated with use of menopausal hormone therapy were stronger for LCIS than DCIS (P for heterogeneity = 0.03) and invasive lobular carcinomas (P for heterogeneity < 0.01). Associations were similar for race, age at menarche, age at first birth, family history, alcohol consumption, and smoking status, which suggests that most risk factor associations are similar for in situ and invasive cancers and may influence early stages of tumorigenesis. The differential associations observed for various factors may provide important clues for understanding the etiology of certain breast cancers

Estimation of the national disease burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness in Kenya and Guatemala : a novel methodology

Background: Knowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden. Methods and Findings: This method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases. Conclusions: Influenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries

Short-term changes in ultrasound tomography measures of breast density and treatment-associated endocrine symptoms after tamoxifen therapy

Although breast density decline with tamoxifen therapy is associated with greater therapeutic benefit, limited data suggest that endocrine symptoms may also be associated with improved breast cancer outcomes. However, it is unknown whether endocrine symptoms are associated with reductions in breast density after tamoxifen initiation. We evaluated treatment-associated endocrine symptoms and breast density change among 74 women prescribed tamoxifen in a 12-month longitudinal study. Treatment-associated endocrine symptoms and sound speed measures of breast density, assessed via novel whole breast ultrasound tomography (m/s), were ascertained before tamoxifen (T0) and at 1-3 (T1), 4-6 (T2), and 12 months (T3) after initiation. CYP2D6 status was genotyped, and tamoxifen metabolites were measured at T3. Using multivariable linear regression, we estimated mean change in breast density by treatment-associated endocrine symptoms adjusting for age, race, menopausal status, body mass index, and baseline density. Significant breast density declines were observed in women with treatment-associated endocrine symptoms (mean change (95% confidence interval) at T1:-0.26 m/s (-2.17,1.65); T2:-2.12 m/s (-4.02,-0.22); T3:-3.73 m/s (-5.82,-1.63); p-trend = 0.004), but not among women without symptoms (p-trend = 0.18) (p-interaction = 0.02). Similar declines were observed with increasing symptom frequency (p-trends for no symptoms = 0.91; low/moderate symptoms = 0.03; high symptoms = 0.004). Density declines remained among women with detectable tamoxifen metabolites or intermediate/efficient CYP2D6 metabolizer status. Emergent/worsening endocrine symptoms are associated with significant, early declines in breast density after tamoxifen initiation. Further studies are needed to assess whether these observations predict clinical outcomes. If confirmed, endocrine symptoms may be a proxy for tamoxifen response and useful for patients and providers to encourage adherence

An analysis of national target groups for monovalent 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine and trivalent seasonal influenza vaccines in 2009-10 and 2010-11

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Vaccination is generally considered to be the best primary prevention measure against influenza virus infection. Many countries encourage specific target groups of people to undertake vaccination, often with financial subsidies or a priority list. To understand differential patterns of national target groups for influenza vaccination before, during and after the 2009 influenza pandemic, we reviewed and analyzed the country-specific policies in the corresponding time periods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Information on prioritized groups targeted to receive seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines was derived from a multi-step internet search of official health department websites, press releases, media sources and academic journal articles. We assessed the frequency and consistency of targeting 20 different groups within populations which are associated with age, underlying medical conditions, role or occupations among different countries and vaccines. Information on subsidies provided to specific target groups was also extracted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We analyzed target groups for 33 (seasonal 2009 and 2009-10 vaccines), 72 (monovalent pandemic 2009-10 vaccine) and 34 (seasonal 2010 and 2010-11 vaccines) countries. In 2009-10, the elderly, those with chronic illness and health care workers were common targets for the seasonal vaccine. Comparatively, the elderly, care home residents and workers, animal contacts and close contacts were less frequently targeted to receive the pandemic vaccine. Pregnant women, obese persons, essential community workers and health care workers, however, were more commonly targeted. After the pandemic, pregnant women, obese persons, health care and care home workers, and close contacts were more commonly targeted to receive the seasonal vaccine compared to 2009-10, showing continued influence from the pandemic. Many of the countries provided free vaccines, partial subsidies, reimbursements or national health insurance coverage to specific target groups and over one-third of the countries offered universal subsidy regarding the pandemic vaccine. There was also some inconsistency between countries in target groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Differences in target groups between countries may reflect variable objectives as well as uncertainties regarding the transmission dynamics, severity and age-specific immunity against influenza viruses before and after vaccination. Clarification on these points is essential to elucidate optimal and object-oriented vaccination strategies.</p

Mammographic Density Decline, Tamoxifen Response, and Prognosis by Molecular Characteristics of Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer

Background: Mammographic breast density (MBD) decline post-tamoxifen initiation is a favorable prognostic factor in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer (BC) and has potential utility as a biomarker of tamoxifen response. However, the prognostic value of MBD decline may vary by molecular characteristics among ER-positive patients. Methods: We investigated associations between MBD decline (≥10% vs <10%) and breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM) among ER-positive breast cancer patients aged 36-87 years at diagnosis treated with tamoxifen at Kaiser Permanente Northwest (1990-2008). Patients who died of BC (case patients; n = 62) were compared with those who did not (control patients; n = 215) overall and by tumor molecular characteristics (immunohistochemistry [IHC]-based subtype [luminal A-like: ER-positive/progesterone receptor [PR]-positive/HER2-negative/low Ki67; luminal B-like: ER-positive and 1 or more of PR-negative, HER2-positive, high Ki67] and modified IHC [mIHC]-based recurrence score of ER/PR/Ki67). Percent MBD was measured in the unaffected breast at baseline mammogram (mean = 6 months before tamoxifen initiation) and follow-up (mean = 12 months post-tamoxifen initiation). Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed from logistic regression models. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results: MBD decline was statistically significantly associated with reduced risk of BCSM overall (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.92). This association was, however, stronger among women with aggressive tumor characteristics including luminal B-like (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.04 to 0.73) vs A-like (OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.19 to 2.92); large (OR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.08 to 0.78) vs small (OR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.04 to 3.79) tumors; PR-negative (OR = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.001 to 0.37) vs PR-positive (OR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.18 to 1.40) disease; and high (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.93) vs low (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.10 to 2.09) mIHC3 score. Conclusion: The findings support MBD decline as a prognostic marker of tamoxifen response among patients with aggressive ER-positive BC phenotypes, for whom understanding treatment effectiveness is critical

Association of Adjuvant Tamoxifen and Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy With Contralateral Breast Cancer Risk Among US Women With Breast Cancer in a General Community Setting

Within ten years after breast cancer diagnosis, 5% of patients develop contralateral primary breast cancer (CBC). Randomized trials have found that tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitors (AIs) reduce CBC risk. However, little is known about the magnitude and duration of protective effects within the context of “real world” clinical management settings, where varying durations and gaps in treatment are common

Using digital pathology to understand epithelial characteristics of benign breast disease among women undergoing diagnostic image-guided breast biopsy

Delayed terminal duct lobular unit (TDLU) involution is associated with elevated mammographic breast density (MD). Both are independent breast cancer risk factors among women with benign breast disease (BBD). Prior digital analyses of normal breast tissues revealed that epithelial nuclear density (END) and TDLU involution are inversely correlated. Accordingly, we examined associations of END, TDLU involution, and MD in BBD clinical biopsies. This study included digitized images of 262 representative image-guided hematoxylin and eosin-stained biopsies from 224 women diagnosed with BBD, enrolled within the cross-sectional BREAST-Stamp project that were visually assessed for TDLU involution (TDLU count/100 mm2, median TDLU span and median acini count per TDLU). A digital algorithm estimated nuclei count per unit epithelial area, or END. Single X-ray absorptiometry of prebiopsy ipsilateral craniocaudal digital mammograms measured global and localized MD surrounding the biopsy region. Adjusted ordinal logistic regression models assessed relationships between tertiles of TDLU and END measures. Analysis of covariance examined mean differences in MD across END tertiles. TDLU measures were positively associated with increasing END tertiles [TDLU count/100 mm2, ORT3vsT1: 3.42, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.87-6.28; acini count/TDLUT3vsT1, OR: 2.40, 95% CI, 1.39-4.15]. END was significantly associated with localized, but not, global MD. Relationships were most apparent among patients with nonproliferative BBD. These findings suggest that quantitative END reflects different but complementary information to the histologic information captured by visual TDLU and radiologic MD measures and merits continued evaluation in assessing cellularity of breast parenchyma to understand the etiology of BBD

Impact of flu on hospital admissions during 4 flu seasons in Spain, 2000–2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Seasonal flu epidemics in the European region cause high numbers of cases and deaths. Flu-associated mortality has been estimated but morbidity studies are necessary to understand the burden of disease in the population. Our objective was to estimate the excess hospital admissions in Spain of diseases associated with influenza during four epidemic influenza periods (2000 – 2004).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Hospital discharge registers containing pneumonia, chronic bronchitis, heart failure and flu from all public hospitals in Spain were reviewed for the years 2000 to 2004. Epidemic periods were defined by data from the Sentinel Surveillance System. Excess hospitalisations were calculated as the difference between the average number of weekly hospitalisations/100,000 in epidemic and non-epidemic periods. Flu epidemics were defined for seasons 2001/2002, 2002/2003, 2003/2004.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A(H3N2) was the dominant circulating serotype in 2001/2002 and 2003/2004. Negligible excess hospitalisations were observed during the 2002/2003 epidemic where A(H1N1) was circulating. During 2000/2001, flu activity remained below threshold levels and therefore no epidemic period was defined. In two epidemic periods studied a delay between the peak of the influenza epidemic and the peak of hospitalisations was observed. During flu epidemics with A(H3N2), excess hospitalisations were higher in men and in persons <5 and >64 years higher than 10 per 100,000. Pneumonia accounted for 70% of all flu associated hospitalisations followed by chronic bronchitis. No excess flu-specific hospitalisations were recorded during all seasons.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Flu epidemics have an impact on hospital morbidity in Spain. Further studies that include other variables, such as temperature and humidity, are necessary and will deepen our understanding of the role of each factor during flu epidemics and their relation with morbidity.</p