The episodic random utility model unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To present an episodic random utility model that unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation. METHODS: First, we introduce two alternative random utility models (RUMs) for health preferences: the episodic RUM and the more common instant RUM. For the interpretation of time trade-off (TTO) responses, we show that the episodic model implies a coefficient estimator, and the instant model implies a mean slope estimator. Secondly, we demonstrate these estimators and the differences between the estimates for 42 health states using TTO responses from the seminal Measurement and Valuation in Health (MVH) study conducted in the United Kingdom. Mean slopes are estimates with and without Dolan's transformation of worse-than-death (WTD) responses. Finally, we demonstrate an exploded probit estimator, an extension of the coefficient estimator for discrete choice data that accommodates both TTO and rank responses. RESULTS: By construction, mean slopes are less than or equal to coefficients, because slopes are fractions and, therefore, magnify downward errors in WTD responses. The Dolan transformation of WTD responses causes mean slopes to increase in similarity to coefficient estimates, yet they are not equivalent (i.e., absolute mean difference = 0.179). Unlike mean slopes, coefficient estimates demonstrate strong concordance with rank-based predictions (Lin's rho = 0.91). Combining TTO and rank responses under the exploded probit model improves the identification of health state values, decreasing the average width of confidence intervals from 0.057 to 0.041 compared to TTO only results. CONCLUSION: The episodic RUM expands upon the theo

The impact of diabetes-related complications on healthcare costs: results from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS Study No. 65)

<b>Aims</b> To develop a model for estimating the immediate and long-term healthcare costs associated with seven diabetes-related complications in patients with Type 2 diabetes participating in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). <b>Methods</b> The costs associated with some major complications were estimated using data on 5102 UKPDS patients (mean age 52.4 years at diagnosis). In-patient and out-patient costs were estimated using multiple regression analysis based on costs calculated from the length of admission multiplied by the average specialty cost and a survey of 3488 UKPDS patients’ healthcare usage conducted in 1996–1997. <b>Results</b> Using the model, the estimate of the cost of first complications were as follows: amputation £8459 (95% confidence interval £5295, £13 200); non-fatal myocardial infarction £4070 (£3580, £4722); fatal myocardial infarction £1152 (£941, £1396); fatal stroke £3383 (£1935, £5431); non-fatal stroke £2367 (£1599, £3274); ischaemic heart disease £1959 (£1467, £2541); heart failure £2221 (£1690, £2896); cataract extraction £1553 (£1320, £1855); and blindness in one eye £872 (£526, £1299). The annual average in-patient cost of events in subsequent years ranged from £631 (£403, £896) for heart failure to £105 (£80, £142) for cataract extraction. Non-in-patient costs for macrovascular complications were £315 (£247, £394) and for microvascular complications were £273 (£215, £343) in the year of the event. In each subsequent year the costs were, respectively, £258 (£228, £297) and £204 (£181, £255). <b>Conclusions</b> These results provide estimates of the immediate and long-term healthcare costs associated with seven diabetes-related complications

Conclusions: reducing Burglary – summing Up

This book presented original and innovative research which has direct practical and policy implications for burglary security. The concluding chapter provides a synthesis of the research evidence discussed in the previous chapters addressing three broad themes: burglary trends and patterns; which security devices work and how; and burglary prevention lessons. The chapter ends with suggestions for future research

Are adolescents with high socioeconomic status more likely to engage in alcohol and illicit drug use in early adulthood?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous literature has shown a divergence by age in the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and substance use: adolescents with low SES are more likely to engage in substance use, as are adults with high SES. However, there is growing evidence that adolescents with high SES are also at high risk for substance abuse. The objective of this study is to examine this relationship longitudinally, that is, whether wealthier adolescents are more likely than those with lower SES to engage in substance use in early adulthood.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study analyzed data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (AddHealth), a longitudinal, nationally-representative survey of secondary school students in the United States. Logistic regression models were analyzed examining the relationship between adolescent SES (measured by parental education and income) and substance use in adulthood, controlling for substance use in adolescence and other covariates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Higher parental education is associated with higher rates of binge drinking, marijuana and cocaine use in early adulthood. Higher parental income is associated with higher rates of binge drinking and marijuana use. No statistically significant results are found for crystal methamphetamine or other drug use. Results are not sensitive to the inclusion of college attendance by young adulthood as a sensitivity analysis. However, when stratifying by race, results are consistent for white non-Hispanics, but no statistically significant results are found for non-whites. This may be a reflection of the smaller sample size of non-whites, but may also reflect that these trends are driven primarily by white non-Hispanics.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Previous research shows numerous problems associated with substance use in young adults, including problems in school, decreased employment, increases in convictions of driving under the influence (DUI) and accidental deaths. Much of the previous literature is focused on lower SES populations. Therefore, it is possible that teachers, parents and school administrators in wealthier schools may not perceive as great to address substance abuse treatment in their schools. This study can inform teachers, parents, school administrators and program officials of the need for addressing drug abuse prevention activities to this population of students.</p

Protection from annual flooding is correlated with increased cholera prevalence in Bangladesh: a zero-inflated regression analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alteration of natural or historical aquatic flows can have unintended consequences for regions where waterborne diseases are endemic and where the epidemiologic implications of such change are poorly understood. The implementation of flood protection measures for a portion of an intensely monitored population in Matlab, Bangladesh, allows us to examine whether cholera outcomes respond positively or negatively to measures designed to control river flooding.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a zero inflated negative binomial model, we examine how selected covariates can simultaneously account for household clusters reporting no cholera from those with positive counts as well as distinguishing residential areas with low counts from areas with high cholera counts. Our goal is to examine how residence within or outside a flood protected area interacts with the probability of cholera presence and the effect of flood protection on the magnitude of cholera prevalence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In Matlab, living in a household that is protected from annual monsoon flooding appears to have no significant effect on whether the household experiences cholera, net of other covariates. However, counter-intuitively, among households where cholera is reported, living within the flood protected region significantly increases the number of cholera cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The construction of dams or other water impoundment strategies for economic or social motives can have profound and unanticipated consequences for waterborne disease. Our results indicate that the construction of a flood control structure in rural Bangladesh is correlated with an increase in cholera cases for residents protected from annual monsoon flooding. Such a finding requires attention from both the health community and from governments and non-governmental organizations involved in ongoing water management schemes.</p

Interactions between cigarette and alcohol consumption in rural China

The objective of this paper is to analyze interdependencies between cigarette and alcohol consumption in rural China, using panel data for 10 years (1994–2003) for rural areas of 26 Chinese provinces. There have been many studies in which cigarette and alcohol consumption have been considered separately but few to date for China on interactions between the consumption of these two products. Taxes are often recommended as a tool to reduce alcohol and cigarette consumption. If cigarettes and alcohol are complements, taxing one will reduce the consumption of both and thus achieve a double public health dividend. However, if they are substitutes, taxing one will induce consumers to increase consumption of the other, offsetting the public health benefits of the tax. Our results indicate that the demands for both cigarettes and alcohol are very sensitive to the price of alcohol, but not to the price of cigarettes or to income. This suggests that taxes on alcohol can have a double dividend. On the other hand, an increase in cigarette taxes may not be effective in curbing cigarette or alcohol consumption in rural China

Frequency and Risk Indicators of Tooth Decay among Pregnant Women in France: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

INTRODUCTION: Little is known on the prevalence of tooth decay among pregnant women. Better knowledge of tooth decay risk indicators during pregnancy could help to develop follow-up protocols for women at risk, along with better prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to assess the frequency of tooth decay and the number of decayed teeth per woman in a large sample of pregnant women in France, and to study associated risk indicators. METHODS: A secondary cross-sectional analysis of data from a French multicentre case-control study was performed. The sample was composed of 1094 at-term women of six maternity units. A dental examination was carried out within 2 to 4 days post-partum. Socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics were obtained through a standardised interview with the women. Medical characteristics were obtained from the women's medical records. Risk indicators associated with tooth decay were identified using a negative binomial hurdle model. RESULTS: 51.6% of the women had tooth decay. The mean number of decayed teeth among women having at least one was 3.1 (s.d. = 2.8). Having tooth decay was statistically associated with lower age (aOR = 1.58, 95%CI [1.03,2.45]), lower educational level (aOR = 1.53, 95%CI [1.06,2.23]) and dental plaque (aOR = 1.75, 95%CI [1.27,2.41]). The number of decayed teeth was associated with the same risk indicators and with non-French nationality and inadequate prenatal care. DISCUSSION: The frequency of tooth decay and the number of decayed teeth among pregnant women were high. Oral health promotion programmes must continue to inform women and care providers about the importance of dental care before, during and after pregnancy. Future research should also assess the effectiveness of public policies related to oral health in target populations of pregnant women facing challenging social or economic situations

Benefits of ICU admission in critically ill patients: Whether instrumental variable methods or propensity scores should be used

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The assessment of the causal effect of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission generally involves usual observational designs and thus requires controlling for confounding variables. Instrumental variable analysis is an econometric technique that allows causal inferences of the effectiveness of some treatments during situations to be made when a randomized trial has not been or cannot be conducted. This technique relies on the existence of one variable or "instrument" that is supposed to achieve similar observations with a different treatment for "arbitrary" reasons, thus inducing substantial variation in the treatment decision with no direct effect on the outcome. The objective of the study was to assess the benefit in terms of hospital mortality of ICU admission in a cohort of patients proposed for ICU admission (ELDICUS cohort).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using this cohort of 8,201 patients triaged for ICU (including 6,752 (82.3%) patients admitted), the benefit of ICU admission was evaluated using 3 different approaches: instrumental variables, standard regression and propensity score matched analyses. We further evaluated the results obtained using different instrumental variable methods that have been proposed for dichotomous outcomes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The physician's main specialization was found to be the best instrument. All instrumental variable models adequately reduced baseline imbalances, but failed to show a significant effect of ICU admission on hospital mortality, with confidence intervals far higher than those obtained in standard or propensity-based analyses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Instrumental variable methods offer an appealing alternative to handle the selection bias related to nonrandomized designs, especially when the presence of significant unmeasured confounding is suspected. Applied to the ELDICUS database, this analysis failed to show any significant beneficial effect of ICU admission on hospital mortality. This result could be due to the lack of statistical power of these methods.</p