Factors affecting diagnostic and prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature of risk of tuberculosis in HIV-uninfected South African adults

Background Host blood transcriptomic signatures, such as RISK11, have potential as tests for diagnosing and predicting tuberculosis. This thesis aimed to review the literature, evaluate host and non-host factors associated with variability of the RISK11 signature and impact on discriminatory performance and evaluate RISK11 performance in combination with tests of Mycobacterium tuberculosis sensitization. Methods A systematic review of discriminatory performance of transcriptomic signatures for tuberculosis was conducted. RISK11, QuantiFERON-TB Gold-Plus and host factors were analysed in a prospective cohort, in which a cross-sectional study of upper respiratory organisms was nested. Effects on RISK11 were quantified using multivariable generalised regression. Discriminatory performance of RISK11, and RISK11/QuantiFERON combinations, were quantified by area under the curve and/or sensitivity and specificity. Results In the literature, one signature (90% sensitivity; 74% specificity) met the minimal criteria for a triage test; one signature (86% sensitivity; 84% specificity) met the minimal criteria for a predictive test. In the prospective cohort, RISK11 scores were higher among individuals with prevalent tuberculosis (+18.90%), night sweats (+14.65%) and incident tuberculosis (+7.29%). Cough was associated with 72.55% higher RISK11 score in prevalent tuberculosis cases. Stratification by cough improved diagnostic performance from area under curve of 0.74 overall, to 0.97 in cough-positive participants. Adjustment for host factors affecting controls did not change RISK11 discriminatory performance. In the cross-sectional study, RISK11 scores were higher by +16.7%, +67.8% and +13.5% in participants with coronavirus, influenza and rhinovirus, respectively, such that RISK11 could not differentiate prevalent tuberculosis from upper respiratory viruses. Compared to RISK11, the Either-Positive test combination decreased diagnostic negative likelihood ratio from 0.7 to 0.3, and prognostic negative likelihood ratio from 0.9 to 0.3, but did not improve upon QuantiFERON alone. Compared to QuantiFERON, the Both-Positive test combination increased diagnostic positive likelihood ratio from 1.3 to 4.7, and prognostic positive likelihood ratio from 1.4 to 2.8, but did not improve upon RISK11 alone. Conclusion RISK11 holds promise as a triage test for tuberculosis. Further optimisation, or development of new signatures is needed to improve discrimination of subclinical tuberculosis, without cough, and to mitigate the impact of viral co-infection. RISK11/QuantiFERON combination testing is not recommended

Systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic host blood transcriptomic signatures of tuberculosis disease in people living with HIV [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Background HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) has high mortality; however, current triage and prognostic tools offer poor sensitivity and specificity, respectively. We conducted a systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic host-blood transcriptomic signatures of TB in people living with HIV (PLHIV). Methods We systematically searched online databases for studies published in English between 1990-2020. Eligible studies included PLHIV of any age in test or validation cohorts, and used microbiological or composite reference standards for TB diagnosis. Inclusion was not restricted by setting or participant age. Study selection, quality appraisal using the QUADAS-2 tool, and data extraction were conducted independently by two reviewers. Thereafter, narrative synthesis of included studies, and comparison of signatures performance, was performed. Results We screened 1,580 records and included 12 studies evaluating 31 host-blood transcriptomic signatures in 10 test or validation cohorts of PLHIV that differentiated individuals with TB from those with HIV alone, latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, or other diseases (OD). Two (2/10; 20%) cohorts were prospective (29 TB cases; 51 OD) and 8 (80%) case-control (353 TB cases; 606 controls) design. All cohorts (10/10) were recruited in Sub-Saharan Africa and 9/10 (90%) had a high risk of bias. Ten signatures (10/31; 32%) met minimum WHO Target Product Profile (TPP) criteria for TB triage tests. Only one study (1/12; 8%) evaluated prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature for progression to TB in PLHIV, which did not meet the minimum WHO prognostic TPP. Conclusions Generalisability of reported findings is limited by few studies enrolling PLHIV, limited geographical diversity, and predominantly case-control design, which also introduces spectrum bias. New prospective cohort studies are needed that include PLHIV and are conducted in diverse settings. Further research exploring the effect of HIV clinical, virological, and immunological factors on diagnostic performance is necessary for development and implementation of TB transcriptomic signatures in PLHIV

Systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic host blood transcriptomic signatures of tuberculosis disease in people living with HIV [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

Background HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) has high mortality; however, current triage and prognostic tools offer poor sensitivity and specificity, respectively. We conducted a systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic host-blood transcriptomic signatures of TB in people living with HIV (PLHIV). Methods We systematically searched online databases for studies published in English between 1990-2020. Eligible studies included PLHIV of any age in test or validation cohorts, and used microbiological or composite reference standards for TB diagnosis. Inclusion was not restricted by setting or participant age. Study selection, quality appraisal using the QUADAS-2 tool, and data extraction were conducted independently by two reviewers. Thereafter, narrative synthesis of included studies, and comparison of signatures performance, was performed. Results We screened 1,580 records and included 12 studies evaluating 31 host-blood transcriptomic signatures in 10 test or validation cohorts of PLHIV that differentiated individuals with TB from those with HIV alone, latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, or other diseases (OD). Two (2/10; 20%) cohorts were prospective (29 TB cases; 51 OD) and 8 (80%) case-control (353 TB cases; 606 controls) design. All cohorts (10/10) were recruited in Sub-Saharan Africa and 9/10 (90%) had a high risk of bias. Ten signatures (10/31; 32%) met minimum WHO Target Product Profile (TPP) criteria for TB triage tests. Only one study (1/12; 8%) evaluated prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature for progression to TB in PLHIV, which did not meet the minimum WHO prognostic TPP. Conclusions Generalisability of reported findings is limited by few studies enrolling PLHIV, limited geographical diversity, and predominantly case-control design, which also introduces spectrum bias. New prospective cohort studies are needed that include PLHIV and are conducted in diverse settings. Further research exploring the effect of HIV clinical, virological, and immunological factors on diagnostic performance is necessary for development and implementation of TB transcriptomic signatures in PLHIV

TB incidence in an adolescent cohort in South Africa

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem globally. Little is known about TB incidence in adolescents who are a proposed target group for new TB vaccines. We conducted a study to determine the TB incidence rates and risk factors for TB disease in a cohort of school-going adolescents in a high TB burden area in South Africa. METHODS: We recruited adolescents aged 12 to 18 years from high schools in Worcester, South Africa. Demographic and clinical information was collected, a tuberculin skin test (TST) performed and blood drawn for a QuantiFERON TB Gold assay at baseline. Screening for TB cases occurred at follow up visits and by surveillance of registers at public sector TB clinics over a period of up to 3.8 years after enrolment. RESULTS: A total of 6,363 adolescents were enrolled (58% of the school population targeted). During follow up, 67 cases of bacteriologically confirmed TB were detected giving an overall incidence rate of 0.45 per 100 person years (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.72). Black or mixed race, maternal education of primary school or less or unknown, a positive baseline QuantiFERON assay and a positive baseline TST were significant predictors of TB disease on adjusted analysis. CONCLUSION: The adolescent TB incidence found in a high burden setting will help TB vaccine developers plan clinical trials in this population. Latent TB infection and low socio-economic status were predictors of TB disease

Evaluation of Xpert® MTB/RIF assay in induced sputum and gastric lavage samples from young children with suspected tuberculosis from the MVA85A TB vaccine trial

Objective Diagnosis of childhood tuberculosis is limited by the paucibacillary respiratory samples obtained from young children with pulmonary disease. We aimed to compare accuracy of the Xpert ® MTB/RIF assay, an automated nucleic acid amplification test, between induced sputum and gastric lavage samples from young children in a tuberculosis endemic setting. METHODS: We analyzed standardized diagnostic data from HIV negative children younger than four years of age who were investigated for tuberculosis disease near Cape Town, South Africa [2009-2012]. Two paired, consecutive induced sputa and early morning gastric lavage samples were obtained from children with suspected tuberculosis. Samples underwent Mycobacterial Growth Indicator Tube [MGIT] culture and Xpert MTB/RIF assay. We compared diagnostic yield across samples using the two-sample test of proportions and McNemar's χ 2 test; and Wilson's score method to calculate sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: 1,020 children were evaluated for tuberculosis during 1,214 admission episodes. Not all children had 4 samples collected. 57 of 4,463[1.3%] and 26 of 4,606[0.6%] samples tested positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis on MGIT culture and Xpert MTB/RIF assay respectively. 27 of 2,198[1.2%] and 40 of 2,183[1.8%] samples tested positive [on either Xpert MTB/RIF assay or MGIT culture] on induced sputum and gastric lavage samples, respectively. 19/1,028[1.8%] and 33/1,017[3.2%] admission episodes yielded a positive MGIT culture or Xpert MTB/RIF assay from induced sputum and gastric lavage, respectively. Sensitivity of Xpert MTB/RIF assay was 8/30[26.7%; 95% CI: 14.2-44.4] for two induced sputum samples and 7/31[22.6%; 11.4-39.8] [p = 0.711] for two gastric lavage samples. Corresponding specificity was 893/893[100%;99.6-100] and 885/890[99.4%;98.7-99.8] respectively [p = 0.025]. CONCLUSION: Sensitivity of Xpert MTB/RIF assay was low, compared to MGIT culture, but diagnostic performance of Xpert MTB/RIF did not differ sufficiently between induced sputum and gastric lavage to justify selection of one sampling method over the other, in young children with suspected pulmonary TB. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0095392

Tuberculosis alters immune-metabolic pathways resulting in perturbed IL-1 responses

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem and we lack a comprehensive understanding of how Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) infection impacts host immune responses. We compared the induced immune response to TB antigen, BCG and IL-1β stimulation between latently M. tb infected individuals (LTBI) and active TB patients. This revealed distinct responses between TB/LTBI at transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic levels. At baseline, we identified a novel immune-metabolic association between pregnane steroids, the PPARγ pathway and elevated plasma IL-1ra in TB. We observed dysregulated IL-1 responses after BCG stimulation in TB patients, with elevated IL-1ra responses being explained by upstream TNF differences. Additionally, distinct secretion of IL-1α/IL-1β in LTBI/TB after BCG stimulation was associated with downstream differences in granzyme mediated cleavage. Finally, IL-1β driven signalling was dramatically perturbed in TB disease but was completely restored after successful treatment. This study improves our knowledge of how immune responses are altered during TB disease, and may support the design of improved preventive and therapeutic tools, including host-directed strategies

Live-attenuated Mycobacterium tuberculosis vaccine MTBVAC versus BCG in adults and neonates: a randomised controlled, double-blind dose-escalation trial

Background: Infants are a key target population for new tuberculosis vaccines. We assessed the safety and immunogenicity of the live-attenuated Mycobacterium tuberculosis vaccine candidate MTBVAC in adults and infants in a region where transmission of tuberculosis is very high. Methods: We did a randomised, double-blind, BCG-controlled, dose-escalation trial at the South African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative site near Cape Town, South Africa. Healthy adult community volunteers who were aged 18–50 years, had received BCG vaccination as infants, were HIV negative, had negative interferon-¿ release assay (IGRA) results, and had no personal history of tuberculosis or current household contact with someone with tuberculosis were enrolled in a safety cohort. Infants born to HIV-negative women with no personal history of tuberculosis or current household contact with a person with tuberculosis and who were 96 h old or younger, generally healthy, and had not yet received routine BCG vaccination were enrolled in a separate infant cohort. Eligible adults were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either BCG Vaccine SSI (5 × 105 colony forming units [CFU] of Danish strain 1331 in 0·1 mL diluent) or MTBVAC (5 × 105 CFU in 0·1 mL) intradermally in the deltoid region of the arm. After favourable review of 28-day reactogenicity and safety data in the adult cohort, infants were randomly assigned (1:3) to receive either BCG Vaccine SSI (2·5 × 105 CFU in 0·05 mL diluent) or MTBVAC in three sequential cohorts of increasing MTBVAC dose (2·5 × 103 CFU, 2·5 × 104 CFU, and 2·5 × 105 CFU in 0·05 mL) intradermally in the deltoid region of the arm. QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube IGRA was done on days 180 and 360. For both randomisations, a pre-prepared block randomisation schedule was used. Participants (and their parents or guardians in the case of infant participants), investigators, and other clinical and laboratory staff were masked to intervention allocation. The primary outcomes, which were all measured in the infant cohort, were solicited and unsolicited local adverse events and serious adverse events until day 360; non-serious systemic adverse events until day 28 and vaccine-specific CD4 and CD8 T-cell responses on days 7, 28, 70, 180, and 360. Secondary outcomes measured in adults were local injection-site and systemic reactions and haematology and biochemistry at study day 7 and 28. Safety analyses and immunogenicity analyses were done in all participants who received a dose of vaccine. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02729571. Findings: Between Sept 29, 2015, and Nov 16, 2015, 62 adults were screened and 18 were enrolled and randomly assigned, nine each to the BCG and MTBVAC groups. Between Feb 12, 2016, and Sept 21, 2016, 36 infants were randomly assigned—eight to the BCG group, nine to the 2·5 × 103 CFU MTBVAC group, nine to the 2·5 × 104 CFU group, and ten to the 2·5 × 105 CFU group. Mild injection-site reactions occurred only in infants in the BCG and the 2·5 × 105 CFU MTBVAC group, with no evidence of local or regional injection-site complications. Systemic adverse events were evenly distributed across BCG and MTBVAC dose groups, and were mostly mild in severity. Eight serious adverse events were reported in seven vaccine recipients (one adult MTBVAC recipient, one infant BCG recipient, one infant in the 2·5 × 103 CFU MTBVAC group, two in the 2·5 × 104 CFU MTBVAC group, and two in the 2·5 × 105 CFU MTBVAC group), including one infant in the 2·5 × 103 CFU MTBVAC group treated for unconfirmed tuberculosis and one in the 2·5 × 105 CFU MTBVAC group treated for unlikely tuberculosis. One infant died as a result of possible viral pneumonia. Vaccination with all MTBVAC doses induced durable antigen-specific T-helper-1 cytokine-expressing CD4 cell responses in infants that peaked 70 days after vaccination and were detectable 360 days after vaccination. For the highest MTBVAC dose (ie, 2·5 × 105 CFU), these responses exceeded responses induced by an equivalent dose of the BCG vaccine up to 360 days after vaccination. Dose-related IGRA conversion was noted in three (38%) of eight infants in the 2·5 × 103 CFU MTBVAC group, six (75%) of eight in the 2·5 × 104 CFU MTBVAC group, and seven (78%) of nine in the 2·5 × 105 CFU MTBVAC group at day 180, compared with none of seven infants in the BCG group. By day 360, IGRA reversion had occurred in all three infants (100%) in the 2·5 × 103 CFU MTBVAC group, four (67%) of the six in the 2·5 × 104 CFU MTBVAC group, and three (43%) of the seven in the 2·5 × 105 CFU MTBVAC group. Interpretation: MTBVAC had acceptable reactogenicity, and induced a durable CD4 cell response in infants. The evidence of immunogenicity supports progression of MTBVAC into larger safety and efficacy trials, but also confounds interpretation of tests for M tuberculosis infection, highlighting the need for stringent endpoint definition. Funding: Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, TuBerculosis Vaccine Initiative, UK Department for International Development, and Biofabri

Biomarker-guided tuberculosis preventive therapy (CORTIS): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Targeted preventive therapy for individuals at highest risk of incident tuberculosis might impact the epidemic by interrupting transmission. We tested performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (RISK11) and efficacy of signature-guided preventive therapy in parallel, using a hybrid three-group study design. METHODS: Adult volunteers aged 18-59 years were recruited at five geographically distinct communities in South Africa. Whole blood was sampled for RISK11 by quantitative RT-PCR assay from eligible volunteers without HIV, recent previous tuberculosis (ie, <3 years before screening), or comorbidities at screening. RISK11-positive participants were block randomised (1:2; block size 15) to once-weekly, directly-observed, open-label isoniazid and rifapentine for 12 weeks (ie, RISK11 positive and 3HP positive), or no treatment (ie, RISK11 positive and 3HP negative). A subset of eligible RISK11-negative volunteers were randomly assigned to no treatment (ie, RISK11 negative and 3HP negative). Diagnostic discrimination of prevalent tuberculosis was tested in all participants at baseline. Thereafter, prognostic discrimination of incident tuberculosis was tested in the untreated RISK11-positive versus RISK11-negative groups, and treatment efficacy in the 3HP-treated versus untreated RISK11-positive groups, during active surveillance through 15 months. The primary endpoint was microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. The primary outcome measures were risk ratio [RR] for tuberculosis of RISK11-positive to RISK11-negative participants, and treatment efficacy. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02735590. FINDINGS: 20 207 volunteers were screened, and 2923 participants were enrolled, including RISK11-positive participants randomly assigned to 3HP (n=375) or no 3HP (n=764), and 1784 RISK11-negative participants. Cumulative probability of prevalent or incident tuberculosis disease was 0·066 (95% CI 0·049 to 0·084) in RISK11-positive (3HP negative) participants and 0·018 (0·011 to 0·025) in RISK11-negative participants (RR 3·69, 95% CI 2·25-6·05) over 15 months. Tuberculosis prevalence was 47 (4·1%) of 1139 versus 14 (0·78%) of 1984 in RISK11-positive compared with RISK11-negative participants, respectively (diagnostic RR 5·13, 95% CI 2·93 to 9·43). Tuberculosis incidence over 15 months was 2·09 (95% CI 0·97 to 3·19) vs 0·80 (0·30 to 1·30) per 100 person years in RISK11-positive (3HP-negative) participants compared with RISK11-negative participants (cumulative incidence ratio 2·6, 95% CI 1·2 to 5·9). Serious adverse events related to 3HP included one hospitalisation for seizures (unintentional isoniazid overdose) and one death of unknown cause (possibly temporally related). Tuberculosis incidence over 15 months was 1·94 (95% CI 0·35 to 3·50) versus 2·09 (95% CI 0·97 to 3·19) per 100 person-years in 3HP-treated RISK11-positive participants compared with untreated RISK11-positive participants (efficacy 7·0%, 95% CI -145 to 65). INTERPRETATION: The RISK11 signature discriminated between individuals with prevalent tuberculosis, or progression to incident tuberculosis, and individuals who remained healthy, but provision of 3HP to signature-positive individuals after exclusion of baseline disease did not reduce progression to tuberculosis over 15 months. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council

Validation of a host blood transcriptomic biomarker for pulmonary tuberculosis in people living with HIV: a prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: A rapid, blood-based triage test that allows targeted investigation for tuberculosis at the point of care could shorten the time to tuberculosis treatment and reduce mortality. We aimed to test the performance of a host blood transcriptomic signature (RISK11) in diagnosing tuberculosis and predicting progression to active pulmonary disease (prognosis) in people with HIV in a community setting. METHODS: In this prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study, adults (aged 18-59 years) with HIV were recruited from five communities in South Africa. Individuals with a history of tuberculosis or household exposure to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis within the past 3 years, comorbid risk factors for tuberculosis, or any condition that would interfere with the study were excluded. RISK11 status was assessed at baseline by real-time PCR; participants and study staff were masked to the result. Participants underwent active surveillance for microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis by providing spontaneously expectorated sputum samples at baseline, if symptomatic during 15 months of follow-up, and at 15 months (the end of the study). The coprimary outcomes were the prevalence and cumulative incidence of tuberculosis disease confirmed by a positive Xpert MTB/RIF, Xpert Ultra, or Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube culture, or a combination of such, on at least two separate sputum samples collected within any 30-day period. FINDINGS: Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 963 participants were assessed for eligibility and 861 were enrolled. Among 820 participants with valid RISK11 results, eight (1%) had prevalent tuberculosis at baseline: seven (2·5%; 95% CI 1·2-5·0) of 285 RISK11-positive participants and one (0·2%; 0·0-1·1) of 535 RISK11-negative participants. The relative risk (RR) of prevalent tuberculosis was 13·1 times (95% CI 2·1-81·6) greater in RISK11-positive participants than in RISK11-negative participants. RISK11 had a diagnostic area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 88·2% (95% CI 77·6-96·7), and a sensitivity of 87·5% (58·3-100·0) and specificity of 65·8% (62·5-69·0) at a predefined score threshold (60%). Of those with RISK11 results, eight had primary endpoint incident tuberculosis during 15 months of follow-up. Tuberculosis incidence was 2·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·7-4·4) in the RISK11-positive group and 0·2 per 100 person-years (0·0-0·5) in the RISK11-negative group. The probability of primary endpoint incident tuberculosis was greater in the RISK11-positive group than in the RISK11-negative group (cumulative incidence ratio 16·0 [95% CI 2·0-129·5]). RISK11 had a prognostic AUC of 80·0% (95% CI 70·6-86·9), and a sensitivity of 88·6% (43·5-98·7) and a specificity of 68·9% (65·3-72·3) for incident tuberculosis at the 60% threshold. INTERPRETATION: RISK11 identified prevalent tuberculosis and predicted risk of progression to incident tuberculosis within 15 months in ambulant people living with HIV. RISK11's performance approached, but did not meet, WHO's target product profile benchmarks for screening and prognostic tests for tuberculosis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council