Laplace approximation of Lauricella functions F A and F D

The Lauricella functions, which are generalizations of the Gauss hypergeometric function 2 F 1, arise naturally in many areas of mathematics and statistics. So far as we are aware, there is little or nothing in the literature on how to calculate numerical approximations for these functions outside those cases in which a simple one-dimensional integral representation or a one-dimensional series representation is available. In this paper we present first-order and second-order Laplace approximations to the Lauricella functions F(n)A and F(n)D. Our extensive numerical results show that these approximations achieve surprisingly good accuracy in a wide variety of examples, including cases well outside the asymptotic framework within which the approximations were derived. Moreover, it turns out that the second-order Laplace approximations are usually more accurate than their first-order versions. The numerical results are complemented by theoretical investigations which suggest that the approximations have good relative error properties outside the asymptotic regimes within which they were derived, including in certain cases where the dimension n goes to infinity

Diversity of Zoanthids (Anthozoa: Hexacorallia) on Hawaiian Seamounts: Description of the Hawaiian Gold Coral and Additional Zoanthids

The Hawaiian gold coral has a history of exploitation from the deep slopes and seamounts of the Hawaiian Islands as one of the precious corals commercialised in the jewellery industry. Due to its peculiar characteristic of building a scleroproteic skeleton, this zoanthid has been referred as Gerardia sp. (a junior synonym of Savalia Nardo, 1844) but never formally described or examined by taxonomists despite its commercial interest. While collection of Hawaiian gold coral is now regulated, globally seamounts habitats are increasingly threatened by a variety of anthropogenic impacts. However, impact assessment studies and conservation measures cannot be taken without consistent knowledge of the biodiversity of such environments. Recently, multiple samples of octocoral-associated zoanthids were collected from the deep slopes of the islands and seamounts of the Hawaiian Archipelago. The molecular and morphological examination of these zoanthids revealed the presence of at least five different species including the gold coral. Among these only the gold coral appeared to create its own skeleton, two other species are simply using the octocoral as substrate, and the situation is not clear for the final two species. Phylogenetically, all these species appear related to zoanthids of the genus Savalia as well as to the octocoral-associated zoanthid Corallizoanthus tsukaharai, suggesting a common ancestor to all octocoral-associated zoanthids. The diversity of zoanthids described or observed during this study is comparable to levels of diversity found in shallow water tropical coral reefs. Such unexpected species diversity is symptomatic of the lack of biological exploration and taxonomic studies of the diversity of seamount hexacorals

A quantitative risk assessment of waterborne infectious disease in the inundation area of a tropical monsoon region

Flooding and inundation are annual events that occur during the rainy season in Cambodia, and inundation has a strong relationship with human health. This study simulated the coliform bacteria distribution using a hydraulic model and estimated the impact of inundation on public health using a dose–response model. The model parameters were calibrated using field survey data from Cambodia and obtained good agreement with the coliform group count distribution. The results suggest that the impact of inundation on human health is most noticeable in residential areas. The annual average risk of infection during medium-sized flood events is 0.21. The risk due to groundwater use ranges from 0.12 to 0.17 in inundation areas and reaches as high as 0.23 outside the inundation areas. The risk attributed to groundwater use is therefore higher than that for surface water use (0.02–0.06), except in densely populated areas at the city center. There is a high risk for infection with waterborne disease in residential areas, and the annual average risk during small flood events is 0.94. An assessment of possible countermeasures to reduce the risk shows that the control of inundation may bring more risk to public health in Cambodia. Shallower inundation water (<0.3 m) leads to a higher risk of infection, but if the depth is greater than 2 m, the risk is low in residential areas.The simulated results explain the spatial distributions of infection risk, which are vitally important for determining the highest priority places with relatively high risk and will be helpful for decision makers when considering the implementation of countermeasures

A Randomized Open-Label Trial of Artesunate- Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine with or without Primaquine for Elimination of Sub-Microscopic P. falciparum Parasitaemia and Gametocyte Carriage in Eastern Sudan

In areas of seasonal malaria transmission, treatment of asymptomatic carriers of malaria parasites, whose parasitaemia persists at low densities throughout the dry season, could be a useful strategy for malaria control. We carried out a randomized trial to compare two drug regimens for clearance of parasitaemia in order to identify the optimum regimen for use in mass drug administration in the dry season.A two-arm open-label randomized controlled trial was conducted during the dry season in an area of distinct seasonal malaria in two villages in Gedarif State in eastern Sudan. Participants were asymptomatic adults and children aged over 6 months, with low-density P. falciparum infection detected by PCR. Participants were randomized to receive artesunate/sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS+SP) combination for three days with or without a dose of primaquine (PQ) on the fourth day. Parasitaemia detected by PCR on days 3, 7 and 14 after the start of treatment and gametocytes detected by RT-PCR on days 7 and 14 were then recorded. 104 individuals who had low density parasitaemia at screening were randomized and treated during the dry season. On day 7, 8.3% were positive by PCR in the AS+SP+PQ group and 6.5% in the AS+SP group (risk difference 1.8%, 95%CI -10.3% to +13.8%). At enrolment, 12% (12/100) were carrying gametocytes. This was reduced to 6.4% and 4.4% by day 14 (Risk difference 1.9% (95%CI -9.3% to +13.2%) in AS+SP+PQ and AS+SP groups, respectively.Addition of primaquine to artemisinin combination treatment did not improve elimination of parasitaemia and prevention of gametocyte carriage in carriers with low-density parasitaemia in the dry season.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00330902

The Role of Climate Variability in the Spread of Malaria in Bangladeshi Highlands

Malaria is a major public health problem in Bangladesh, frequently occurring as epidemics since the 1990s. Many factors affect increases in malaria cases, including changes in land use, drug resistance, malaria control programs, socioeconomic issues, and climatic factors. No study has examined the relationship between malaria epidemics and climatic factors in Bangladesh. Here, we investigate the relationship between climatic parameters [rainfall, temperature, humidity, sea surface temperature (SST), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)], and malaria cases over the last 20 years in the malaria endemic district of Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT)

Effects of Irritant Chemicals on Aedes aegypti Resting Behavior: Is There a Simple Shift to Untreated “Safe Sites”?

Aedes aegypti, the primary vector mosquito of dengue virus, typically lives near or inside human dwellings, and feeds preferentially on humans. The control of this mosquito vector remains the most important dengue prevention method. The use of chemicals at levels toxic to mosquitoes is currently the only confirmed effective adult vector control strategy with interventions usually applied following epidemic onset. However, research indicates that sub-lethal chemical approaches to prevent human-vector contact at the house level exist: contact irritancy and spatial repellency. The optimum efficacy of an intervention based on contact irritant actions of chemicals will, however, require full knowledge of variables that will influence vector resting behavior and thereby chemical uptake from treated sources. Here we characterize the resting patterns of female Ae. aegypti on two material types at various dark:light surface area coverage ratios and contrast configurations under chemical-free and treated conditions using a laboratory behavioral assay. Change in resting behavior between baseline and treatment conditions was quantified to determine potential negative effects of untreated surfaces (“safe sites”) when irritant responses are elicited. We show that treatment of preferred resting sites with known irritant compounds do not stimulate mosquitoes to move to safe sites after making contact with treated surfaces

A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels

Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale

Incidence and Tracking of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a Major Produce Production Region in California

Fresh vegetables have become associated with outbreaks caused by Escherichia coli O157:H7 (EcO157). Between 1995–2006, 22 produce outbreaks were documented in the United States, with nearly half traced to lettuce or spinach grown in California. Outbreaks between 2002 and 2006 induced investigations of possible sources of pre-harvest contamination on implicated farms in the Salinas and San Juan valleys of California, and a survey of the Salinas watershed. EcO157 was isolated at least once from 15 of 22 different watershed sites over a 19 month period. The incidence of EcO157 increased significantly when heavy rain caused an increased flow rate in the rivers. Approximately 1000 EcO157 isolates obtained from cultures of>100 individual samples were typed using Multi-Locus Variable-number-tandem-repeat Analysis (MLVA) to assist in identifying potential fate and transport of EcO157 in this region. A subset of these environmental isolates were typed by Pulse Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE) in order to make comparisons with human clinical isolates associated with outbreak and sporadic illness. Recurrence of identical and closely related EcO157 strains from specific locations in the Salinas and San Juan valleys suggests that transport of the pathogen is usually restricted. In a preliminary study, EcO157 was detected in water at multiple locations in a low-flow creek only within 135 meters of a point source. However, possible transport up to 32 km was detected during periods of higher water flow associated with flooding. During the 2006 baby spinach outbreak investigation, transport was also detected where water was unlikely to be involved. These results indicate that contamination of the environment is a dynamic process involving multiple sources and methods of transport. Intensive studies of the sources, incidence, fate and transport of EcO157 near produce production are required to determine the mechanisms of pre-harvest contamination and potential risks for human illness