The effect of stock market wealth on private consumption in Zimbabwe

The study seeks to examine stock market wealth effects on private non-durable consumption for Zimbabwean households using quarterly data from 1994(1) to 2008(2). The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the long run relationship between stock market wealth and consumption. An autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) analysis is implemented to examine the relationship among the variables both in the short-run and the long run. The empirical findings suggest significant wealth effects for Zimbabwe, a developing country. This contradicts the commonly held view that LDCs should have insignificant wealth effect since the financial system is still underdeveloped. The dynamic short run error correction model also shows a speedy convergence to long run equilibrium

Determinants of maternal healthcare utilization in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe and other developing countries struggle to achieve millennium development goals originally set for 2015. To assist health policy making, there was an investigation of how demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors determine maternal healthcare services use in Zimbabwe. A logistic model for four different maternal healthcare services using data from the 2005/6 Zimbabwe Demographic Health Survey was estimated. Secondary education increases the odds of use of maternal health services by at least 2 times at 1 percent level of significance whilst access to information increases the odds by 1.52 at the 5 percent level of significance. Women in urban areas are more likely to give birth at healthcare facilities OR 3.49 compared to their rural counterparts at 1 percent significance level. Women from highest income households are more likely to give birth at health facilities than those from poorest households OR 6.44 at 1 percent level of significance whilst the pattern is consistent for other services as well. Other important determinants are age, education, wealth, polygamy and religious affiliation. Generally, policy makers have to appreciate that these factors affect different maternal health services differently. Consequently, strategies to improve the uptake of maternal healthcare like mass media and health workers, particularly for disadvantaged sections of the population like rural areas and the uneducated, should be targeted at specific components rather than planning umbrella strategies

The evolution of socioeconomic status-related inequalities in maternal health care utilization: evidence from Zimbabwe, 1994-2011

Background: Inequalities in maternal health care are pervasive in the developing world, a fact that has led to questions about the extent of these disparities across socioeconomic groups. Despite a growing literature on maternal health across Sub-Saharan African countries, relatively little is known about the evolution of these inequalities over time for specific countries. This study sought to quantify and explain the observed differences in prenatal care use and professional delivery assistance in Zimbabwe. Methods: The empirical analysis uses four rounds of the nationwide Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey administered in 1994, 1999, 2005/06 and 2010/11. Two binary indicators were used as measures of maternal health care utilization; (1) the receipt of four or more antenatal care visits and (2) receiving professional delivery assistance for the most recent pregnancy. We measure inequalities in maternal health care use using the Erreygers corrected concentration index. A decomposition analysis was conducted to determine the underlying drivers of the measured disparities. Results: The computed concentration indices for professional delivery assistance and prenatal care reveal a mostly pro-rich distribution of inequalities between 1994 and 2011. Particularly, the concentration index [95% confidence interval] for the receipt of prenatal care was 0.111 [0.056, 0.171] in 2005/06 and 0.094 [0.057, 0.138] in 2010/11. For professional delivery assistance, the concentration index stood at 0.286 [0.244, 0.329] in 2005/06 and 0.324 [0.283, 0.366] in 2010/11. The pro-rich inequality was also increasing in both rural and urban areas over time. The decomposition exercise revealed that wealth, education, religion and information access were the underlying drivers of the observed inequalities in maternal health care. Conclusions: In Zimbabwe, socioeconomic disparities in maternal health care use are mostly pro-rich and have widened over time regardless of the location of residence. Overall, we established that inequalities in wealth and education are amongst the top drivers of the observed disparities in maternal health care. These findings suggest that addressing inequalities in maternal health care utilization requires coordinated public policies targeting the more poor and vulnerable segments of the population in Zimbabwe

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Routine versus clinically driven laboratory monitoring of HIV antiretroviral therapy in Africa (DART): a randomised non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) is often managed without routine laboratory monitoring in Africa; however, the effect of this approach is unknown. This trial investigated whether routine toxicity and efficacy monitoring of HIV-infected patients receiving ART had an important long-term effect on clinical outcomes in Africa. METHODS: In this open, non-inferiority trial in three centres in Uganda and one in Zimbabwe, 3321 symptomatic, ART-naive, HIV-infected adults with CD4 counts less than 200 cells per microL starting ART were randomly assigned to laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM; n=1659) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM; n=1662) by a computer-generated list. Haematology, biochemistry, and CD4-cell counts were done every 12 weeks. In the LCM group, results were available to clinicians; in the CDM group, results (apart from CD4-cell count) could be requested if clinically indicated and grade 4 toxicities were available. Participants switched to second-line ART after new or recurrent WHO stage 4 events in both groups, or CD4 count less than 100 cells per microL (LCM only). Co-primary endpoints were new WHO stage 4 HIV events or death, and serious adverse events. Non-inferiority was defined as the upper 95% confidence limit for the hazard ratio (HR) for new WHO stage 4 events or death being no greater than 1.18. Analyses were by intention to treat. This study is registered, number ISRCTN13968779. FINDINGS: Two participants assigned to CDM and three to LCM were excluded from analyses. 5-year survival was 87% (95% CI 85-88) in the CDM group and 90% (88-91) in the LCM group, and 122 (7%) and 112 (7%) participants, respectively, were lost to follow-up over median 4.9 years' follow-up. 459 (28%) participants receiving CDM versus 356 (21%) LCM had a new WHO stage 4 event or died (6.94 [95% CI 6.33-7.60] vs 5.24 [4.72-5.81] per 100 person-years; absolute difference 1.70 per 100 person-years [0.87-2.54]; HR 1.31 [1.14-1.51]; p=0.0001). Differences in disease progression occurred from the third year on ART, whereas higher rates of switch to second-line treatment occurred in LCM from the second year. 283 (17%) participants receiving CDM versus 260 (16%) LCM had a new serious adverse event (HR 1.12 [0.94-1.32]; p=0.19), with anaemia the most common (76 vs 61 cases). INTERPRETATION: ART can be delivered safely without routine laboratory monitoring for toxic effects, but differences in disease progression suggest a role for monitoring of CD4-cell count from the second year of ART to guide the switch to second-line treatment. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the Rockefeller Foundation, GlaxoSmithKline, Gilead Sciences, Boehringer-Ingelheim, and Abbott Laboratories

The Impact of Different CD4 Cell-Count Monitoring and Switching Strategies on Mortality in HIV-Infected African Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy: An Application of Dynamic Marginal Structural Models

In Africa, antiretroviral therapy (ART) is delivered with limited laboratory monitoring, often none. In 2003-2004, investigators in the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa (DART) Trial randomized persons initiating ART in Uganda and Zimbabwe to either laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM). CD4 cell counts were measured every 12 weeks in both groups but were only returned to treating clinicians for management in the LCM group. Follow-up continued through 2008. In observational analyses, dynamic marginal structural models on pooled randomized groups were used to estimate survival under different monitoring-frequency and clinical/immunological switching strategies. Assumptions included no direct effect of randomized group on mortality or confounders and no unmeasured confounders which influenced treatment switch and mortality or treatment switch and time-dependent covariates. After 48 weeks of first-line ART, 2,946 individuals contributed 11,351 person-years of follow-up, 625 switches, and 179 deaths. The estimated survival probability after a further 240 weeks for post-48-week switch at the first CD4 cell count less than 100 cells/mm(3) or non-Candida World Health Organization stage 4 event (with CD4 count <250) was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94, 0.97) with 12-weekly CD4 testing, 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.97) with 24-weekly CD4 testing, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) with a single CD4 test at 48 weeks (baseline), and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.94) with no CD4 testing. Comparing randomized groups by 48-week CD4 count, the mortality risk associated with CDM versus LCM was greater in persons with CD4 counts of <100 (hazard ratio = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 4.3) than in those with CD4 counts of ≥100 (hazard ratio = 1.1, 95% CI: 0.8, 1.7; interaction P = 0.04). These findings support a benefit from identifying patients immunologically failing first-line ART at 48 weeks