Falling birth rates and world population decline: A quantitative discussion (1950-2040)

The UN data (1950-2010) and projections (both medium and low-fertility variants for 2015- 2040) show that fertility rates are already below replacement level in all continents except Africa. In this paper we develop a simple new approach for population projections based on a Improved Rate Equations (IRE) model. Population projections under the (1) Malthusian assumption, (2) an (IRE) model fitting and extrapolating from actual UN population data up to 2040, and (3) UN projections (low-fertility variant), are compared. The model fits quite well actual data and suggests a world population decline in the 21st Century. The economic, social and political consequences of this new and global circumstance would be far reachin

Conexiones entre empresas y oportunidad de clúster: El caso de las empresas biotecnológicas en la Comunidad de Madrid

Much of the Spanish biotechnology industry activity operates in the Community of Madrid (CM). Regional and local authorities are very interested in constituting a biotechnology cluster in the Community. All the necessary elements can be found in the region: as shown, there exists the opportunity for the emergence of a biotechnology cluster in CM. However, at the present time no biotechnology cluster can be said to exist as such in the region; there is only a cluster opportunity. In order to demonstrate this proposition, we provide an overview of the biotechnology industry, focusing on the fi rms that operate in Madrid and their connections between themselves and the other actors in the system. Any cluster strategy that aims to develop a biotechnology cluster in Madrid should consider the form of these connectionsBuena parte de la industria biotecnológica española opera en la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid (CAM). Las autoridades regionales y locales están muy interesadas en constituir un cluster biotecnológico en la comunidad. Todos los elementos necesarios para que pueda surgir dicho cluster están presentes en la región: como se muestra en este trabajo, existe la oportunidad para que emerja un cluster biotecnológico en la CAM. Sin embargo, no se puede afirmar con total seguridad que tal cluster exista por el momento en la región; tan solo hay una oportunidad de cluster. Para demostrar esta proposición, proporcionamos una panorámica de la industria biotecnológica centrándonos en las empresas que operan en Madrid y sus conexiones con otras empresas del sector y con otros actores del sistema de innovación. Cualquier estrategia que busque desarrollar un cluster biotecnológico en Madrid debería tener en cuenta la naturaleza de estas conexione

Entrepreneurial effort and economic growth

Entrepreneurs allocate resources among different activities that generates a profit; in particular, in this paper entrepreneurs consider at each instant of time both innovation and rent-seeking as alternative sources of profit. The consequences in terms of economic growth are obviously quite different: the higher the amount of innovations in the economy the higher the rate of economic growth and vice versa. What are the determinants of these different entrepreneurial behavior? Is there anything in the nature of entrepreneurs that essentially distinguishes between innovators and rent seekers? A main claim of this paper is that differences among entrepreneurs are not essential but of degree: all of them are in fact profit-seekers and the only difference is to be found in their attitude towards innovation as a source of profit. In this sense entrepreneurial effort is defined and modelled for each entrepreneur according to its propensity to innovate and the corresponding Entrepreneurial Problem (EP) is posed and solved both analytically and via simulation in terms of profit maximization. The individual decisions measured in units of innovation are then aggregated to calculate the innovation quantity for a given population based on the distribution of heterogeneous entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurship rate and the implications for economic growth are also modelled. Consequently, policy makers should focus on reducing the entry barriers and the costs of production in order to stimulate the entrepreneurial activity and maximize the innovation quantity

Dinámica empresarial y crecimiento económico

Tesis doctoral inédita. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Análisis Económico. Fecha de lectura: 2-3-200

Prospects of world population decline in the near future: a short note

An article in Science (4 November 1960) proposed Friday 13 November AD 2026 as the "Doomsday" of planet Earth, a doomsday produced by the "world population" going to infinity. In that paper, a rudimentary rate equation describing the evolution of the world population with time, was approximated in such a way that a quantitative calculation produced that particular date. In this note, we give a more realistic rate equation which respects general conservation principles and we compare previous results and the results of our calculation, with actual UN data for 1960-2010 and UN medium term projections. At present there is disagreement among experts as to what can be expected for the world population in the future. Some think that the population is still growing out control, some say it will be approximating a constant level by 2050, whilst others expect it to be clearly in decline somewhere between 2050 and the end of 21st century. Our model shows conclusively that if no drastic and unexpected changes take place soon, the world population will be decreasing at an accelerated rate after 2050. Our rate equation approach is similar to that used in condensed matter physics and chemical physics to describe the evolution of a two level system under an external perturbation. The result is much more realistic than a purely exponential result as has been generally assumed in the last decades of the last centur

Economy and conflict: Present emergencies and lessons from the past

La Historia muestra procesos de convergencia y divergencia en los que los conflictos desempeñan un papel destacado. Si bien el análisis económico de los conflictos ha estado presente siempre en la literatura económica, no ha ocupado un lugar central ni orgánico en el corpus teórico principal. La urgencia y complejidad de los retos globales actuales exige tener en consideración enfoques multidisciplinares en el que se inserten el estudio de los riesgos sistémicos así como la capacidad de respuesta institucional a nivel internacional. Esto supone revisar y superar los planteamientos actuales y dar cabida al conflicto en el análisis. Este breve ensayo plantea y reivindica tales necesidadesHistory shows processes of convergence and divergence within which conflicts play a prominent role. While the economic analysis of conflicts has always been present in the economic literature, it has not occupied a central or. The urgency and complexity of the current global challenges requires taking multidisciplinary approaches, in which the study of systemic risks is included, as well as institutional responsiveness at international level. This involves reviewing and overcoming current approaches and accommodate conflict within the analysis. This short essay raises and revindicates such needsEste trabajo ha sido posible gracias a la financiación de lMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación (ref. HAR 2012-35965/His) y de Grupos consolidados del Gobierno Vasco (Ref. IT807-13

The allocation of entrepreneurial effort and its implications on economic growth

The problem to allocate effort to innovation activities is defined and modelled for any single entrepreneur according to its propensity to innovate, which combines pure innovation and rent-seeking strategies. The allocation problem is solved both analytically and via simulation. The individual decisions measured in units of innovation are then aggregated to calculate the innovation quantity for a given population based on the distribution of heterogeneous entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurship rate and the implications for economic growth are also quantified. Consequently, policy makers should focus on reducing the entry barriers and the costs of production in order to stimulate the entrepreneurial activity and maximize the innovation quantity. They should also foster the attitude and propensity towards innovatio

Firms' connections and cluster opportunity: The case of biotechnology in the Community of Madrid

Much of the Spanish biotechnology industry activity operates in the Community of Madrid (CM). Regional and local authorities are very interested in constituting a biotechnology cluster in the Community. All the necessary elements can be found in the region: as shown, there exists the opportunity for the emergence of a biotechnology cluster in CM. However, at the present time no biotechnology cluster can be said to exist as such in the region; there is only a cluster opportunity. In order to demonstrate this proposition, we provide an overview of the biotechnology industry, focusing on the fi rms that operate in Madrid and their connections between themselves and the other actors in the system. Any cluster strategy that aims to develop a biotechnology cluster in Madrid should consider the form of these connections.Buena parte de la industria biotecnológica española opera en la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid (CAM). Las autoridades regionales y locales están muy interesadas en constituir un cluster biotecnológico en la comunidad. Todos los elementos necesarios para que pueda surgir dicho cluster están presentes en la región: como se muestra en este trabajo, existe la oportunidad para que emerja un cluster biotecnológico en la CAM. Sin embargo, no se puede afi rmar con total seguridad que tal cluster exista por el momento en la región; tan solo hay una oportunidad de cluster. Para demostrar esta proposición, proporcionamos una panorámica de la industria biotecnológica centrándonos en las empresas que operan en Madrid y sus conexiones con otras empresas del sector y con otros actores del sistema de innovación. Cualquier estrategia que busque desarrollar un cluster biotecnológico en Madrid debería tener en cuenta la naturaleza de estas conexiones

Agents intentionality, capabilities and the performance of systems of innovation

We are interested on why and how an economic system evolves and, in particular, on the causes of the differences across systems of innovation (SI). SI’s performance differs substantially because there are specific causes at work, apart from the differences in the underlying technologies, institutions, etc. In particular, we refer to the intentionality of the agents interacting within a system for innovation to find out the relationship between agents’ goals, SI’s performance and its policy implications. The underlying thesis in this paper is that agent intentionality is a necessary condition for a substantive explanation of the dynamism of any socio-economic system. The paper departs from an abstract definition of a system as a set of constitutive elements and the connections among them serving a common purpose. And explores how intentionality shapes the structure, evolution and performance of an SI. In this context an evolutionary efficiency criterion is proposed