75 research outputs found
Falling birth rates and world population decline: A quantitative discussion (1950-2040)
The UN data (1950-2010) and projections (both medium and low-fertility variants for 2015-
2040) show that fertility rates are already below replacement level in all continents except Africa. In this
paper we develop a simple new approach for population projections based on a Improved Rate Equations
(IRE) model. Population projections under the (1) Malthusian assumption, (2) an (IRE) model fitting and
extrapolating from actual UN population data up to 2040, and (3) UN projections (low-fertility variant),
are compared. The model fits quite well actual data and suggests a world population decline in the 21st
Century. The economic, social and political consequences of this new and global circumstance would be
far reachin
The coevolution of technology, markets, and culture: The challenging case of AI
Artificial intelligence (AI) is at the center of economic, social, political, and ethical debate. For the first time in human history, since the appearance of writing, a new type of “intelligence” is impacting the very nature of social relationships. New technologies are not only changing the operating model of markets and value chains in an accelerated way but also in how information is generated and processed, how labor, social relations, and culture evolve, etc. In this paper, we pursue two main goals. First, to set up an analytical framework in which cognitive, technical, and cultural dynamics are intertwined with the processes of deployment of economic action. Secondly, we utilize this framework to explore some key features and challenges of AI and its impact on coevolutionary processes at the cognitive, market, and cultural levels. We devote special attention to the consequences that AI may have for the concept of (economic) rationality and the formation of action plans. We conclude that AI will massively enhance agents’ spaces of action by improving efficiency and exploring new possibilities. However, AI will not change the nature of human action and the structure of the evolution of the economic syste
Conexiones entre empresas y oportunidad de clúster: El caso de las empresas biotecnológicas en la Comunidad de Madrid
Much of the Spanish biotechnology industry activity operates in the Community of
Madrid (CM). Regional and local authorities are very interested in constituting a biotechnology
cluster in the Community. All the necessary elements can be found in the region: as shown,
there exists the opportunity for the emergence of a biotechnology cluster in CM. However, at
the present time no biotechnology cluster can be said to exist as such in the region; there is only
a cluster opportunity. In order to demonstrate this proposition, we provide an overview of the
biotechnology industry, focusing on the fi rms that operate in Madrid and their connections
between themselves and the other actors in the system. Any cluster strategy that aims to
develop a biotechnology cluster in Madrid should consider the form of these connectionsBuena parte de la industria biotecnológica española opera en la Comunidad Autónoma
de Madrid (CAM). Las autoridades regionales y locales están muy interesadas en
constituir un cluster biotecnológico en la comunidad. Todos los elementos necesarios para
que pueda surgir dicho cluster están presentes en la región: como se muestra en este trabajo, existe la oportunidad para que emerja un cluster biotecnológico en la CAM.
Sin embargo, no
se puede afirmar con total seguridad que tal cluster exista por el momento en la región; tan
solo hay una oportunidad de cluster. Para demostrar esta proposición, proporcionamos una
panorámica de la industria biotecnológica centrándonos en las empresas que operan en Madrid
y sus conexiones con otras empresas del sector y con otros actores del sistema de innovación.
Cualquier estrategia que busque desarrollar un cluster biotecnológico en Madrid debería tener
en cuenta la naturaleza de estas conexione
Entrepreneurial effort and economic growth
Entrepreneurs allocate resources among different activities that generates a profit; in
particular, in this paper entrepreneurs consider at each instant of time both innovation
and rent-seeking as alternative sources of profit. The consequences in terms of
economic growth are obviously quite different: the higher the amount of innovations
in the economy the higher the rate of economic growth and vice versa. What are the
determinants of these different entrepreneurial behavior? Is there anything in the
nature of entrepreneurs that essentially distinguishes between innovators and rent
seekers? A main claim of this paper is that differences among entrepreneurs are not
essential but of degree: all of them are in fact profit-seekers and the only difference is
to be found in their attitude towards innovation as a source of profit. In this sense
entrepreneurial effort is defined and modelled for each entrepreneur according to its
propensity to innovate and the corresponding Entrepreneurial Problem (EP) is posed
and solved both analytically and via simulation in terms of profit maximization. The
individual decisions measured in units of innovation are then aggregated to calculate
the innovation quantity for a given population based on the distribution of heterogeneous
entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurship rate and the implications for economic
growth are also modelled. Consequently, policy makers should focus on reducing
the entry barriers and the costs of production in order to stimulate the entrepreneurial
activity and maximize the innovation quantity
Dinámica empresarial y crecimiento económico
Tesis doctoral inédita. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Análisis Económico. Fecha de lectura: 2-3-200
Prospects of world population decline in the near future: a short note
An article in Science (4 November 1960) proposed Friday 13 November AD 2026 as the
"Doomsday" of planet Earth, a doomsday produced by the "world population" going to infinity. In
that paper, a rudimentary rate equation describing the evolution of the world population with time,
was approximated in such a way that a quantitative calculation produced that particular date. In this
note, we give a more realistic rate equation which respects general conservation principles and we
compare previous results and the results of our calculation, with actual UN data for 1960-2010 and
UN medium term projections. At present there is disagreement among experts as to what can be
expected for the world population in the future. Some think that the population is still growing out
control, some say it will be approximating a constant level by 2050, whilst others expect it to be
clearly in decline somewhere between 2050 and the end of 21st century. Our model shows
conclusively that if no drastic and unexpected changes take place soon, the world population will be
decreasing at an accelerated rate after 2050. Our rate equation approach is similar to that used in
condensed matter physics and chemical physics to describe the evolution of a two level system under
an external perturbation. The result is much more realistic than a purely exponential result as has been
generally assumed in the last decades of the last centur
Economy and conflict: Present emergencies and lessons from the past
La Historia muestra procesos de convergencia y divergencia en los que los conflictos
desempeñan un papel destacado. Si bien el análisis económico de los conflictos ha
estado presente siempre en la literatura económica, no ha ocupado un lugar central ni
orgánico en el corpus teórico principal. La urgencia y complejidad de los retos globales actuales exige
tener en consideración enfoques multidisciplinares en el que se inserten el estudio de los
riesgos sistémicos así como la capacidad de respuesta institucional a nivel internacional.
Esto supone revisar y superar los planteamientos actuales y dar cabida al conflicto en el análisis. Este breve ensayo plantea y reivindica tales necesidadesHistory shows processes of convergence and divergence within which conflicts play
a prominent role. While the economic analysis of conflicts has always been present in the
economic literature, it has not occupied a central or. The urgency and complexity of the
current global challenges requires taking multidisciplinary approaches, in which the study
of systemic risks is included, as well as institutional responsiveness at international level.
This involves reviewing and overcoming current approaches and accommodate conflict within the analysis. This short essay raises and revindicates such needsEste trabajo ha sido posible gracias a la financiación de lMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación (ref. HAR 2012-35965/His) y de Grupos consolidados del Gobierno Vasco (Ref. IT807-13
The allocation of entrepreneurial effort and its implications on economic growth
The problem to allocate effort to innovation activities is defined and modelled
for any single entrepreneur according to its propensity to innovate, which combines pure
innovation and rent-seeking strategies. The allocation problem is solved both analytically
and via simulation. The individual decisions measured in units of innovation are then
aggregated to calculate the innovation quantity for a given population based on the
distribution of heterogeneous entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurship rate and the
implications for economic growth are also quantified. Consequently, policy makers
should focus on reducing the entry barriers and the costs of production in order to
stimulate the entrepreneurial activity and maximize the innovation quantity. They should
also foster the attitude and propensity towards innovatio
Firms' connections and cluster opportunity: The case of biotechnology in the Community of Madrid
Much of the Spanish biotechnology industry activity operates in the Community of
Madrid (CM). Regional and local authorities are very interested in constituting a biotechnology
cluster in the Community. All the necessary elements can be found in the region: as shown,
there exists the opportunity for the emergence of a biotechnology cluster in CM. However, at
the present time no biotechnology cluster can be said to exist as such in the region; there is only
a cluster opportunity. In order to demonstrate this proposition, we provide an overview of the
biotechnology industry, focusing on the fi rms that operate in Madrid and their connections
between themselves and the other actors in the system. Any cluster strategy that aims to
develop a biotechnology cluster in Madrid should consider the form of these connections.Buena parte de la industria biotecnológica española opera en la Comunidad
Autónoma de Madrid (CAM). Las autoridades regionales y locales están muy interesadas en
constituir un cluster biotecnológico en la comunidad. Todos los elementos necesarios para que
pueda surgir dicho cluster están presentes en la región: como se muestra en este trabajo,
existe la oportunidad para que emerja un cluster biotecnológico en la CAM. Sin embargo, no
se puede afi rmar con total seguridad que tal cluster exista por el momento en la región; tan
solo hay una oportunidad de cluster. Para demostrar esta proposición, proporcionamos una
panorámica de la industria biotecnológica centrándonos en las empresas que operan en Madrid
y sus conexiones con otras empresas del sector y con otros actores del sistema de innovación.
Cualquier estrategia que busque desarrollar un cluster biotecnológico en Madrid debería tener
en cuenta la naturaleza de estas conexiones
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