A Multi-model Analysis of Post-2020 Mitigation Efforts of Five Major Economies

This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan and USA) in the context of the 2 degrees C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2 degrees C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on enduse efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non-CO2 emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors

A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems

Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models

A multidisciplinary systematic review of the use of diagrams as a means of collecting data from research subjects: application, benefits and recommendations

BACKGROUND: In research, diagrams are most commonly used in the analysis of data and visual presentation of results. However there has been a substantial growth in the use of diagrams in earlier stages of the research process to collect data. Despite this growth, guidance on this technique is often isolated within disciplines. METHODS: A multidisciplinary systematic review was performed, which included 13 traditional healthcare and non-health-focused indexes, non-indexed searches and contacting experts in the field. English-language articles that used diagrams as a data collection tool and reflected on the process were included in the review, with no restriction on publication date. RESULTS: The search identified 2690 documents, of which 80 were included in the final analysis. The choice to use diagrams for data collection is often determined by requirements of the research topic, such as the need to understand research subjects' knowledge or cognitive structure, to overcome cultural and linguistic differences, or to understand highly complex subject matter. How diagrams were used for data collection varied by the degrees of instruction for, and freedom in, diagram creation, the number of diagrams created or edited and the use of diagrams in conjunction with other data collection methods. Depending on how data collection is structured, a variety of options for qualitative and quantitative analysis are available to the researcher. The review identified a number of benefits to using diagrams in data collection, including the ease with which the method can be adapted to complement other data collection methods and its ability to focus discussion. However it is clear that the benefits and challenges of diagramming depend on the nature of its application and the type of diagrams used. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: The results of this multidisciplinary systematic review examine the application of diagrams in data collection and the methods for analyzing the unique datasets elicited. Three recommendations are presented. Firstly, the diagrammatic approach should be chosen based on the type of data needed. Secondly, appropriate instructions will depend on the approach chosen. And thirdly, the final results should present examples of original or recreated diagrams. This review also highlighted the need for a standardized terminology of the method and a supporting theoretical framework

Sustainable agricultural intensification: indicators and metrics for multi-scale modeling.

Agricultural production is expected to provide food security, respect the environment, sustain rural communities and cover an increasing demand for the bioeconomy. In order to simultaneously address these objectives, sustainable agricultural intensification is seen as a promising strategy that could allow satisfying growing demands for agricultural food and non-food products, while reducing environmental impacts and maximizing resource use efficiency. However, the quantification and ex ante evaluation of sustainable intensification options and their associated trade-offs with respect to the various sustainability dimensions remain a challenge.This study aims to address this challenge by presenting a framework for measuring sustainable intensification. First, we reviewed literature on sustainability criteria for agriculture, biomass and bioenergy production, and metrics and frameworks for measuring sustainable intensification. Second, we developed a framework for quantifying sustainable intensification via transparent, clear and relevant indicators that allow the analysis and weighing of trade-offs across sustainable intensification options and scales. Third, we contrasted the metrics of the developed framework to typical outputs of a number of biophysical and economic models of agricultural systems, across different scales including the field, farm, regional, EU and global levels, in order to evaluate typical modeling capabilities to quantify sustainable intensification.This talk will present the findings of this exercise, demonstrate the operationalization of the framework for the assessment of the dual production of food and non-food products, and propose an approach for further improving the presented sustainable intensification metrics via stakeholder involvement

Mapping public participation in the water framework directive: a case study of the Pinios River Basin, Greece

The EU Water Framework Directive requires the involvement and participation of stakeholders and the public for enhancing the sustainability of water resource management. The Directive is non prescriptive as to how public participation in water management should be operationalised in practice, and this creates a wider role for research that can inform this process. This study explores the issue of public participation, in the context of the Pinios River Basin in Greece, using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, a form of qualitative modeling directly related to stakeholders’ perceptions. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping has been used to elicit stakeholder and public perceptions on the current state and pressures on water resources, the acceptability of achieving full cost recovery for water services, and to explore the potential effects of different water management policy options on water resources of the area. The study offers a perspective on the potential contribution of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping in involving stakeholders and the public in water resource management. The main advantages of the method include the ease in capturing both local and expert knowledge, the ability to elicit and compare the perceptions of different stakeholder groups, and the ability to unify the respondents ’ viewpoints and understanding of a system without demanding their direct interaction

The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development

Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa's future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5% and 20% of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4% and 10% of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today

Impact assessment of policy changes on the arable sector using the FSSIM model : case study of the Zachodniopomorskie NUTS2 region

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