123 research outputs found
Spectral quantification of nonlinear behaviour of the nearshore seabed and correlations with potential forcings at Duck, N.C., U.S.A
Local bathymetric quasi-periodic patterns of oscillation are identified from
monthly profile surveys taken at two shore-perpendicular transects at the USACE
field research facility in Duck, North Carolina, USA, spanning 24.5 years and
covering the swash and surf zones. The chosen transects are the two furthest
(north and south) from the pier located at the study site. Research at Duck has
traditionally focused on one or more of these transects as the effects of the
pier are least at these locations. The patterns are identified using singular
spectrum analysis (SSA). Possible correlations with potential forcing
mechanisms are discussed by 1) doing an SSA with same parameter settings to
independently identify the quasi-periodic cycles embedded within three
potentially linked sequences: monthly wave heights (MWH), monthly mean water
levels (MWL) and the large scale atmospheric index known as the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) and 2) comparing the patterns within MWH, MWL and NAO to the
local bathymetric patterns. The results agree well with previous patterns
identified using wavelets and confirm the highly nonstationary behaviour of
beach levels at Duck; the discussion of potential correlations with
hydrodynamic and atmospheric phenomena is a new contribution. The study is then
extended to all measured bathymetric profiles, covering an area of 1100m
(alongshore) by 440m (cross-shore), to 1) analyse linear correlations between
the bathymetry and the potential forcings using multivariate empirical
orthogonal functions (MEOF) and linear correlation analysis and 2) identify
which collective quasi-periodic bathymetric patterns are correlated with those
within MWH, MWL or NAO, based on a (nonlinear) multichannel singular spectrum
analysis (MSSA). (...continued in submitted paper)Comment: 50 pages, 3 tables, 8 figure
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The extreme European summer 2012
The European summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting rainfall anomalies, which led to flooding in northern Europe and droughts and wildfires in southern Europe. This season was not an isolated event, rather the latest in a string of summers characterized by a southward shifted Atlantic storm track as described by the negative phase of the SNAO. The degree of decadal variability in these features suggests a role for forcing from outside the dynamical atmosphere, and preliminary numerical experiments suggest that the global SST and low Arctic sea ice extent anomalies are likely to have played a role and that warm North Atlantic SSTs were a particular contributing factor. The direct effects of changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are not included in these experiments, but both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability may have influenced the SST and sea ice changes
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