Policy bubbles: What factors drive their birth, maturity and death?

A policy bubble is a policy overreaction that is reinforced by positive feedback over a relatively long period of time. Policy bubbles impose social costs without producing offsetting benefits. Moshe Maor explores this phenomenon and explains how it may mature as a result of over-optimism and overconfidence among policymakers and the general public, or as a result of human herding and emotional contagion

Understanding policy over- and underreactions in times of crisis

Not all crises are met with proportionate policies: there can sometimes be a lack of balance between the costs of a policy and the benefits that are derived from it. Moshe Maor sets out a conceptual toolbox to help understand these responses. He argues that disporportionate responses are not necessarily the result of error, but can be intentionally designed and, under certain circumstances, be successfuly in achieving policy goals

The dynamics of minority rule: Intra-party politics and minority governments in Western Europe.

The aim of this study is to provide a theoretical and empirical explanation of the question: How do conflicts within a party affect its coalitional behaviour insofar as such conflicts may influence the bargaining power of party elites in the parliamentary arena. There are three major themes around which the theoretical explanation is organized. The first theme is that 'party institutionalization' and the nature of intra-party conflicts are important factors in shaping the ability of the party elites to neutralize internal conflicts. The second theme - a particular application of the first - is that the strength of a party in the parliamentary bargaining plane (i.e. its relative bargaining power) lies in its organization weakness. The third theme reveals that political parties, which are characterized by the existence of heterogeneous and diffused mechanisms for internal dissent, can handle internal conflicts in a variety of ways without forcing members to leave the party. Based upon a comparative analysis of intra-party conflicts and minority governments in Denmark, Norway, France, Italy and the U.K., the study suggests that weakly institutionalized parties can enter into conflict inducing coalition negotiations without risking their hold on their membership, whereas inter-party negotiations can lead to disintegration of highly institutionalized parties as members may be forced to leave the party as their primary mechanism for expression of discontent. A major implication of this study is that in multi-party systems in which minority situations occur, the most attractive strategy (i.e. in terms of bargaining power) for highly institutionalized parties occupying a governmental position is the formation of informal minority governments, whereas the most attractive strategy for weakly institutionalized parties is the formation of formal minority governments

A social network perspective on the interaction between policy bubbles

Studies of policy bubbles have so far ignored the possibility that a policy bubble in a given policy domain or jurisdiction may constitute an information event for another policy bubble that has been inflated elsewhere. In addition, studies of policy diffusion have paid little attention to the transmission of imperfect and wrongful policy valuations through social networks. To bridge these gaps, this article develops a theoretical framework and methodological toolbox for explaining the potential impact of interbubble dynamics on the sustainment of policy bubbles. This is achieved by focusing on: (i) the diffusion of interbubble connectivity information through social networks characterized by varying levels of segregation; (ii) the perceptions of distorted or corrected information by individuals at the receiving end as being factual, thus requiring no gap-filling by policy actors, or as an opinion that therefore requires gap-filling; (iii) the derived consequence in terms of simple or complex contagion; and (iv) its impact on the sustainment of policy bubbles. The main contribution of the article lies in unpacking the potential causal mechanisms through which a policy bubble can be sustained, even if positive feedback processes and contagion in the jurisdiction within which it developed no longer bolster its support bases

Utilizing risk-controlling prediction calibration to reduce false alarm rates in epileptic seizure prediction

IntroductionEpilepsy is a neurological disease characterized by sudden, unprovoked seizures. The unexpected nature of epileptic seizures is a major component of the disease burden. Predicting seizure onset and alarming patients may allow timely intervention, which would improve clinical outcomes and patient quality of life. Currently, algorithms aiming to predict seizures suffer from a high false alarm rate, rendering them unsuitable for clinical use.MethodsWe adopted here a risk-controllingprediction calibration method called Learn then Test to reduce false alarm rates of seizure prediction. This method calibrates the output of a “black-box” model to meet a specified false alarm rate requirement. The method was initially validated on synthetic data and subsequently tested on publicly available electroencephalogram (EEG) records from 15 patients with epilepsy by calibrating the outputs of a deep learning model.Results and discussionValidation showed that the calibration method rigorously controlled the false alarm rate at a user-desired level after our adaptation. Real data testing showed an average of 92% reduction in the false alarm rate, at the cost of missing four of nine seizures of six patients. Better-performing prediction models combined with the proposed method may facilitate the clinical use of real-time seizure prediction systems

Proportionate and disproportionate policy responses to climate change: core concepts and empirical applications

A fresh perspective on policy-making and planning has emerged which views disproportionate policy as an intentional policy response. A disproportionate policy response is understood to be a lack of‘fit’or balance between the costs of a public policy and the benefits that are derived from this policy, and between policy ends and means. This paper applies this new perspective on the proportionality of policy-making to the area of climate change. The first part of the paper discusses the underlying causes of disproportionate policy responses in broad terms and then applies the theoretical reasoning to understand the conditions in which they are likely to appear in relation to climate change. These conditions are hypothesized to relate to four main factors: economic considerations; levels of public demand; focusing events; and strategic considerations. It concludes with the suggestion that societal actors may be able to manipulate these four factors to encourage politicians to adopt policies that mitigate climate change more rapidly than is currently the case in most countries

A Pomeron Approach to Hadron-Nucleus and Nucleus-Nucleus "Soft" Interactions at High Energy

We formulate a generalization of the Glauber formalism for hadron-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions based on the Pomeron approach to high energy interactions. Our treatment is based on two physical assumptions (i.e. two small parameters) : (i) that only sufficiently small distances contribute to the Pomeron structure; and (ii) the triple Pomeron vertex $G_{3P}/g_{P-N} \ll 1$ (where $g_{P-N}$ is the Pomeron-nucleon vertex) is small. A systematic method is developed for calculating the total, elastic and diffractive dissociation cross sections as well as the survival probability of large rapidity gap processes and inclusive observables, both for hadron - nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions. Our approach suggests saturation of the density of the produced hadrons in nucleus-nucleus collisions, the value of the saturation density turns out to be large and depends on the number of nucleons in the lightest nucleus.Comment: 54 pages, 63 figure

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection