Assessment of Risk Factors and Biomarkers Associated With Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among Women Consuming a Mediterranean Diet

IMPORTANCE Higher Mediterranean diet (MED) intake has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but limited data are available about the underlying molecular mechanisms of this inverse disease association in human populations. OBJECTIVE To better characterize the relative contribution of traditional and novel factors to the MED-related risk reduction in CVD events in a US population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a prospective cohort design, baseline MED intake was assessed in 25 994 initially healthy US women in theWomen's Health Study who were followed up to 12 years. Potential mediating effects of a panel of 40 biomarkers were evaluated, including lipids, lipoproteins, apolipoproteins, inflammation, glucose metabolism and insulin resistance, branched-chain amino acids, small-molecule metabolites, and clinical factors. Baseline study information and samples were collected between April 30, 1993, and January 24, 1996. Analyses were conducted between August 1, 2017, and October 30, 2018. EXPOSURES Intake of MED is a 9-category measure of adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern. Participants were categorized into 3 levels based on their adherence to the MED. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident CVD confirmed through medical records and the proportion of CVD risk reduction explained by mediators. RESULTS Among 25 994women (mean [SD] age, 54.7 [7.1] years), those with low, middle, and upper MED intakes composed 39.0%, 36.2%, and 24.8% of the study population and experienced 428 (4.2%), 356 (3.8%), and 246 (3.8%) incident CVD events, respectively. Compared with the reference group who had low MED intake, CVD risk reductions were observed for the middle and upper groups, with respective HRs of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.90) and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.61-0.86) (P for trend < .001). The largest mediators of the CVD risk reduction of MED intake were biomarkers of inflammation (accounting for 29.2% of the MED-CVD association), glucose metabolism and insulin resistance (27.9%), and body mass index (27.3%), followed by blood pressure (26.6%), traditional lipids (26.0%), high-density lipoprotein measures (24.0%) or very low-density lipoprotein measures (20.8%), with lesser contributions from low-density lipoproteins (13.0%), branched-chain amino acids (13.6%), apolipoproteins (6.5%), or other small-molecule metabolites (5.8%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, higher MED intake was associated with approximately one-fourth relative risk reduction in CVD events, which could be explained in part by known risk factors, both traditional and novel

Risk Factors for the Development of New-Onset Persistent Atrial Fibrillation: Subanalysis of the VITAL Study.

BACKGROUND Sustained forms of atrial fibrillation (AF) are associated with lower treatment success rates and poorer prognosis compared with paroxysmal AF. Yet, little is known about risk factors that predispose to persistent AF on initial presentation. Our objective was to define risk factors associated with new-onset persistent AF. METHODS We prospectively examined the differential associations between lifestyle, clinical, and socioeconomic risk factors and AF pattern (persistent versus paroxysmal) at the time of diagnosis among 25 119 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease, AF, or cancer in the VITAL rhythm study (Vitamin D and Omega-3). RESULTS During a median follow-up of 5.3 years, 900 participants developed AF and 346 (38.4%) were classified as persistent at the time of diagnosis. In multivariable competing risk models, increasing age, male sex, White race, height, weight, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, hypertension, current or past smoking, alcohol intake ≥2 drinks/day, postcollege education, and randomized treatment with vitamin D were significantly associated with incident persistent AF. Compared with paroxysmal AF, increasing age, male sex, weight, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, and postcollege education were more strongly associated with persistent AF in multivariable models regardless of whether interim cardiovascular disease and heart failure events were censored. CONCLUSIONS In a prospective cohort without baseline AF or cardiovascular disease, over one-third of AF at the time of diagnosis is persistent. Older age, male sex, postcollege education, and obesity were preferentially associated with persistent AF and represent a high-risk AF subset for population-based intervention

Arrhythmic Sudden Death Survival Prediction Using Deep Learning Analysis of Scarring in the Heart

Sudden cardiac death from arrhythmia is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Here, we develop a novel deep learning (DL) approach that blends neural networks and survival analysis to predict patient-specific survival curves from contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance images and clinical covariates for patients with ischemic heart disease. The DL-predicted survival curves offer accurate predictions at times up to 10 years and allow for estimation of uncertainty in predictions. The performance of this learning architecture was evaluated on multi-center internal validation data and tested on an independent test set, achieving concordance index of 0.83 and 0.74, and 10-year integrated Brier score of 0.12 and 0.14. We demonstrate that our DL approach with only raw cardiac images as input outperforms standard survival models constructed using clinical covariates. This technology has the potential to transform clinical decision-making by offering accurate and generalizable predictions of patient-specific survival probabilities of arrhythmic death over time

Validation of electrocardiographic criteria for identifying left ventricular dysfunction in patients with previous myocardial infarction

Background Eleven criteria correlating electrocardiogram (ECG) findings with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) have been previously published. These have not been compared head‐to‐head in a single study. We studied their value as a screening test to identify patients with reduced LVEF estimated by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging. Methods ECGs and CMR from 548 patients (age 61 + 11 years, 79% male) with previous myocardial infarction (MI), from the DETERMINE and PRE‐DETERMINE studies, were analyzed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of each criterion for identifying patients with LVEF ≤ 30% and ≤ 40% were studied. A useful screening test should have high sensitivity and NPV. Results Mean LVEF was 40% (SD = 11%); 264 patients (48.2%) had LVEF ≤ 40%, and 96 patients (17.5%) had LVEF ≤ 30%. Six of 11 criteria were associated with a significant lower LVEF, but had poor sensitivity to identify LVEF ≤ 30% (range 2.1%–55.2%) or LVEF ≤ 40% (1.1%–51.1%); NPVs were good for LVEF ≤ 30% (range 82.8%–85.9%) but not for LVEF ≤ 40% (range 52.1%–60.6%). Goldberger's third criterion (RV4/SV4  124 ms + either Goldberger's third criterion or Goldberger's first criterion (SV1 or SV2 + RV5 or RV6 ≥ 3.5 mV) had high specificity (95.4%–100%) for LVEF ≤ 40%, although seen in only 48 (8.8%) patients; predictive values were similar on subgroup analysis. Conclusions None of the ECG criteria qualified as a good screening test. Three criteria had high specificity for LVEF ≤ 40%, although seen in < 9% of patients. Whether other ECG criteria can better identify LV dysfunction remains to be determined

Association of N-Linked Glycoprotein Acetyls and Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality

Background: Acute phase proteins highlight the dynamic interaction between inflammation and oncogenesis. GlycA, a novel nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) inflammatory marker that identifies primarily circulating N-acetyl glycan groups attached to acute phase proteins, may be a future CRC risk biomarker. Methods: We examined the association between GlycA and incident CRC and mortality in two prospective cohorts (N = 34,320); Discovery cohort: 27,495 participants from Women's Health Study (WHS); Replication cohort: 6,784 participants from Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Multivariable Cox models were adjusted for clinical risk factors and compared GlycA to acute phase proteins (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hsCRP], fibrinogen, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 [sICAM-1]). Results: In WHS (median follow-up 19 years, 337 cases, 103 deaths), adjusted HRs (95% CIs) per SD increment of GlycA for CRC incidence and mortality were 1.19 (1.06–1.35; p = 0.004) and 1.24 (1.00–1.55; p = 0.05), respectively. We replicated findings in MESA (median follow-up 11 years, 70 cases, 23 deaths); HRs (95% CIs) per SD of GlycA for CRC incidence and mortality were 1.32 (1.06–1.65; p = 0.01) and 1.54 (1.06–2.23; p = 0.02), respectively, adjusting for age, sex, and race. Pooled analysis, adjusted HR (95% CI) per SD of GlycA for CRC incidence and mortality was 1.26 (1.15–1.39; p = 1 x 10−6). Other acute phase proteins (hsCRP, fibrinogen, and sICAM-1) had weaker or no association with CRC incidence, while only fibrinogen and GlycA were associated with CRC mortality. Conclusions: The clinical utility of GlycA to personalize CRC therapies or prevention warrants further study. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov: WHS NCT00000479, MESA NCT0000548