Using remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds.

Coastal flooding is increasingly common in many areas. However, the degree of inundation and associated disruption depend on local topography as well as the distribution of people, infrastructure and economic activity along the coast. Local measures of flooding that are comparable over large areas are difficult to obtain. Here we use the remarkability of flood events, measured by flood-related posts on social media, to estimate county-specific flood thresholds for shoreline counties along the east coast of the United States. While thresholds in most counties are statistically-indistinguishable from minor flood thresholds of nearby tide gauges, we find evidence that several areas experience noticeable flooding at tide heights lower than existing flood thresholds. These 22 counties include several major cities such as Miami, New York, and Boston, with a total population over 13 million. Our analysis implies that large populations might currently be exposed to nuisance flooding not identified via standard measures

Toppling the Tripod: Sustainable Development, Constructive Ambiguity and the Environmental Challenge

Discussions of global environmental governance seem to have gotten nowhere in the last thirty years despite environmental problems that continue to grow in scope and magnitude. Here, the role of sustainable development in that failure is examined, particularly the constructively ambiguous nature of the paradigm. It is suggested that an emphasis on the shifting, contextualized and relative term ―"needs" in the definition of sustainable development has led to paralysis at the international level in addressing environmental problems, particularly climate change. Contradictions that emerge when sustainable development is formalized in economic models as weak and strong sustainability are discussed. Finally, promising future pathways for environmental actions are explored

Climate adaptation by crop migration.

Many studies have estimated the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields, however, this literature almost universally assumes a constant geographic distribution of crops in the future. Movement of growing areas to limit exposure to adverse climate conditions has been discussed as a theoretical adaptive response but has not previously been quantified or demonstrated at a global scale. Here, we assess how changes in rainfed crop area have already mediated growing season temperature trends for rainfed maize, wheat, rice, and soybean using spatially-explicit climate and crop area data from 1973 to 2012. Our results suggest that the most damaging impacts of warming on rainfed maize, wheat, and rice have been substantially moderated by the migration of these crops over time and the expansion of irrigation. However, continued migration may incur substantial environmental costs and will depend on socio-economic and political factors in addition to land suitability and climate

Mitigation of short-lived greenhouse gases as the foundation for a fair and effective climate compromise between China and the West

Short-lived greenhouse gases that also contribute to air pollution are playing a major role in global warming. Black carbon alone is likely the second or third most important climate forcing agent. The short atmospheric lifetime of these pollutants means that, unlike CO2, reducing emissions produces a decrease in atmospheric concentration and a reduction of the radiative forcing that drives climate change. Black carbon and tropospheric ozone also have large negative effects at the regional and local level contributing substantially to indoor and urban air pollution and the formation of Atmospheric Brown Clouds that disrupt regional climate. Moreover, technologies to reduce emissions are available, cost-effective, and have already been widely deployed in developed countries. Reducing these short-lived greenhouse gases is therefore a mitigation pathway for industrializing countries that is both appropriate to their level of development and highly climatically effective. It is also consistent with both responsibility and capability fairness principles, both of which play important roles in the international climate regime. As such, it offers a way out of the current deadlock between developed and developing countries in which each group asks for more substantial emissions reduction commitments from the other before taking action. China, as the world’s largest black carbon emitter, should push for substantial CO2 mitigation commitments from the developed countries in return for aggressive action to reduce its own soot emissions. This action is consistent with China’s own development strategy and would contribute substantially to the mitigation of climate change

Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change

The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans' ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 ∘C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 ∘C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline

Independent evaluation of a simple clinical prediction rule to identify right ventricular dysfunction in patients with shortness of breath

BACKGROUND: Many patients have unexplained persistent dyspnea after negative computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA). We hypothesized that many of these patients have isolated right ventricular (RV) dysfunction from treatable causes. We previously derived a clinical decision rule (CDR) for predicting RV dysfunction consisting of persistent dyspnea and normal CTPA, finding that 53% of CDR-positive patients had isolated RV dysfunction. Our goal is to validate this previously derived CDR by measuring the prevalence of RV dysfunction and outcomes in dyspneic emergency department patients. METHODS: A secondary analysis of a prospective observational multicenter study that enrolled patients presenting with suspected PE was performed. We included patients with persistent dyspnea, a nonsignificant CTPA, and formal echo performed. Right ventricular dysfunction was defined as RV hypokinesis and/or dilation with or without moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation. RESULTS: A total of 7940 patients were enrolled. Two thousand six hundred sixteen patients were analyzed after excluding patients without persistent dyspnea and those with a significant finding on CTPA. One hundred ninety eight patients had echocardiography performed as standard care. Of those, 19% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14%-25%) and 33% (95% CI, 25%-42%) exhibited RV dysfunction and isolated RV dysfunction, respectively. Patients with isolated RV dysfunction or overload were more likely than those without RV dysfunction to have a return visit to the emergency department within 45 days for the same complaint (39% vs 18%; 95% CI of the difference, 4%-38%). CONCLUSION: This simple clinical prediction rule predicted a 33% prevalence of isolated RV dysfunction or overload. Patients with isolated RV dysfunction had higher recidivism rates and a trend toward worse outcomes

New potential to reduce uncertainty in regional climate projections by combining physical and socio‐economic constraints

Combining new constraints on future socio-economic trajectories and the climate system's response to emissions can substantially reduce the projection uncertainty currently clouding regional climate adaptation decisions—more than either constraint individually

Willin/FRMD6 influences mechanical phenotype and neuronal differentiation in mammalian cells by regulating ERK1/2 activity

This research was financially supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Programme Grant (EP/P030017/1) and by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Tools and Resources Development Fund (BB/P027148/1).Willin/FRMD6 is part of a family of proteins with a 4.1 ezrin-radixin-moesin (FERM) domain. It has been identified as an upstream activator of the Hippo pathway and, when aberrant in its expression, is associated with human diseases and disorders. Even though Willin/FRMD6 was originally discovered in the rat sciatic nerve, most studies have focused on its functional roles in cells outside of the nervous system, where Willin/FRMD6 is involved in the formation of apical junctional cell-cell complexes and in regulating cell migration. Here, we investigate the biochemical and biophysical role of Willin/FRMD6 in neuronal cells, employing the commonly used SH-SY5Y neuronal model cell system and combining biochemical measurements with Elastic Resonator Interference Stress Micropscopy (ERISM). We present the first direct evidence that Willin/FRMD6 expression influences both the cell mechanical phenotype and neuronal differentiation. By investigating cells with increased and decreased Willin/FRMD6 expression levels, we show that Willin/FRMD6 not only affects proliferation and migration capacity of cells but also leads to changes in cell morphology and an enhanced formation of neurite-like membrane extensions. These changes were accompanied by alterations of biophysical parameters such as cell force, the organization of actin stress fibers and the formation of focal adhesions. At the biochemical level, changes in Willin/FRMD6 expression inversely affected the activity of the extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERK) pathway and downstream transcriptional factor NeuroD1, which seems to prime SH-SY5Y cells for retinoic acid (RA)-induced neuronal differentiation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A description of interventions promoting healthier ready-to-eat meals (to eat in, to take away, or to be delivered) sold by specific food outlets in England: a systematic mapping and evidence synthesis

Abstract Background Ready-to-eat meals (to eat in, to take away or to be delivered) sold by food outlets are often more energy dense and nutrient poor compared with meals prepared at home, making them a reasonable target for public health intervention. The aim of the research presented in this paper was to systematically identify and describe interventions to promote healthier ready-to-eat meals (to eat in, to take away, or to be delivered) sold by specific food outlets in England. Methods A systematic search and sift of the literature, followed by evidence mapping of relevant interventions, was conducted. Food outlets were included if they were located in England, were openly accessible to the public and, as their main business, sold ready-to-eat meals. Academic databases and grey literature were searched. Also, local authorities in England, topic experts, and key health professionals and workers were contacted. Two tiers of evidence synthesis took place: type, content and delivery of each intervention were summarised (Tier 1) and for those interventions that had been evaluated, a narrative synthesis was conducted (Tier 2). Results A total of 75 interventions were identified, the most popular being awards. Businesses were more likely to engage with cost neutral interventions which offered imperceptible changes to price, palatability and portion size. Few interventions involved working upstream with suppliers of food, the generation of customer demand, the exploration of competition effects, and/or reducing portion sizes. Evaluations of interventions were generally limited in scope and of low methodological quality, and many were simple assessments of acceptability. Conclusions Many interventions promoting healthier ready-to-eat meals (to eat in, to take away, or to be delivered) sold by specific food outlets in England are taking place; award-type interventions are the most common. Proprietors of food outlets in England that, as their main business, sell ready-to-eat meals, can be engaged in implementing interventions to promote healthier ready-to-eat-food. These proprietors are generally positive about such interventions, particularly when they are cost neutral and use a health by stealth approach

Mimi-PAGE, an open-source implementation of the PAGE09 integrated assessment model

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have become critical tools for assessing the costs and benefits of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Three models currently inform the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2, the net present value of damages from one additional ton of CO2) used by the US federal government, several states, and Canada. Here we present a new open-source implementation of one of these models (PAGE09) in the Julia programming language using a modular modeling framework (Mimi). Mimi-PAGE was coded using best coding practices (such as multiple code reviews by different individuals during development, automated testing of newly-committed code, and provision of documentation and usage notes) and is publicly available in a GitHub repository for community inspection and use under an open source license. In this paper we describe the Julia implementation of PAGE09, show that output from Mimi-PAGE matches that of the original model, and perform comparisons of the run time between the two implementations