Important factors in the maximum likelihood analysis of flight test maneuvers

The information presented is based on the experience in the past 12 years at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center of estimating stability and control derivatives from over 3500 maneuvers from 32 aircraft. The overall approach to the analysis of dynamic flight test data is outlined. General requirements for data and instrumentation are discussed and several examples of the types of problems that may be encountered are presented

The generalized Ekman model for the tropical cyclone boundary layer revisited: Addendum

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4012Motivated by prior research examining the myth of inertial stability as a radial restoring force in the tropical cyclone boundary layer, we explore factors deter mining the vertical velocity at the top of the linear vortex boundary layer. Possible applications of these findings to mature tropical cyclone vortices are discussed briefly.NSFONRAGS-1313948 and IAA-1656075N0001417WX 00336,U.S. Naval Postgraduate Schoo

Effective buoyancy and CAPE: Some implications for tropical cyclones

We review the widely used concepts of buoyancy and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in relation to deep convection in tropical cyclones and discuss their limitations. A fact easily forgotten in applying these concepts is that the buoyancy force of an air parcel, as often defined, is non-unique because it depends on the arbitrary definition of a reference density field. However, when calculating CAPE, the buoyancy of a lifted air parcel is related to the specific reference density field along a vertical column passing through that parcel. Both concepts can be generalized for a vortical flow and to slantwise ascent of a lifted air parcel in such a flow. In all cases, the air parcel is assumed to have infinitely small dimensions. In this article, we explore the consequences of generalizing buoyancy and CAPE for buoyant regions of finite size that perturb the pressure field in their immediate environment. Quantitative calculations of effective buoyancy, defined as the sum of the conventional buoyancy and the static vertical perturbation pressure gradient force induced by it, are shown for buoyant regions of finite width. For a judicious choice of reference density, the effective buoyancy per unit mass is essentially a unique force, independent of the reference density, but its distribution depends on the horizontal scale of the buoyant region. A corresponding concept of effective CAPE is introduced and its relevance to deep convection in tropical cyclones is discussed. The study is conceived as a first step to understanding the decreasing ability of inner-core deep convection in tropical cyclones to ventilate the mass of air converging in the frictional boundary layer as the vortex matures and decays

Kinetic modelling and molecular dynamics simulation of ultracold neutral plasmas including ionic correlations

A kinetic approach for the evolution of ultracold neutral plasmas including interionic correlations and the treatment of ionization/excitation and recombination/deexcitation by rate equations is described in detail. To assess the reliability of the approximations inherent in the kinetic model, we have developed a hybrid molecular dynamics method. Comparison of the results reveals that the kinetic model describes the atomic and ionic observables of the ultracold plasma surprisingly well, confirming our earlier findings concerning the role of ion-ion correlations [Phys. Rev. A {\bf 68}, 010703]. In addition, the molecular dynamics approach allows one to study the relaxation of the ionic plasma component towards thermodynamical equilibrium

A unified view of tropical cyclogenesis and intensification

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological SocietyThe article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2934Idealized high-resolution numerical simulations of tropical cyclogenesis are presented in a model that represents deep convection by a warm rain process only. Starting with an initially weak, cloud-free, axisymmetric warm-cored vortex (maximum wind speed 5 m s−1 at a radius of 100 km), rapid vortex intensification begins after a gestation period on the order of 2 days. From a three-dimensional perspective, the genesis process is similar to that in the rotating convection paradigm for vortex intensification starting with a much stronger initial vortex (Vmax = 15 m s−1). The patterns of deep convection and convectively amplified cyclonic relative vorticity are far from axisymmetric during the genesis period. Moreover, the organization of the cyclonic relative vorticity into a monopole structure occurs at relatively low wind speeds, before the maximum local wind speed has increased appreciably. Barotropic processes are shown to play an important role in helping to consolidate a single-signed vorticity monopole within a few hours near the intensification begin time. The rotating convection paradigm appears adequate to explain the basic genesis process within the weak initial vortex, providing strong support for a hypothesis of Montgomery and Smith that the genesis process is not fundamentally different from that of vortex intensification. In particular, genesis does not require a ‘trigger’ and does not depend on the prior existence of a mid-level vortex.Funded by Naval Postgraduate SchoolOffice of Naval Research GlobalNOAA HFIPNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationDeutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftNational Science Foundatio

Mortality following a brain tumour diagnosis in patients with multiple sclerosis

Objectives: As brain tumours and their treatment may theoretically have a poorer prognosis in inflammatory central nervous system diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS), all-cause mortality following a brain tumour diagnosis was compared between patients with and without MS. The potential role of age at tumour diagnosis was also examined. Setting: Hospital inpatients in Sweden with assessment of mortality in hospital or following discharge. Participants: Swedish national registers identified 20 543 patients with an MS diagnosis (1969-2005) and they were matched individually to produce a comparison cohort of 204 163 members of the general population without MS. Everyone with a primary brain tumour diagnosis was selected for this study: 111 with MS and 907 without MS. Primary and secondary outcome measures: 5-year mortality risk following brain tumour diagnosis and age at brain tumour diagnosis. Results: A non-statistically significant lower mortality risk among patients with MS (lower for those with tumours of high-grade and uncertain-grade malignancy and no notable difference for low-grade tumours) produced an unadjusted HR (and 95% CI) of 0.75 (0.56 to 1.02). After adjustment for age at diagnosis, grade of malignancy, sex, region of residence and socioeconomic index, the HR is 0.91 (0.67-1.24). The change in estimate was largely due to adjustment for age at brain tumour diagnosis, as patients with MS were on average 4.7 years younger at brain tumour diagnosis than those in the comparison cohort (p<0.001). Conclusions: Younger age at tumour diagnosis may contribute to mortality reduction in those with highgrade and uncertain-grade brain tumours. Survival following a brain tumour is not worse in patients with MS; even after age at brain tumour diagnosis and grade of malignancy are taken into account

Prediction and diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone formation in an NWP system. Part I

J. Atmos. Sci., 63 3077-3090The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS3765.

An Observational Study of Tropical Cyclone Spinup in Supertyphoon Jangmi (2008) from 24 to 27 September

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00306.1An observational study of tropical cyclone intensification is performed using dropsondes, in situ flight-level data, satellite imagery, and Electra Doppler Radar (ELDORA) during the spinup of Tropical Storm Jangmi (2008) in the western North Pacific. This event was observed with research aircraft during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS08) field experiment over the course of 3 days as Jangmi intensified rapidly from a tropical storm to a supertyphoon. The dropsonde analysis indicates that the peak azimuthally averaged storm-relative tangential wind speed occurs persistently within the boundary layer throughout the spinup period and suggests that significant supergradient winds are present near and just within the radius of maximum tangential winds. An examination of the ELDORA data in Tropical Storm Jangmi reveals multiple rotating updrafts near the developing eye beneath cold cloud top temperatures ≤ -65°C. In particular, there is a 12-km-wide, upright updraft with a peak velocity of 9m s¯¹ with collocated strong low-level (z < 2 km) convergence of 2 x 10¯³ s¯¹ and intense relative vorticity of 4 x 10¯³ s¯¹. The analysis of the corresponding infrared satellite imagery suggests that vortical updrafts are common before and during rapid intensification. The findings of this study support a recent paradigm of tropical cyclone intensification in which rotating convective clouds are important elements in the spinup process. In a system-scale view of this process, the maximum tangential wind is found within the boundary layer, where the tangential wind becomes supergradient before the air ascends into the eyewall updraft.Naval Postgraduate SchoolOffice of Naval Research (Grant N001408WR20129),National Science FoundationOffice of Naval Research (Grant N001408WR20129