Induced maritime accidents

Humanity system of life is highly supported by maritime transport when circa 8 thousand million people require about 8.800 million tons of merchandises by sea, going in some 105.000 merchant ships of over 100 GT, sailing every thinkable dangerous waters 365 days year 24 hours day. All that Enormous activity plus others different factors produce accidents, as is shown in an ascendant 1.7 rate related to ships lost with big number in life, cargoes losses, and pollution. That is why this study pretend to detect causes factors of maritime accidents, to try to reduce them, and with that target in mind it was tested the new theory of Induced Maritime Accidents, crossing its proposals with relevant sinister of different times and circumstances, as Andrea Doria, Torrey Canyon, Costa Concordia, among others. Those cases were re evaluated to establish the key points of such theory, as they are the Production Pressure, the Risk Homeostasis, technological advances and the rupture of safety margin. Cases studies gave as result the existence of referred key points, in a manner combined that the chain of events derived to the fatality, and more than that highlights the possibility that been suppressed to acceptable limits the production pressure or the risk homeostasis, a permissible safety margin were been maintained, avoiding catastrophe.Postprint (published version

Evaluación de riesgos (ER) en un terminal de buques tanqueros, basada en la norma ISO-31000:2018 y técnicas cuali-cuantitativas

Este estudio tiene como propósito evaluar los riesgos de un muelle que forma parte de un terminal de buques tanqueros, la evaluación consideró la norma ISO-31000:2018. En concordancia con el objeto de estudio, se aplicaron las fases: alcance, contexto, criterios y evaluación del riesgo[1]. Se identificaron las siguientes áreas: seguridad y salud ocupacional, ambiente, fenómenos de la naturaleza e integridad de los bienes. Para la fase de identificación se realizó una combinación de técnicas, que incluyó la observación in situ, torbellino de ideas e identificación de peligros (HAZID). En cuanto al análisis, se utilizó el método simplificado de la ER y para la valoración el modelo Tolerabilidad de Riesgo (ToR). Los resultados determinaron el nivel para cada uno de los riesgos, a saber: fuego, explosión, daños corporales, polución por residuos sólidos, polución por residuos líquidos, tormentas tropicales, corrosión y daños a la infraestructura y equipos

Presentación de estros en hembras bovinas receptoras en una estación de transferencia de embriones. I. predicción

In order to determine their association and establish the best fit model for the prediction of the probability of presentation of estros, the number of cycles, crossover, year, bimonthly and average of heat presentation during the period were evaluated by binomial logistic regression. between August 2001 and the same month of 2003. 2 622 estrous cycles of 80 recipients of the Mestizo Simmental (n = 23) and Mestizo Holstein (n = 57) crosses located in an Embryo Transfer Station of the Jimaguayú municipality were assessed in the province of Camaguey, Cuba. Of the five models used, the best fit: 74.9% of correct predictions, was achieved with the average variables of presentation of heat, cross, cycle and bimester (Model 1). The average heat presentation in all the models in which it was used (1 and 4) was the variable with the greatest contribution, which shows its importance. It is recommended to extend this methodology to other stations in the country and in females that are cycling belonging to dairy herds in which there is an adequate organization of the detection of estrus.Con el objetivo de determinar su asociación y establecer el modelo de mejor ajuste para la predicción de la probabilidad de presentación de estros , se evaluaron mediante regresión logística binomial el número de ciclos, cruce, año, bimestre y average de presentación de celo durante el periodo comprendido entre agosto de 2001 e igual mes de 2003. Se valoraron 2 622 ciclos estrales de 80 receptoras de los cruzamientos Mestizo Simmental (n=23) y Mestizo Holstein (n=57) ubicadas en una Estación de Transferencia de Embriones del municipio Jimaguayú en la provincia de Camagüey, Cuba. De los cinco modelos empleados, el mejor ajuste: 74.9 % de predicciones correctas, se logró con las variables average de presentación de celo, cruzamiento, ciclo y bimestre (Modelo 1). El average de presentación de celo en todos los modelos en que fue utilizado (1 y 4) fue la variable de mayor aporte, lo que evidencia su importancia. Se recomienda extender esta metodología a otras estaciones del país y en hembras que se encuentren ciclando pertenecientes a rebaños lecheros en los que exista una adecuada organización de la detección del estro

Classification of Dairy Farms According to Intensification of Production Based on a New Management Model

This study took place between 2011 and 2015 in order to classify dairy farms according to the scope of production intensification, based on a new management model. The study lasted five years, and it covered 90 local farms in Jimaguayú-Camagüey, and comprised 450 cases. The information was collected through interviews to farmers in their working places. Production intensification indicators were chosen for classification. Principal Component Analysis was used, which resulted in three new dimensions: areas, diversity and supplies. Finally, the sample was classified by k means clustering analysis, depending on every dimension and production intensification. Concerning the areas, the mid and mid-high categories prevailed. The opposite was observed in diversification and supplies, where the two former engulfed most cases, with low and mid values for their indicators

Clasificación de fincas lecheras según dimensiones de la intensificación productiva en un nuevo modelo de gestión.

El trabajo se desarrolló entre 2011 al 2015 con el objetivo clasificar fincas lecheras según dimensiones de la intensificación productiva en  un nuevo modelo de gestión. Fueron seleccionadas 90 fincas de la región Jimaguayú-Camagüey, quedando conformada la muestra por 450 casos, pertenecientes a cinco años de estudio. La información se obtuvo a través de entrevistas a los productores en las áreas de trabajo. Para la clasificación fueron seleccionados indicadores de intensificación productiva; se aplicó el análisis de componente principal, con lo que se obtuvieron tres nuevas dimensiones, denominadas áreas, diversidad e insumos; finalmente fue clasificada la muestra mediante un análisis de conglomerados k-means clustering, en correspondencia con cada dimensión de la intensificación produ c-tiva. En relación a las áreas se observó un predominio para las categorías de media y media-alta, no así en la diversi-ficación y los insumos, donde las dos primeras agruparon la mayor cantidad de casos, con valores bajos y medios, para los indicadores que la forman.Classification of Dairy Farms According to Dimensions of Production Intensification Based on a New Management Model.ABSTRACTThis study took place between 2011 and 2015 in order to classify dairy farms according to the scope of production intensification based on a new management model. The study  lasted five years, and  comprised 90  local farms in Jimaguayú-Camagüey, which included a sample of 450 cases. The information was collected through interviews to farmers in their working places. Production intensification indicators were chosen for classification. Principal Com-ponent Analysis was used, which resulted in three new dimensions, named areas, diversity and supplies. Finally, the sample was classified by k means clustering conglomerate analysis, depending on every dimension and production intensification. Regarding the areas, the mid and mid-high categories were observed to prevail. The opposite was ob-served in diversification and supplies, where the two former  engulfed  most cases, with low and mid values for their indicators

Metodología y criterios para la elaboración de un modelo sistémico para la investigación de accidentes marítimos acorde con el cumplimiento de la normativa internacional : caso de estudio : Venezuela

The main objective of this study is: To design a Systemic Model for the investigation of marine accidents which allow transforming the information gathered in the determination of the causes, circumstances, consequences, safety recommendations, in developing a comprehensive and free disclosure, publication, and access of such results, with the object that it can be learned the lesson the investigation of the incident gender. To accomplish that, it was fulfilled: 1-Determine the features: a) laws, and b) organizational structural and operation of multiple research entities in maritime accidents, global, regional, and local, cope with the demands of the international regulations IMO, and thus establish a standard and compliance options, and other functionalities beyond, improving the rule; 2- Perform the same search in the case study; 3- Contrast the standard with such case; 4- establish a mesh of all the requirements for the investigation of maritime accidents, options, as well as those other extras that enhance the regulations, and on these establish concepts that integrated into the mesh to develop the systemic model, MSI; 5- Determine other characteristics and particular needs, of the case study, so as to do viable its specific MSI. The main result is that although the case study presents a solid structure, and a high level of training for their maritime inspectors, however fails conclusively to the principles of independence, authority and autonomy mandatory for the marine accident investigation of IMO level, also do not perform the lines of dissemination, access, or publication of the lessons learned. It enters the conceptual category developed in this study, of "tacit acceptance of irresponsibility". These weaknesses can be eliminated by applying the MSI that was developed in this study (SIAIMV) in addition the strength in the existing training can be extended to the full extent of the Nautical career of seafarers.El objetivo general de esta Tesis es Diseñar un Modelo Sistémico para la Investigación de Accidentes Marítimos que transforme la información recolectada, en la determinación de las causas, circunstancias, consecuencias, recomendaciones de seguridad pertinentes, desarrollar una amplia y libre divulgación, publicación, y acceso de tales resultados, para que se pueda aprender la lección que la investigación del siniestro generó. Convirtiéndose así en un agente de cambio. Para ello: 1-Determinó las características: a) legales y b) organizativas estructurales y de funcionamiento de entes investigadores de siniestros marítimos, globales, regionales y locales, ante la normativa internacional OMI, y estableció así un estándar, opciones de cumplimiento, y otras funcionalidades mejorando la norma; 2- realizó tal búsqueda en el caso de estudio; 3- Contrastó el estándar con dicho caso; 4- estableció una Malla indicadora de todos los requerimientos para la investigación de tales accidentes, opciones, así como extras que mejoran la normativa, y sobre estos estableció conceptos integrados a la Malla y desarrolló el Modelo Sistémico, MSI; 5- Determinó otras características y necesidades del caso estudiado, para así hacer viable su MSI específico. El resultado es que aunque el caso de estudio presenta una estructura sólida, y un alto nivel de formación de sus inspectores marítimos, sin embargo incumple los principios de Independencia, Autoridad y Autonomía obligatorias para la investigación de accidentes marítimos del tenor OMI, no realiza la divulgación, acceso, ni publicación de las lecciones aprendidas. Lo que entra en la categoría conceptual desarrollada en esta Tesis, de "Aceptación Tácita de Irresponsabilidad". Debilidades estas que pueden eliminarse aplicando el MSI aquí desarrollado; y que la fortaleza existente en la formación puede ser extendida al total de la carrera de náutica.Postprint (published version

Induced maritime accidents

Humanity system of life is highly supported by maritime transport when circa 8 thousand million people require about 8.800 million tons of merchandises by sea, going in some 105.000 merchant ships of over 100 GT, sailing every thinkable dangerous waters 365 days year 24 hours day. All that Enormous activity plus others different factors produce accidents, as is shown in an ascendant 1.7 rate related to ships lost with big number in life, cargoes losses, and pollution. That is why this study pretend to detect causes factors of maritime accidents, to try to reduce them, and with that target in mind it was tested the new theory of Induced Maritime Accidents, crossing its proposals with relevant sinister of different times and circumstances, as Andrea Doria, Torrey Canyon, Costa Concordia, among others. Those cases were re evaluated to establish the key points of such theory, as they are the Production Pressure, the Risk Homeostasis, technological advances and the rupture of safety margin. Cases studies gave as result the existence of referred key points, in a manner combined that the chain of events derived to the fatality, and more than that highlights the possibility that been suppressed to acceptable limits the production pressure or the risk homeostasis, a permissible safety margin were been maintained, avoiding catastrophe

Induced maritime accidents

Humanity system of life is highly supported by maritime transport when circa 8 thousand million people require about 8.800 million tons of merchandises by sea, going in some 105.000 merchant ships of over 100 GT, sailing every thinkable dangerous waters 365 days year 24 hours day. All that Enormous activity plus others different factors produce accidents, as is shown in an ascendant 1.7 rate related to ships lost with big number in life, cargoes losses, and pollution. That is why this study pretend to detect causes factors of maritime accidents, to try to reduce them, and with that target in mind it was tested the new theory of Induced Maritime Accidents, crossing its proposals with relevant sinister of different times and circumstances, as Andrea Doria, Torrey Canyon, Costa Concordia, among others. Those cases were re evaluated to establish the key points of such theory, as they are the Production Pressure, the Risk Homeostasis, technological advances and the rupture of safety margin. Cases studies gave as result the existence of referred key points, in a manner combined that the chain of events derived to the fatality, and more than that highlights the possibility that been suppressed to acceptable limits the production pressure or the risk homeostasis, a permissible safety margin were been maintained, avoiding catastrophe