Decision Modeling Framework to Minimize Arrival Delays from Ground Delay Programs

Convective weather and other constraints create uncertainty in air transportation, leading to costly delays. A Ground Delay Program (GDP) is a strategy to mitigate these effects. Systematic decision support can increase GDP efficacy, reduce delays, and minimize direct operating costs. In this study, a decision analysis (DA) model is constructed by combining a decision tree and Bayesian belief network. Through a study of three New York region airports, the DA model demonstrates that larger GDP scopes that include more flights in the program, along with longer lead times that provide stakeholders greater notice of a pending program, trigger the fewest average arrival delays. These findings are demonstrated to result in a savings of up to $1,850 per flight. Furthermore, when convective weather is predicted, forecast weather confidences remain the same level or greater at least 70% of the time, supporting more strategic decision making. The DA model thus enables quantification of uncertainties and insights on causal relationships, providing support for future GDP decisions

Gaining from Losses: Using Disaster Loss Data as a Tool for Appraising Natural Disaster Policy

This dissertation capitalizes on an opportunity, untapped until now, to utilize data on disaster losses to appraise natural disaster policy. Through a set of three distinct studies, I use data on economic losses caused by natural disasters in order to analyze trends in disaster severity and answer important disaster policy questions. The first study reconciles the apparent disconnect between (a) claims that global disaster losses are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change and (b) studies that find regional losses are increasing due to socioeconomic factors. I assess climate change and global disaster severity through regional analyses derived by disaggregating global loss data into their regional components. Economic losses from North American, Asian, European, and Australian storms and floods contribute to 97% of the increase in global economic losses with each region\u27s increasing losses attributed to socioeconomic factors. The second study evaluates the National Flood Insurance Program and the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program with respect to their legislated mandates to reduce economic losses. I evaluate these policies by utilizing a new metric which compares the trend in actual losses exhibited after the enactment of policy, to a projected trend based on losses from the pre-policy era. The trends in actual losses are either increasing at the same rate or a slightly larger rate as the projections from the period prior to the enactment of policy. This suggests there is no discernible evidence that the policies have an impact on reducing losses. The third study compares the degree to which U.S. federal funding levels for natural disaster research and development (R\u26D) correspond with the level of documented impact from individual disaster types. Storms cause the greatest human and economic losses in the U.S. however earthquake R\u26D receives the largest federal funding allocation with storm R\u26D receiving the second highest level of funding of all disaster types. This suggests there is some correspondence although not complete correspondence between federal funding levels and level of impact from individual disaster types

Future vision of globally harmonized national airspace system with concepts of operations beyond year 2020

laid out in the National Airspace Systems (NAS) Operational Evolution Plan (EOP), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the aviation community are planning to make significant investment in NAS improvements over the next ten years. These enhancements involve implementation of communication, navigation and surveillance (CNS) technologies, and automation of ground systems in order to improve efficiency, safety, capacity and security. However, the mode of operations during this time frame is expected to continue as it is today. A number of research efforts are underway to consider significant changes to NAS operations beyond the OEP. This paper presents a vision of year 2020 and beyond based on a number of new paradigms that provides a globally harmonized service to conventional aircraft, uninhabited and space-launch vehicles. The key paradigms are: 1) a multi-faceted airport structure of well connected hubs, spoke, satellite and smaller airports; 2) multi-level CNS architecture for seamless and secured operations; 3) problem-free flight planning independent of look ahead times; 4) flexible sector boundaries based on equitable workload; and 5) a universal information service assuring uniformity and security of real time information to all stakeholders and service provider decision support systems (DSS). Potential make up of future air traffic is discussed including a significant number of non-scheduled flights such as on-demand service, charter, ravel club, fractional and short-haul intra-city operations. A concept of system wide information management (SWIM) that provides a virtual electronic collaboration space is described. The operational concepts fully support self-delivery and self-separation for appropriately equipped aircraft. New roles for service providers at national, regional and local air traffi