The biennial cycle of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks in Croatia

The paper analyses the epidemic pattern of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) outbreaks in children in Croatia. Over a period of 11 consecutive winter seasons (1994–2005) 3,435 inpatients from Zagreb County aged from infancy to 10 years who were hospitalised with acute respiratory tract infections were tested for RSV-infection. RSV was identified in nasopharyngeal secretions of patients by virus isolation in cell culture and by detection of viral antigen with monoclonal antibodies

IgG Avidity: an Important Serologic Marker for the Diagnosis of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus Infection

A total of 52 serum samples from patients with symptoms suggestive of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) infection and positive IgM and/or IgG antibodies were tested for IgG avidity. Acute/recent TBEV infection was confirmed by low/borderline avidity index (AI) in 94.8% IgM positive/IgG positive samples, while in 5.2% high AI was found indicating persisting IgM antibodies. Majority of IgM negative/IgG positive samples (78.6%) showed high AI consistent with past TBEV infection. However, in 21.3% patients without measurable IgM antibodies current/recent infection was confirmed by AI. IgG avidity represents an additional serologic marker that improves diagnosis of TBEV, especially in cases of atypical antibody response

Does the viral subtype influence the biennial cycle of respiratory syncytial virus?

BACKGROUND ----- The epidemic pattern of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is quite different in regions of Europe (biennial epidemics in alternating cycles of approximately 9 and 15 months) than in the Western Hemisphere (annual epidemics). In order to determine if these differences are accounted for by the circulation of different RSV subtypes, we studied the prevalence of RSV subtype A and B strains in Zagreb County from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2007. RESULTS ----- RSV was identified in the nasopharyngeal secretions of 368 inpatients using direct fluorescence assays and/or by virus isolation in cell culture. The subtype of recovered strains was determined by real-time PCR. Of 368 RSV infections identified in children during this interval, subtype A virus caused 94 infections, and subtype B 270. Four patients had a dual RSV infection (subtypes A and B). The period of study was characterized by two epidemic waves of RSV infections-one, smaller, in the spring of 2006 (peaking in March), the second, larger, in December 2006/January 2007 (peaking in January). The predominant subtype in both outbreaks was RSV subtype B. Not until November 2007 did RSV subtype A predominate, while initiating a new outbreak continuing into the following calendar year. CONCLUSION ----- Though only two calendar years were monitored, we believe that the biennial RSV cycle in Croatia occurs independently of the dominant viral subtype

Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), a major cause of bronchiolitis, has a large impact on the census of pediatric hospitals during outbreak seasons. Reliable prediction of the week these outbreaks will start, based on readily available data, could help pediatric hospitals better prepare for large outbreaks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models were constructed using weather data from 1985-2008 considering only variables that are available in real time and that could be used to forecast the week in which an RSV outbreak will occur in Salt Lake County, Utah. Outbreak start dates were determined by a panel of experts using 32,509 records with ICD-9 coded RSV and bronchiolitis diagnoses from Intermountain Healthcare hospitals and clinics for the RSV seasons from 1985 to 2008.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>NB models predicted RSV outbreaks up to 3 weeks in advance with an estimated sensitivity of up to 67% and estimated specificities as high as 94% to 100%. Temperature and wind speed were the best overall predictors, but other weather variables also showed relevance depending on how far in advance the predictions were made. The weather conditions predictive of an RSV outbreak in our study were similar to those that lead to temperature inversions in the Salt Lake Valley.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We demonstrate that Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models based on weather data available in real time have the potential to be used as effective predictive models. These models may be able to predict the week that an RSV outbreak will occur with clinical relevance. Their clinical usefulness will be field tested during the next five years.</p

Prevalence of Coxiella burnetii antibodies among febrile patients in Croatia, 2008-2010

Despite the widespread distribution of Q fever, the prevalence in humans is not accurately known, because many infected people seroconvert without symptoms or with a mild febrile disease. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of Q fever in different regions of Croatia. During a 2-year period (2008-2010), serum samples from 552 febrile patients with prolonged cough aged 1-88 were tested for the presence of Coxiella burnetii antibodies by using indirect immunofluorescent assay. Sera from 27.5% patients showed IgG antibodies. Serological evidence of C. burnetii infection was found in patients from all parts of Croatia. Seroprevalence rates significantly differed among regions from 21.5% to 41.2% (p=0.001). Men were more often seropositive (31.6%) than women (22.2%; p=0.016). According to age, a progressive increase in the IgG seropositivity rates was observed as ranging from 6.7% in children less than 10 years of age to 39.2% in patients aged 40-49 (p=0.001). Above the age of 50, the IgG seroprevalence remained stable. Patients from rural areas were more often seropositive than patients from urban areas (40.8% vs. 19%), p<0.001). Acute Q fever was confirmed in 5.8% of patients. Cases occurred throughout the year. A majority of cases were reported during summer months