How Models Fail. A Critical Look at the History of Computer Simulations of the Evolution of Cooperation

Simulation models of the Reiterated Prisoner's Dilemma have been popular for studying the evolution of cooperation since more than 30 years now. However, there have been practically no successful instances of empirical application of any of these models. At the same time this lack of empirical testing and confirmation has almost entirely been ignored by the modelers community. In this paper, I examine some of the typical narratives and standard arguments with which these models are justified by their authors despite the lack of empirical validation. I find that most of the narratives and arguments are not at all compelling. None the less they seem to serve an important function in keeping the simulation business running despite its empirical shortcomings

Determinants of the Growth Semi-Elasticity of Poverty Reduction

In this paper we examine the mathematical relationship between growth and distributional change on absolute (i.e. percentage point) changes in FGT poverty measures assuming a log-normal income distribution, which we argue to be a conceptually superior and more policy-relevant measure than the much used ’regular’ growth elasticity of poverty reduction. We also test the empirical relationship of these semi-elasticities of growth and distributional change on poverty and find them to explain actual changes in poverty very well (in fact, much better than a related study by Bourguignon (2003) that studied the growth elasticity of poverty reduction). This is particularly the case when poverty depth and severity is considered. Using our results helps in interpreting past performance in poverty reduction and will allow a rapid and quite reliable prediction of the impact of growth and distributional change on (absolute) poverty reduction across countries, taking heterogeneity in country circumstances into account.Poverty reduction, growth elasticity, growth semi-elasticity, income distribution

Determinants of the Growth Semi-Elasticity of Poverty Reduction

In this paper we examine the mathematical relationship between growth and distributional change on absolute (i.e. percentage point) changes in FGT poverty measures assuming a log-normal distribution. We also test the empirical relationship of the derived semi-elasticities of growth and distributional change on poverty and find them to explain changes in poverty very well (in fact, better than a related study by Bourguignon (2003) that studied the 'regular' growth elasticity of poverty reduction). This relationship will allow us to predict where growth and distributional change will have the largest (absolute) impact on poverty reduction, which is very useful for predicting and analyzing progress towards meeting MDG1.

A Multilevel Approach to Explain Child Mortality and Undernutrition in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

While undernutrition among children is very pervasive both in Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia, child mortality is rather low in South Asia. In contrast to that Sub-Saharan African countries suer by far the worst from high rates of child mortality. This dierent pattern of child mortality and undernutrition in both regions is well known, but approaches using aggregated macro data have not been able to explain it appropriately. In this paper we analyze the determinants of child mortality as well as child undernutrition based on DHS data sets for a sample of ve developing countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigate the eects of individual, household and cluster socioeconomic characteristics using a multilevel model approach and examine their respective inuences on both phenomena. We nd that the determinants of child mortality and undernutrition dier signi cantly from each other. Access to health infrastructure is more important for child mortality, whereas the individual characteristics like wealth and educational and nutritional characteristics of mothers play a larger role for anthropometric shortfalls. Although very similar patterns in the determinants of each phenomenon are discernable between countries, there are large dierences in the magnitude of the coecients. Besides regressions using a combined data set of all six countries show, that there are still signicant dierences between the two regions although taking account of a large set of covariates.Child mortality, child undernutrition, multilevel modelling

A Multilevel Approach to Explain Child Mortality and Undernutrition in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

While undernutrition among children is very pervasive both in Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia, child mortality is rather low in South Asia. In contrast to that Sub-Saharan African countries suffer by far the worst from high rates of child mortality. This different pattern of child mortality and undernutrition in both regions is well known, but approaches using aggregated macro data have not been able to explain it appropriately. In this paper we analyze the determinants of child mortality as well as child undernutrition based on DHS data sets for a sample of six developing countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigate the effects of individual, household and cluster socioeconomic characteristics using a multilevel model approach and examine their respective influences on both phenomena. We find that the determinants of child mortality and undernutrition differ significantly from each other. Access to health infrastructure is more important for child mortality, whereas the individual characteristics like wealth and educational and nutritional characteristics of mothers play a larger role for anthropometric shortfalls. Although very similar patterns in the determinants of each phenomenon are discernable, there are large differences in the magnitude of the coefficients. Besides regressions using a combined data set of all six countries show, that there are still significant differences between the two regions although taking account of a large set of covariates.Child mortality,child undernutrition,multilevel modelling

Undernutrition and the Nutrition Transition: Revising the undernutrition aspect of MDG I

Since the publication of the new multi-country reference standard by WHO it is likely that future progress in the fight against undernutrition will be tracked by using this new standard. The use of the new reference standard will result in clear changes in the prevalence and composition of undernutrition. This paper argues that this opportunity should be used to use stunting or a Composite Index of Anthropometric Failure instead of underweight as the indicator to measure progress in the fight against hunger. All weight based anthropometric measures, such as underweight and wasting, suffer from the fact that due to changes in the nutritional composition of diets in developing countries there is going to be a secular reduction in those measures that does not coincide with real improvements in the health of the affected children. This bias could lead to wrong conclusions concerning the fulfillment of the undernutrition aspect of MDG I

Empathy and Dyspathy with Androids: Philosophical, Fictional, and (Neuro)Psychological Perspectives

The fact that we develop feelings towards androids, i.e., objects with a humanlike appearance, has fascinated people since ancient times. However, as a short survey of the topic in history, science fiction literature and film shows, our emotional reactions towards them are ambivalent. On the one hand, we can develop feelings of empathy almost as we do with real human beings; on the other hand, we feel repulsion or dyspathy when those creatures show a very high degree of human likeness. Recently, Japanese roboticist Masahiro Mori coined the term “uncanny valley” to refer to this effect. The aim of this essay is, first, to give an explanation as to why we feel empathy towards androids although we know that they do not have feelings themselves. This presupposes a perception-based concept of empathy which is going to be developed on the basis of some of Theodor Lipps’ ideas. The second question to be answered is why empathy with androids turns into dyspathy when they become very humanlike. As I will argue, this is due to a particular kind of interference between perception and the imagination when confronted with very humanlike objects. This makes androids quite special objects right at the divide between humans and non-humans. They are non-human, but we feel ill at ease when treating them as mere objects

A Softwaremodule for an Ethical Elder Care Robot. Design and Implementation

The development of increasingly intelligent and autonomous technologies will eventually lead to these systems having to face morally problematic situations. This is particularly true of artificial systems that are used in geriatric care environments. The goal of this article is to describe how one can approach the design of an elder care robot which is capable of moral decision-making and moral learning. A conceptual design for the development of such a system is provided and the steps that are necessary to implement it are described

Education for All? Measuring Pro-Poor Educational Outcomes in Developing Countries

Achieving progress in education is of fundamental importance for human development. Low levels of access to the education system and in educational outcomes in developing countries are often accompanied by high inequality between countries and within countries between population subgroups. This paper analyzes differences in improvements in the access to the education system and in educational outcomes across the welfare distribution between and within countries, and also by gender and regions for a sample of 37 developing countries using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). For the analysis, the toolbox of the growth incidence curves is applied to several educational indicators. We found an overall positive development in education. However, we do not identify a clear pro-poor trend in progress in education between and within countries. We do find strong differences in education between males and females and between rural and urban areas. While gender inequality tends to decrease slightly, large differences by region tend to persist over time. --Pro-Poor Growth,Education,Growth Incidence Curve

Automated monitoring of recovered water quality

Laboratory prototype water quality monitoring system provides automatic system for online monitoring of chemical, physical, and bacteriological properties of recovered water and for signaling malfunction in water recovery system. Monitor incorporates whenever possible commercially available sensors suitably modified