Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model

A regional forecasting system based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being run at the CEAM Foundation. The model is started twice daily with a forecast range of 72 h. For the period June 2007 to August 2010 the verification of the model has been done using a series of automatic meteorological stations from the CEAM network and located within the Valencia Region (Western Mediterranean Basin). Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and direction of the output of the model have been compared with observations. For these variables, an operational verification has been performed by computing different statistical scores for 18 weather stations. This verification process has been carried out for each season of the year separately. As a result, it has been revealed that the model presents significant differences in the forecast of the meteorological variables analysed throughout the year. Moreover, due to the physical complexity of the area of study, the model presents different degree of accuracy between coastal and inland stations. Precipitation has also been verified by means of yes/no contingency tables as well as scatter plots. These tables have been built using 4 specific thresholds that have permitted to compute some categorical statistics. From the results found, it is shown that the precipitation forecast in the area of study is in general over-predicted, but with marked differences between the seasons of the year. Finally, dividing the available data by season of the year, has permitted us to analyze differences in the observed patterns for the magnitudes mentioned above. These results have been used to better understand the behavior of the RAMS model within the Valencia Region

Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region

Extreme-temperature events have a great impact on human society. Thus, knowledge of summer temperatures can be very useful both for the general public and for organizations whose workers operate in the open. An accurate forecasting of summer maximum and minimum temperatures could help to predict heatwave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The objective of this work is to evaluate the skill of the regional atmospheric and modelling system (RAMS) model in determining daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Mediterráneo Foundation. This operational system is run twice a day, and both runs have a 3-day forecast range. To carry out the verification of the model in this work, the information generated by the system has been broken into individual simulation days for a specific daily run of the model. Moreover, we have analysed the summer forecast period from 1 June to 31 August for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The results indicate good agreement between observed and simulated maximum temperatures, with RMSE in general near 2 °C both for coastal and inland stations. For this parameter, the model shows a negative bias around −1.5 °C in the coast, while the opposite trend is observed inland. In addition, RAMS also shows good results in forecasting minimum temperatures for coastal locations, with bias lower than 1 °C and RMSE below 2 °C. However, the model presents some difficulties for this parameter inland, where bias higher than 3 °C and RMSE of about 4 °C have been found. Besides, there is little difference in both temperatures forecasted within the two daily RAMS cycles and that RAMS is very stable in maintaining the forecast performance at least for three forecast days

P1 337. Reparación valvular mitral: experiencia en nuestro centro

ObjetivoEl gold standard en el tratamiento de la insuficiencia mitral es la reparación valvular mitral siempre que ésta sea posible. Nuestro objetivo es exponer la experiencia en nuestro centro.Material y métodosDesde mayo de 2006 hasta la fecha actual hemos realizado 135 reparaciones mitrales. La edad media de los pacientes es de 62,87 años (22–84 años), siendo 68 varones (64,15%). En la distribución por etiologías destaca la degenerativa (68,3%). Realizamos 24,8% plastias mitrales complejas. El seguimiento de los volúmenes ventriculares se ha realizado preoperatoriamente mediante ecocardiografía y cardiorresonancia magnética.ResultadosLa mortalidad hospitalaria fue de 3 casos (2,8%). Los exitus fueron en pacientes con cirugía concomitante, siendo las causas de origen no cardíaco en dos de ellos. La reducción media de los volúmenes ventriculares telediastólicos y telesistólicos fue de 9,7mm (terapia de destino [DT] 14mm) y de 5,59mm (DT 12mm), respectivamente, con una significación estadística de p<0,05. La reducción del volumen ventricular fue significativamente superior cuando el volumen telesistólico del ventrículo izquierdo (VTSVI) es inferior a 45mm. Con un seguimiento medio de 32 meses (1–70 meses) la supervivencia libre de reintervención es del 91±7,5%. La supervivencia global a 1 y 4 años es del 94,4±3% y 90,1±5,1%.ConclusionesGracias a la curva de aprendizaje no solo realizamos reparación valvular sencilla sino que hemos aumentado los casos de reparación valvular compleja, obteniendo excelentes resultados con mínima morbimortalidad. La mayor reducción de volúmenes ventriculares, cuando éstos son menores preoperatoriamente, indican que la cirugía debe ser precoz