Discussion of "Is Bayes Posterior just Quick and Dirty Confidence?" by D. A. S. Fraser

Discussion of "Is Bayes Posterior just Quick and Dirty Confidence?" by D. A. S. Fraser [arXiv:1112.5582].Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-STS352B the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Confidence distribution (CD) -- distribution estimator of a parameter

The notion of confidence distribution (CD), an entirely frequentist concept, is in essence a Neymanian interpretation of Fisher's Fiducial distribution. It contains information related to every kind of frequentist inference. In this article, a CD is viewed as a distribution estimator of a parameter. This leads naturally to consideration of the information contained in CD, comparison of CDs and optimal CDs, and connection of the CD concept to the (profile) likelihood function. A formal development of a multiparameter CD is also presented.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921707000000102 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Combining information from independent sources through confidence distributions

This paper develops new methodology, together with related theories, for combining information from independent studies through confidence distributions. A formal definition of a confidence distribution and its asymptotic counterpart (i.e., asymptotic confidence distribution) are given and illustrated in the context of combining information. Two general combination methods are developed: the first along the lines of combining p-values, with some notable differences in regard to optimality of Bahadur type efficiency; the second by multiplying and normalizing confidence densities. The latter approach is inspired by the common approach of multiplying likelihood functions for combining parametric information. The paper also develops adaptive combining methods, with supporting asymptotic theory which should be of practical interest. The key point of the adaptive development is that the methods attempt to combine only the correct information, downweighting or excluding studies containing little or wrong information about the true parameter of interest. The combination methodologies are illustrated in simulated and real data examples with a variety of applications.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053604000001084 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Hvorfor var boligkrakket fra august 2007 til desember 2008 av begrenset omfang i Norge? : en empirisk analyse av det norske boligmarkedet, sett i et internasjonalt og historisk perspektiv

The main purpose of this master thesis is to investigate the current Norwegian housing market in an international and historical perspective. In particular we investigate the housing market crash that occurred in the Norwegian housing market during the period August 2007 to December 2008, and attempt to uncover important factors that explain why the housing market crash was of so little extent. In addition, we examine whether there is a housing bubble in the Norwegian housing market today. The most important factors that explain why the housing market crash was of so little extent in Norway are: * The financial crisis was not as deep and long lasting as many feared. The use of financial rescue packages had an instant positive impact. * Interest rate reductions combined with a low share of fixed-rate loans. * Norwegian banks’ relatively strict lending policy. * The tax subsidy attached to the purchase of houses. * High general standard of living. * Norwegian households’ positive future expectations (especially related to future wage inflation). In the analysis we find that various factors suggest there is a housing bubble in the Norwegian housing market today. Both developments in real house prices and estimated P/R coefficients support this suggestion. But we cannot find any significant evidence to suggest an imminent bubble crack

Developing and validating an English version of the meCUE questionnaire for measuring user experience

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.Based on the Component model of User Experience (CUE), a standardized questionnaire (meCUE) was developed measuring key aspects of user experience (UX) for interactive products. The questionnaire consists of 34 items and covers four components: product perceptions (usefulness, usability, visual aesthetics, status, commitment), user emotions (positive, negative), consequences of usage (intention to use, product loyalty), and overall judgment. The modules were separately validated in a series of studies. Therefore, meCUE can be easily adapted to specific research goals by simply choosing those modules which are required. The original German questionnaire was translated into an English version that was validated in an online study. Fifty-eight native English speakers assessed a wide variety of interactive products, such as cell phones, digital cameras, PCs, laptops, tablets, software and mobile applications. Results show that the English version reliably assesses the key components of UX and that the internal consistency of its scales is high.DFG, GRK 1013, Prospektive Gestaltung von Mensch-Technik-Interaktion (prometei

Attendance and Chronic Absenteeism in Indiana: The Impact on Student Achievement

Student attendance serves as an effective predictor of future academic achievement as well as of high school graduation. An analysis of Indiana attendance data indicates a direct link between absenteeism and school achievement, with chronically absent students scoring lower on achievement tests and dropping out of high school at higher rates than peers with better attendance. This Education Policy Brief summarizes the research and data analysis completed by CEEP on Indiana's student attendance and absenteeism data. The study was initiated by The Indiana Partnerships Center and conducted by CEEP with funding from USA Funds and State Farm. Additional partners in the study are the Marion County Commission on Youth, Net Literacy, and Attendance Works. The intended use of the study is to inform educators, families, community partners, and policymakers about the status of attendance in Indiana and the degree to which poor attendance impacts student achievement and attainment. Findings indicate that although the majority of schools report good average daily attendance, chronic absenteeism occurs in schools in all areas of Indiana. This brief quantifies the prevalence of chronic absenteeism in Indiana and describes the impact of chronic absenteeism on achievement and graduation at the student, school, and locality level. Additionally, best practices for improving attendance are discussed, and examples of successful interventions provided. This brief concludes with a set of recommendations for education leaders and policymakers to consider that will ensure sufficient attention, reporting, and action to reduce chronic absenteeism in Indiana and help improve academic outcomes for thousands of Hoosier students

Molecular characterization of KU70 and KU80 homologues and exploitation of a KU70-deficient mutant for improving gene deletion frequency in Rhodosporidium toruloides

10.1186/1471-2180-14-50BMC Microbiology141

The experimental gas-phase structures of 1,3,5-trisilylbenzene and hexasilylbenzene and the theoretical structures of all benzenes with three or more silyl substituents

The structures of 1,3,5-trisilylbenzene and hexasilylbenzene in the gas phase have been determined by electron diffraction, and that of 1,3,5-trisilylbenzene by X-ray crystallography. The structures of three trisilylbenzene isomers, three tetrasilylbenzenes, pentasilylbenzene and hexasilylbenzene have been computed, ab initio and using Density Functional Theory, at levels up to MP2/6-31G*. The primary effect of silyl substituents is to narrow the ring angle at the substituted carbon atoms. Steric interactions between silyl groups on neighbouring carbon atoms lead first to displacement of these groups away from one another, and then to displacement out of the ring plane, with alternate groups moving to opposite sides of the ring. In the extreme example, hexasilylbenzene, the SiCCSi dihedral angle is 17.8(8)°