Detecting abundance trends under uncertainty: the influence of budget, observation error and environmental change

ArticleCopyright © 2014 The Authors. Animal Conservation published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Zoological Society of London.Population monitoring must robustly detect trends over time in a cost-effective manner. However, several underlying ecological changes driving population trends may interact differently with observation uncertainty to produce abundance trends that are more or less detectable for a given budget and over a given time period. Errors in detecting these trends include failing to detect declines when they exist (type II), detecting them when they do not exist (type I), detecting trends in one direction when they are actually in another direction (type III) and incorrectly estimating the shape of the trend. Robust monitoring should be able to avoid each of these error types. Using monitoring of two contrasting ungulate species and multiple scenarios of population change (poaching, climate change and road development) in the Serengeti ecosystem as a case study, we used a ‘virtual ecologist’ approach to investigate monitoring effectiveness under uncertainty. We explored how the prevalence of different types of error varies depending on budgetary, observational and environmental conditions. Higher observation error and conducting surveys less frequently increased the likelihood of not detecting trends and misclassifying the shape of the trend. As monitoring period and frequency increased, observation uncertainty was more important in explaining effectiveness. Types I and III errors had low prevalence for both ungulate species. Greater investment in monitoring considerably decreased the likelihood of failing to detect significant trends (type II errors). Our results suggest that it is important to understand the effects of monitoring conditions on perceived trends before making inferences about underlying processes. The impacts of specific threats on population abundance and structure feed through into monitoring effectiveness; hence, monitoring programmes must be designed with the underlying processes to be detected in mind. Here we provide an integrated modelling framework that can produce advice on robust monitoring strategies under uncertainty.Portuguese Foundation for Science and TechnologyEuropean Commissio

Causality and replication in concurrent processes

The replication operator was introduced by Milner for obtaining a simplified description of recursive processes. The standard interleaving semantics denotes the replication of a process P, written !P, a shorthand for its unbound parallel composition, operationally equivalent to the process P | P | …, with P repeated as many times as needed. Albeit the replication mechanism has become increasingly popular, investigations on its causal semantics has been scarce. In fact, the correspondence between replication and unbound parallelism makes it difficult to recover basic properties usually associated with these semantics, such as the so-called concurrency diamond. In this paper we consider the interleaving semantics for the operator proposed by Sangiorgi and Walker, and we show how to refine it in order to capture causality. Furthermore, we prove it coincident with the standard causal semantics for recursive process studied in the literature, for processes defined by means of constant invocations

A Mesolithic settlement site at Howick, Northumberland: a preliminary report

Excavations at a coastal site at Howick during 2000 and 2002 have revealed evidence for a substantial Mesolithic settlement and a Bronze Age cist cemetery. Twenty one radiocarbon determinations of the earlier eighth millennium BP (Cal.) indicate that the Mesolithic site is one of the earliest known in northern Britain. An 8m core of sediment was recovered from stream deposits adjacent to the archaeological site which provides information on local environmental conditions. Howick offers a unique opportunity to understand aspects of hunter-gatherer colonisation and settlement during a period of rapid palaeogeographical change around the margins of the North Sea basin, at a time when it was being progressively inundated by the final stages of the postglacial marine transgression. The cist cemetery will add to the picture of Bronze Age occupation of the coastal strip and again reveals a correlation between the location of Bronze Age and Mesolithic sites which has been observed elsewhere in the region

Spatial organisation within the earliest evidence of post-built structures in Britain

Copyright: \ua9 2024 Bates et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This paper explores tool-using activities undertaken in and around the earliest known evidence of post-built structures in Britain. Microwear results associated with at least three structures identified at the Early Mesolithic site of Star Carr, North Yorkshire, are examined as a means of identifying activity zones associated with the diverse stone tools used to process a variety of materials (e.g. wood, bone, antler, plant, hide, meat, fish). With 341 lithic artefacts analysed, this research represents the first microwear study focused on the post-built structures at Star Carr. A combination of spatial and microwear data has provided different scales of interpretation: from individual tool use to patterns of activity across the three structures. Different types of tool use observed have aided interpretations of possible activity areas where objects were produced and materials were processed. Zones of activity within one of the structures suggest that the working of some materials was more spatially restricted than others; even where there are high densities of flint deposition, spatial patterns in tool-using activity were observed. From this, it is interpreted that social norms and behaviours influenced the spatial organisation of different spaces. Our results demonstrate the importance of combining microwear analysis with GIS to explore function and variability in the use of Mesolithic structures-providing new insights into their role as social spaces

Static Trace-Based Deadlock Analysis for Synchronous Mini-Go

We consider the problem of static deadlock detection for programs in the Go programming language which make use of synchronous channel communications. In our analysis, regular expressions extended with a fork operator capture the communication behavior of a program. Starting from a simple criterion that characterizes traces of deadlock-free programs, we develop automata-based methods to check for deadlock-freedom. The approach is implemented and evaluated with a series of examples

Radiative corrections for (e,e′p) reactions at GeV energies

A general framework for applying radiative corrections to (e,e′p) coincidence reactions at GeV energies is presented, with special emphasis to higher-order bremsstrahlung effects, radiation from the scattered hadron, and the validity of peaking approximations. The sensitivity to the assumptions made in practically applying radiative corrections to (e,e′p) data is extensively discussed. The general framework is tested against experimental data of the 1H(e,e′p) reaction at momentum transfer values larger than 1.0 (GeV/c)^2, where radiative processes become a dominant source of uncertainty. The formulas presented here can easily be modified for any other electron-induced coincidence reaction

Sigref – A Symbolic Bisimulation Tool Box

We present a uniform signature-based approach to compute the most popular bisimulations. Our approach is implemented symbolically using BDDs, which enables the handling of very large transition systems. Signatures for the bisimulations are built up from a few generic building blocks, which naturally correspond to efficient BDD operations. Thus, the definition of an appropriate signature is the key for a rapid development of algorithms for other types of bisimulation. We provide experimental evidence of the viability of this approach by presenting computational results for many bisimulations on real-world instances. The experiments show cases where our framework can handle state spaces efficiently that are far too large to handle for any tool that requires an explicit state space description. This work was partly supported by the German Research Council (DFG) as part of the Transregional Collaborative Research Center “Automatic Verification and Analysis of Complex Systems” (SFB/TR 14 AVACS). See www.avacs.org for more information