Climate cost uncertainty, retrofit cost uncertainty, and infrastructure closedown : a framework for analysis

Large and energy-intensive infrastructure investments with long life times have substantial implications for climate policy. This study focuses on options to scale down energy consumption and carbon emissions now and in the future, and on the costs of doing so. Two ways carbon emissions can be reduced post-investment include retrofitting the infrastructure, or closing it down. Generally, the presence of bulky infrastructure investments makes it more costly to reduce emissions later. Moreover, when expected energy and environmental costs are continually rising, inherent biases in the selection processes for infrastructure investments lead to excessive energy intensity in such investments. Thus great care must be taken when choosing the energy intensity of the infrastructure at the time of investment. Simulations indicate that optimally exercising the retrofit option, when it is available, reduces ex ante expected energy consumption relative to the no-option case. Total energy plus retrofit costs can also be substantially reduced, the more so the larger is ex ante cost uncertainty. However, the availability of the retrofit option also leads to a more energy intensive initial infrastructure choice; this offsets some, but usually not all, of the gains from options for subsequent retrofitting.Energy Production and Transportation,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Environment and Energy Efficiency

Infrastructure investments under uncertainty with the possibility of retrofit : theory and simulations

Investments in large, long-lived, energy-intensive infrastructure investments using fossil fuels increase longer-term energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, unless the plant is shut down early or undergoes costly retrofit later. These investments will depend on expectations of retrofit costs and future energy costs, including energy cost increases from tighter controls on carbon emissions. Simulation analysis shows that the retrofit option can significantly reduce anticipated future energy consumption as of the time of initial investment, and total future energy plus retrofit costs. The more uncertain are the costs, the greater the value of this option. However, the future retrofit option also induces more energy-intensive infrastructure choices, partly offsetting the direct effect of having the option on anticipated energy use. Efficient, forward-looking infrastructure investments have high potential for reducing long-term energy consumption. Particularly if energy prices are expected to rise, however, the potential for reduced energy consumption will be eroded if expectations of energy prices do not include environmental costs or future retrofit possibilities and technologies are not adequately developed.Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment

THREE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ECONOMY

This dissertation explores three different relevant questions in political economy. Chapter 1 is devoted to understanding why populist-outsider candidates get elected, and what conditions may favor/hinder their electability. The results show that countries with a higher income and wealth concentration are more likely to elect populist outsiders than countries where income and wealth are more equally distributed. It is also shown that elections with a runoff also are less likely to bring these populist outsiders into office. Chapter 2 in turn explores the role of the middle class in moderating political outcome in a framework where money and votes play two distinctive roles in the election process. In this chapter, a three-class model of heterogeneous agents is developed in which groups affect policy outcomes through their voting behavior and contributions to political campaigns, and where income inequality can lead to extreme policy outcomes. Increasing the size of the middle class reduces the likelihood of extreme policy outcomes, as does a richer middle class. This result highlights the importance of a large and strong middle class for political stability. Finally Chapter 3 looks at the question of why inequality has remained persistently high in Chile despite its success in reducing poverty and achieving high growth for two decades while having a mostly pro-poor structure of public expenditures. We show that the key factors explaining this persistent inequality have been a low level of fiscal expenditures caused by low tax revenues that have not permitted enough public investment in human capital and R&D

Analytical Gradients for Projection-Based Wavefunction-in-DFT Embedding

Projection-based embedding provides a simple, robust, and accurate approach for describing a small part of a chemical system at the level of a correlated wavefunction method while the remainder of the system is described at the level of density functional theory. Here, we present the derivation, implementation, and numerical demonstration of analytical nuclear gradients for projection-based wavefunction-in-density functional theory (WF-in-DFT) embedding. The gradients are formulated in the Lagrangian framework to enforce orthogonality, localization, and Brillouin constraints on the molecular orbitals. An important aspect of the gradient theory is that WF contributions to the total WF-in-DFT gradient can be simply evaluated using existing WF gradient implementations without modification. Another simplifying aspect is that Kohn-Sham (KS) DFT contributions to the projection-based embedding gradient do not require knowledge of the WF calculation beyond the relaxed WF density. Projection-based WF-in-DFT embedding gradients are thus easily generalized to any combination of WF and KS-DFT methods. We provide numerical demonstration of the method for several applications, including calculation of a minimum energy pathway for a hydride transfer in a cobalt-based molecular catalyst using the nudged-elastic-band method at the CCSD-in-DFT level of theory, which reveals large differences from the transition state geometry predicted using DFT.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure

New valid inequalities and facets for the simple plant location problem

The Simple Plant Location Problem is a well-known (and NP-hard) combinatorial optimisation problem, with applications in logistics. We present a new family of valid inequalities for the associated family of polyhedra, and show that it contains an exponentially large number of new facet-defining members. We also present a new procedure, called facility augmentation, which enables one to derive even more valid and facet-defining inequalities

Attending to Eliza: Rapid brain responses reflect competence attribution in virtual social feedback processing

Schindler S, Miller GA, Kißler J. Attending to Eliza: Rapid brain responses reflect competence attribution in virtual social feedback processing. Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience. 2019;14(10):1073-1086.In the age of virtual communication, the source of a message is often inferred rather than perceived, raising the question of how sender attributions affect content processing. We investigated this issue in an evaluative feedback scenario. Participants were told that an expert psychotherapist, a layperson or a randomly acting computer was going to give them online positive, neutral or negative personality feedback while high-density EEG was recorded. Sender attribution affected processing rapidly, even though the feedback was on average identical. Event-related potentials revealed a linear increase with attributed expertise beginning 150 ms after disclosure and most pronounced for N1, P2 and early posterior negativity components. P3 and late positive potential amplitudes were increased for both human senders and for emotionally significant (positive or negative) feedback. Strikingly, feedback from a putative expert prompted large P3 responses, even for inherently neutral content. Source analysis localized early enhancements due to attributed sender expertise in frontal and somatosensory regions and later responses in the posterior cingulate and extended visual and parietal areas, supporting involvement of mentalizing, embodied processing and socially motivated attention. These findings reveal how attributed sender expertise rapidly alters feedback processing in virtual interaction and have implications for virtual therapy and online communication.how attributed sender expertise rapidly alters feedback processing in virtual interaction and have implications for virtual therapy and on-line communication.</jats:p

On the Developer Adoption of Scrum: A New Acceptance Model for Agile Methodologies

In recent years, the agile Scrum methodology has become a popular software development approach. It significantly differs from traditional approaches as it promotes communication, self-organization, flexibility, and innovation instead of extensive planning and codified processes. While such a paradigm shift promises to better support the timely delivery of high-quality software in turbulent business environments, its success considerably depends on the willingness of developers to adopt the agile methodology. In this paper, we present a framework with drivers and inhibitors to the developer acceptance of Scrum. It combines analytical with empirical findings and can be used as a theoretical basis to empirically evaluate the actual support of Scrum in concrete scenarios. The introduced framework is based on the extended Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), which has been proven to be also applicable to describe the intention of developers to use a methodology. Building upon results from qualitative in-depth interviews with six experienced Scrum experts of a German DAX-30 company, we refine the general determinants of adoption contained in the TAM with several observed factors that influence the willingness of developers to use Scrum in practice

A survey of thickened fluid prescribing and monitoring practices of Australian health professionals.

"This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: [Murray, J., Miller, M., Doeltgen, S. & Scholten, I. (2014). A survey of thickened fluid prescribing and monitoring practices of Australian health professionals. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 20(5), 596-600.], which has been published in final form at [http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jep.12154]. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving. http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-820227.html#terms"RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to describe (1) how thickened fluids are supplied to clients with dysphagia; (2) how clients' consumption of thickened fluids and hydration status is monitored; and (3) the impact of institutional factors on thickened fluid intake and hydration in Australian health care settings. METHODS: Speech pathologists, dietitians and nurses working in Australian health care settings were asked to voluntarily participate in an online survey that was advertised through their respective professional associations. The questions required a self-report of their practice with respect to thickened fluids. RESULTS: Few health care facilities (17%) monitored thickened fluid consumption routinely even though, in the opinion of 51% the respondents, clients on thickened fluids at their facility do not drink enough. Palatability of the thickened fluid products and patients' dependence on others for drinking were thought to have a major impact on fluid intake. Respondents also highlighted institutional factors such as inadequate assistance from staff and inconsistent systems for monitoring fluid intake and signs of dehydration. The most common way to address inadequate intake was for nurses to 'push fluids' (87%). Free water protocols were used only 14% of the time and setting small oral fluid targets throughout the day was the least common strategy (11%). CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for Australian health care facilities to educate all clinical staff about the risks of dehydration and develop clinical pathways for clients with dysphagia, which include routine monitoring of oral fluid consumption and dehydration and timely intervention

Does a Water Protocol Improve the Hydration and Health Status of Individuals with Thin Liquid Aspiration Following Stroke? A Randomized Controlled Trial

Author accepted manuscript made available following 12 month embargo from date of publication (17 Feb 2016) in accordance with publisher copyright policy. “The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00455-016-9694-x”.The benefit of water protocols for individuals with thin liquid aspiration remains controversial, with mixed findings from a small number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). This study aimed to contribute to the evidence of the effectiveness of water protocols with a particular emphasis on health outcomes, especially hydration. An RCT was conducted with patients with known thin liquid aspiration post stroke randomized to receiving thickened liquids only or a water protocol. For the 14 participants in rehabilitation facilities whose data proceeded to analysis, there was no difference in the total amount of beverages consumed between the water protocol group (mean = 1103 ml per day, SD = 215 ml) and the thickened liquids only group (mean = 1103 ml, SD = 247 ml). Participants in the water protocol group drank on average 299 ml (SD 274) of water but offset this by drinking less of the thickened liquids. Their hydration improved over time compared with participants in the thickened liquids only group, but differences between groups were not significant. Twenty-one percent of the total sample was diagnosed with dehydration, and no participants in either group were diagnosed with pneumonia. There were significantly more diagnoses of urinary tract infection in the thickened liquids only group compared to the water protocol group (χ 2 = 5.091, p = 0.024), but no differences between groups with regard to diagnoses of dehydration (χ 2 = 0.884, p = 0.347) or constipation (χ 2 = 0.117, p = 0.733). The findings reinforce evidence about the relative safety of water protocols for patients in rehabilitation post stroke and provide impetus for future research into the potential benefits for hydration status and minimizing adverse health outcomes