Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland

The rapid increase in energy demand in the city of Reykjavik has posed the need for an additional supply of deep geothermal energy. The deep-hydraulic (re-)stimulation of well RV-43 on the peninsula of Geldinganes (north of Reykjavik) is an essential component of the plan implemented by Reykjavik Energy to meet this energy target. Hydraulic stimulation is often associated with fluid-induced seismicity, most of which is not felt on the surface but which, in rare cases, can be a nuisance to the population and even damage the nearby building stock. This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic hazard and risk analysis for the site of interest. Specifically, we provide probabilistic estimates of peak ground acceleration, European microseismicity intensity, probability of light damage (damage risk), and individual risk. The results of the risk assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below 0.1 micromorts, and damage risk is below 10−2, for the total duration of the project. However, these results are affected by several orders of magnitude of variability due to the deep uncertainties present at all levels of the analysis, indicating a critical need in updating this risk assessment with in situ data collected during the stimulation. Therefore, it is important to stress that this a priori study represents a baseline model and starting point to be updated and refined after the start of the project

Cyclical geothermal unrest as a precursor to Iceland’s 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption

Understanding and constraining the source of geodetic deformation in volcanic areas is an important component of hazard assessment. Here, we analyse deformation and seismicity for one year before the March 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland. We generate a high-resolution catalogue of 39,500 earthquakes using optical cable recordings and develop a poroelastic model to describe three pre-eruptional uplift and subsidence cycles at the Svartsengi geothermal field, 8 km west of the eruption site. We find the observed deformation is best explained by cyclic intrusions into a permeable aquifer by a fluid injected at 4 km depth below the geothermal field, with a total volume of 0.11 ± 0.05 km3 and a density of 850 ± 350 kg m–3. We therefore suggest that ingression of magmatic CO2 can explain the geodetic, gravity and seismic data, although some contribution of magma cannot be excluded

GFZ Wireless Seismic Array (GFZ-WISE), a Wireless Mesh Network of Seismic Sensors: New Perspectives for Seismic Noise Array Investigations and Site Monitoring

Over the last few years, the analysis of seismic noise recorded by two dimensional arrays has been confirmed to be capable of deriving the subsoil shear-wave velocity structure down to several hundred meters depth. In fact, using just a few minutes of seismic noise recordings and combining this with the well known horizontal-to-vertical method, it has also been shown that it is possible to investigate the average one dimensional velocity structure below an array of stations in urban areas with a sufficient resolution to depths that would be prohibitive with active source array surveys, while in addition reducing the number of boreholes required to be drilled for site-effect analysis. However, the high cost of standard seismological instrumentation limits the number of sensors generally available for two-dimensional array measurements (i.e., of the order of 10), limiting the resolution in the estimated shear-wave velocity profiles. Therefore, new themes in site-effect estimation research by two-dimensional arrays involve the development and application of low-cost instrumentation, which potentially allows the performance of dense-array measurements, and the development of dedicated signal-analysis procedures for rapid and robust estimation of shear-wave velocity profiles. In this work, we present novel low-cost wireless instrumentation for dense two-dimensional ambient seismic noise array measurements that allows the real–time analysis of the surface-wavefield and the rapid estimation of the local shear-wave velocity structure for site response studies. We first introduce the general philosophy of the new system, as well as the hardware and software that forms the novel instrument, which we have tested in laboratory and field studies

Characterization of Hydraulic Fractures Growth During the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory Experiment (Sweden)

ISSN:1434-453XISSN:0723-263

Spatio-temporal variability of seismic noise above a geothermal reservoir

We report on the application of seismic noise investigations, including H/V (horizontal to vertical) spectral ratio and array techniques, to a shallow gas-rich geothermal reservoir in Heybeli, southwestern Turkey. Fundamental resonant frequencies were determined to estimate the sediment thickness. Using small-scale seismic arrays, phase velocity dispersion curves were derived by correlating noise recordings according to the extended spatial autocorrelation method. Improved shear wave velocity profiles were estimated by combining Rayleigh wave dis- persion curves and horizontal to vertical spectral ratios in a joint inversion. We found that the velocities obtained for the reservoir site are higher than those for a location outside the reservoir. In addition to the fundamental res- onant peaks in the spectra, a clear 6-Hz-signal could be identified originating from the center of the geothermal field, repeatedly observed in 2010 and 2011. It had been claimed that low frequency (1–10 Hz) seismic signal anomalies were correlated with the occurrence of hydrocarbons. One of the physical mechanisms under consid- eration to explain these tremor-like signals above such reservoirs is resonant amplification due to the oscillation of bubbles. Based on the signal similarity with volcanic tremors, it is not a priori given that the liquid phase must be oil for resonance effects to occur. We therefore applied array techniques to identify potential noise originating from the Heybeli reservoir. In fact, the frequency–wavenumber (f–k) method clearly indicated a noise source coming from the main production well of the reservoir. In 2011, as part of our assessment, the operators of the spa facility stopped the extraction of thermal water for 2 h: the 6-Hz-signal disappeared after the pump had been stopped and reappeared after the pump began operating again. Thus, the 6-Hz-signal is likely of artificial origin. In addition, no natural noise source inside the reservoir could be identified