How to Deal with the Kremlin?

Seven years after the annexation of Crimea and amid an ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia has tried to move towards military escalation in the Donbass region making clear that the status quo emerged in 2014 as a “new normal” cannot last. The Minsk II Agreement negotiated between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany in the framework of the Normandy Format in February 2015 remains unimplemented despite numerous rounds of mediation. Western economic sanctions against Moscow succeeded in limiting the Kremlin’s military advance beyond Donbass and deterred it from making further territorial gains. However, these measures failed to impact on Russian decision-making regarding resolution of the conflict. Influencing Russia’s foreign policy is not an easy task, as the country’s conduct of international relations is shaped by domestic factors and the authoritarian nature of its governance. Still, the West needs a strategy in response to the international and domestic wrongdoings already committed by the Kremlin and as a preventative measure to deter Moscow’s future aggression. In order to face the Russian challenge, the West should first design clear rules for its own foreign-policy behaviour based on the primacy of human rights and democracy and then define how to defend universal values abroad, including in Russia. Only after, it could structure a transatlantic strategy along the following lines: active United States–European Union involvement in the Normandy Format aimed at the fulfilment of the Minsk II Agreement, strengthening Ukraine’s resilience in developing democracy and its military and energy sectors and finally improving sanctions mechanisms against the Kremlin

Civil Society and Conflict Transformation in Abkhazia, Israel/Palestine, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria and Western Sahara

The paper describes and analyses the role of civil society in five conflict cases – Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Western Sahara and Israel/ Palestine. It evaluates the relative effectiveness of civil society organisations (CSOs) and assesses the potential and limits of CSO involvement in conflicts. In particular it concentrates on civil society activities in the fields of peace training and education, including formal and non-formal education, as well as research and media work. The research also identifies the obstacles that local third sector is faced with, examining experiences and lessons learned. The study then presents critical assessments of local CSO contributions to conflict transformation and concludes with a set of suggestions for local and mid-level civil society actors involved in these five conflict cases and beyond. This paper is an overview study, to provide ideas and documentation to the more detailed empirical research carried out in the context of the MICROCON Work Package ‘Conflict in the European Neighbourhood’.Civil society, European Union, European Neighbourhood, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Western Sahara, Israel/Palestine, violent conflict, conflict transformation

The Moscow-Ankara Energy Axis and the Future of EU-Turkey Relations

FEUTURE Online Paper No. 5 The Turkey-Russia-EU energy triangle is a relationship of interdependence and strategic compromise. However, Russian support for secessionism and erosion of state autonomy in the Caucasus and Eurasia has proven difficult to reconcile for western European states despite their energy dependence. Yet, Turkey has enjoyed an enhanced bilateral relationship with Russia, augmenting its position and relevance in a strategic energy relationship with the EU. The relationship between Ankara and Moscow is principally based on energy security and domestic business interests, and has largely remained stable in times of regional turmoil. This paper analyses the dynamics of Ankara-Moscow cooperation in order to understand which of the three scenarios in EU-Turkey relations - conflict, cooperation or convergence - could be expected to develop bearing in mind that the partnership between Turkey and Russia has become unpredictable. The intimacy of Turkish-Russia energy relations and EU-Russian regional antagonism makes transactional cooperation on energy demand the most likely of future scenarios. A scenario in which both Brussels and Ankara will try to coordinate their relations with Russia through a positive agenda, in order to exploit the interdependence emerging within the “triangle”

Istituto Affari Internazionali Juggling Security, Democracy and Development in the Caucasus: What Role for the EU? IAI Working Papers 1322 Juggling Security, Democracy and Development in the Caucasus: What Role for the EU? 2 Juggling Security, Democracy a

Abstract Since the 1990s Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been engaged in a turbulent state-building process, attaching prime importance to military build-up, while casting this in a broader peace-building rhetoric. In order to meet their security needs, all of them have opted for a model of a strong state characterized by top-down governance and centralized power. The challenges of democracy, good governance and the rule of law have been neglected. Stabilizing the failing states has become a security need for the European Union as well. The EU's premise in its engagement with the territorial conflicts in the region has been its endorsement of the metropolitan state's territorial integrity and thus its non-recognition of the de facto independence of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and NagornoKarabakh. Within this framework, the EU's governance initiatives in the South Caucasus have focused on the promotion of democracy. In the EU's view, conflict resolution will come about in the long-run if Georgia and Azerbaijan become more attractive for the separatist entities. However, instead of real democracy promotion, what we have observed from the EU's side has been the accommodation of local forms of governance

Juggling security, democracy and development in the Caucasus : what role for the EU?

Nona Mikhelidz

The Moscow-Ankara energy axis and the future of EU-Turkey relations

The Turkey-Russia-EU energy triangle is a relationship of interdependence and strategic compromise. However, Russian support for secessionism and erosion of state autonomy in the Caucasus and Eurasia has proven difficult to reconcile for western European states despite their energy dependence. Yet, Turkey has enjoyed an enhanced bilateral relationship with Russia, augmenting its position and relevance in a strategic energy relationship with the EU. The relationship between Ankara and Moscow is principally based on energy security and domestic business interests, and has largely remained stable in times of regional turmoil. This paper analyses the dynamics of Ankara-Moscow cooperation in order to understand which of the three scenarios in EU–Turkey relations – conflict, cooperation or convergence – could be expected to develop bearing in mind that the partnership between Turkey and Russia has become unpredictable. The intimacy of Turkish-Russia energy relations and EU-Russian regional antagonism makes transactional cooperation on energy demand the most likely of future scenarios. A scenario in which both Brussels and Ankara will try to coordinate their relations with Russia through a positive agenda, in order to exploit the interdependence emerging within the “triangle”.Türkiye Rusya ve AB arasındaki enerji üçgeni bir karşılıklı bağımlılık ve stratejik uzlaşma ilişkisidir. Ancak, her ne kadar Rusya’ya enerji bağımlılıkları olsa da, Batı Avrupalı devletler için Rusya’nın Kafkasya ve Avrasyadaki ayrılıkçılığa ve devlet özerkliğinin erozyonuna verdiği desteğin kabullenilmesinin zor olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu arada, Türkiye Rusya ile güçlendirilmiş ikili ilişkileri sürdürürken, AB ile stratejik enerji ilişkisindeki konumunu ve alakasını artırmaktadır. Ankara ve Moskova arasındaki ilişki esasen enerji güvenliği ve yurtiçi ticari çıkarlara dayanmakta olup; bölgesel karışıklık zamanlarında büyük ölçüde istikrarlı bir seyir izlemiştir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki ortaklığın öngörülemez hale geldiğini akılda tutarak; Ankara-Moskova işbirliğinin dinamiklerini, AB-Türkiye ilişkilerindeki üç senaryodan -çatışma, işbirliği ya da yakınlaşma- hangisinin gerçekleşmesinin beklenebileceğini anlamak için analiz etmektedir. Türkiye-Rusya enerji ilişkilerinin yakınlığı ve AB-Rusya bölgesel zıtlaşması enerji talebine ilişkin alışveriş çıkarına dayalı işbirliğini gelecek senaryoları arasındaki en olası senaryo yapmaktadır. Bu senaryoda; Brüksel ve Ankara bu “üçgen” içinde ortaya çıkan karşılıklı bağımlılığı kendi çıkarları için kullanırken, Rusya ile ilişkilerini pozitif bir gündeme dayalı olarak koordine etmeye calışacaklardır

Islamic Radicalization: The Challenge for Euro-Mediterranean Relations. CEPS Paperbacks. June 2009

On June 4th, Obama will deliver his long-anticipated speech in Cairo, which is expected to convey a reconciliatory message to Arabs and Muslims across the world. As both the US and the EU are trying to reset their policies in the Middle East, the challenge of how to deal with the most important emerging actors in the region – Islamists – remains a matter of great controversy. In this book, Arab and European authors ask whether the EU's current policies are contributing to the radicalisation of Islamist movements in the Middle East and North Africa, and argue in favour of an EU policy based on inclusion