Dynamics of a birth-death process based on combinatorial innovation

A feature of human creativity is the ability to take a subset of existing items (e.g. objects, ideas, or techniques) and combine them in various ways to give rise to new items, which, in turn, fuel further growth. Occasionally, some of these items may also disappear (extinction). We model this process by a simple stochastic birth--death model, with non-linear combinatorial terms in the growth coefficients to capture the propensity of subsets of items to give rise to new items. In its simplest form, this model involves just two parameters $(P, \alpha)$. This process exhibits a characteristic 'hockey-stick' behaviour: a long period of relatively little growth followed by a relatively sudden 'explosive' increase. We provide exact expressions for the mean and variance of this time to explosion and compare the results with simulations. We then generalise our results to allow for more general parameter assignments, and consider possible applications to data involving human productivity and creativity.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figure

A Comparison of Wolf Depredation Sites in Areas With Migratory and Resident Elk

As large carnivores recover in many wilderness areas and mixed-use landscapes, wildlife management agencies must seek ways to minimize private property damage while maintaining viable populations. Although much is known about carnivore-livestock conflicts, drivers of these processes in the Northern Rocky Mountains are still emerging amid the dynamic conditions of recovering predator populations (gray wolves [Canis lupus] and grizzly bears [Ursus arctos horribilis]), declining elk productivity, and the re-distribution of migratory and resident elk subpopulations. There has been little research to date that examines the influence of fine-scale elk distribution and movements on patterns of livestock depredation. In this study, we analyze four years of cattle depredation data, two years of summer and fall wolf predation data (n = 4 wolves), and three years of elk movement data (n= 86 elk) to assess the influence of migratory and resident prey on the location and occurrence of wolf depredations on cattle. Wolves living in migratory elk areas face low densities of their preferred prey in summer, when elk depart for higher elevations inside Yellowstone National Park (YNP), while wolves living in the resident elk area have access to abundant elk year round. Wolves living in both areas have the potential to interact with several thousand head of cattle. We used logistic regression to compare the relative influence of landscape features on the risk of livestock depredation in the migratory and resident elk areas. Locations of wolf-killed cattle showed differences between the migratory elk area and the resident elk area. Depredation sites in the resident elk area were associated with habitats closer to roads and with high elk density, while depredation sites in the migratory elk area were associated with dens, streams, and open habitat away from the forest edge. Our findings indicate that knowledge of ungulate distributions and migration patterns can help understand and predict hotspots of wolf conflict with livestock

Required Levels of Catalysis for Emergence of Autocatalytic Sets in Models of Chemical Reaction Systems

The formation of a self-sustaining autocatalytic chemical network is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the origin of life. The question of whether such a network could form “by chance” within a sufficiently complex suite of molecules and reactions is one that we have investigated for a simple chemical reaction model based on polymer ligation and cleavage. In this paper, we extend this work in several further directions. In particular, we investigate in more detail the levels of catalysis required for a self-sustaining autocatalytic network to form. We study the size of chemical networks within which we might expect to find such an autocatalytic subset, and we extend the theoretical and computational analyses to models in which catalysis requires template matching

Detecting Higgs Boson Decay to Neutralinos at Hadron Supercolliders

We examine prospects for detecting the neutral Higgs bosons of minimal supersymmetric models (MSSM) when their decays into neutralino pairs are kinematically allowed. The best signature appears to be H_h,H_p\to\tz_2\tz_2\to 4\ell +\eslt. We argue that Standard Model contributions to this signature are negligible, and examine regions of MSSM parameter space where the four lepton mode should be observable at the Large Hadron Collider. The same signal can also come from continuum neutralino pair production. We propose a set of cuts to illustrate that the neutralino decay mode of the Higgs bosons provides a viable signal over a substantial range of model parameters, and show that it may be separable from continuum neutralino production if sufficient integrated luminosity can be accumulated.Comment: 15 pages (REVTEX), 7 figures available by regular mail, FSU-HEP-940204, UH-511-781-9

Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-Trastuzumab inhibited growth of ovarian cancer in preclinical mouse models

Introduction: Better treatments for ovarian cancer are needed to eliminate residual peritoneal disease after initial debulking surgery. The present study evaluated Trastuzumab to deliver Pb-214/Bi-214 for targeted alpha therapy (TAT) for HER2-positive ovarian cancer in mouse models of residual disease. This study is the first report of TAT using a novel Radon-222 generator to produce short-lived Lead-214 (Pb-214, t1/2 = 26.8 min) in equilibrium with its daughter Bismuth-214 (Bi-214, t1/2 = 19.7 min); referred to as Pb-214/Bi-214. In this study, Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-Trastuzumab was tested.Methods: Trastuzumab and control IgG antibody were conjugated with TCMC chelator and radiolabeled with Pb-214/Bi-214 to yield Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-Trastuzumab and Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-IgG1. The decay of Pb-214/Bi-214 yielded α-particles for TAT. SKOV3 and OVAR3 human ovarian cancer cell lines were tested for HER2 levels. The effects of Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-Trastuzumab and appropriate controls were compared using clonogenic assays and in mice bearing peritoneal SKOV3 or OVCAR3 tumors. Mice control groups included untreated, Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-IgG1, and Trastuzumab only.Results and discussion: SKOV3 cells had 590,000 ± 5,500 HER2 receptors/cell compared with OVCAR3 cells at 7,900 ± 770. In vitro clonogenic assays with SKOV3 cells showed significantly reduced colony formation after Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-Trastuzumab treatment compared with controls. Nude mice bearing luciferase-positive SKOV3 or OVCAR3 tumors were treated with Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-Trastuzumab or appropriate controls. Two 0.74 MBq doses of Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-Trastuzumab significantly suppressed the growth of SKOV3 tumors for 60 days, without toxicity, compared with three control groups (untreated, Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-IgG1, or Trastuzumab only). Mice-bearing OVCAR3 tumors had effective therapy without toxicity with two 0.74 MBq doses of Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-trastuzumab or Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-IgG1. Together, these data indicated that Pb-214/Bi-214 from a Rn-222 generator system was successfully applied for TAT. Pb-214/Bi-214-TCMC-Trastuzumab was effective to treat mouse xenograft models. Advantages of Pb-214/Bi-214 from the novel generator systems include high purity, short half-life for fractioned therapy, and hourly availability from the Rn-222 generator system. This platform technology can be applied for a variety of cancer treatment strategies

Preclinical Evaluation of the Novel, Orally Bioavailable Selective Inhibitor of Nuclear Export (SINE) KPT-335 in Spontaneous Canine Cancer: Results of a Phase I Study

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the activity of Selective Inhibitors of Nuclear Export (SINE) compounds that inhibit the function of the nuclear export protein Exportin 1 (XPO1/CRM1) against canine tumor cell lines and perform a Phase I clinical trial of KPT-335 in dogs with spontaneous cancer to provide a preliminary assessment of biologic activity and tolerability.Canine tumor cell lines derived from non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), mast cell tumor, melanoma and osteosarcoma exhibited growth inhibition and apoptosis in response to nanomolar concentrations of SINE compounds; NHL cells were particularly sensitive with IC50 concentrations ranging from 2-42 nM. A Phase I clinical trial of KPT-335 was performed in 17 dogs with NHL (naive or relapsed), mast cell tumor or osteosarcoma. The maximum tolerated dose was 1.75 mg/kg given orally twice/week (Monday/Thursday) although biologic activity was observed at 1 mg/kg. Clinical benefit (CB) including partial response to therapy (PR, n = 2) and stable disease (SD, n = 7) was observed in 9/14 dogs with NHL with a median time to progression (TTP) for responders of 66 days (range 35-256 days). A dose expansion study was performed in 6 dogs with NHL given 1.5 mg/kg KPT-335 Monday/Wednesday/Friday; CB was observed in 4/6 dogs with a median TTP for responders of 83 days (range 35-354 days). Toxicities were primarily gastrointestinal consisting of anorexia, weight loss, vomiting and diarrhea and were manageable with supportive care, dose modulation and administration of low dose prednisone; hepatotoxicity, anorexia and weight loss were the dose limiting toxicities.This study provides evidence that the novel orally bioavailable XPO1 inhibitor KPT-335 is safe and exhibits activity in a relevant, spontaneous large animal model of cancer. Data from this study provides critical new information that lays the groundwork for evaluation of SINE compounds in human cancer

Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modeling in Pediatric Drug Development, and the Importance of Standardized Scaling of Clearance.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modeling is important in the design and conduct of clinical pharmacology research in children. During drug development, PKPD modeling and simulation should underpin rational trial design and facilitate extrapolation to investigate efficacy and safety. The application of PKPD modeling to optimize dosing recommendations and therapeutic drug monitoring is also increasing, and PKPD model-based dose individualization will become a core feature of personalized medicine. Following extensive progress on pediatric PK modeling, a greater emphasis now needs to be placed on PD modeling to understand age-related changes in drug effects. This paper discusses the principles of PKPD modeling in the context of pediatric drug development, summarizing how important PK parameters, such as clearance (CL), are scaled with size and age, and highlights a standardized method for CL scaling in children. One standard scaling method would facilitate comparison of PK parameters across multiple studies, thus increasing the utility of existing PK models and facilitating optimal design of new studies