Modelización regional del proyecto escena de ciclones subtropicales sobre el Atlántico nororiental

Ponencia presentada en: XXXIV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XVII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Teruel, del 29 de febrero al 2 de marzo de 2016

Subtropical cyclones projections in future climate conditions over the northeastern Atlantic

Ponencia presentada en: XXXV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XIX Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en León, del 5 al 7 de marzo de 2018.Hybrid cyclones called subtropical cyclones (STCs) have attracted the attention of scientific and forecasting community due to their identification as damaging weather systems. A study of STCs under future climate scenarios has not been performed yet. For the first time, in this work we analyse the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate STCs in addition to searching for possible alterations in their frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change over the subtropical northeastern Atlantic basin. By using an ensemble of three RCMs nested in four different global climate models (GCMs), we find that RCMs acceptably reproduce STCs (except for certain model combinations) for the historical climate period (1951–2000). For future climate conditions under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios (2001–2050), more simulations indicate a decrease in the frequency of STCs than those which find an increase. This decrease is showed to be partially due to a reduced presence of extratropical cyclones, from which they tend to form, within that region. However, no strong agreement between simulations has been obtained, and other factors like the changes in the conversion rate could affect STCs in the future. With respect to intensity, no clear tendency is found

Factores motivacionales en la elección de un posgrado en administración

The present study forms part of the research project that was carried out within the framework of the short stay of research carriedout in a national IES. The project is of a cross-correlation type witha quantitative approach, it was carried out with the purpose of determining the level of the factors that influence the choice of thepostgraduate in professional management of two public universities in Mexico. he population 1 belongs to students of the Mastersin Administrative Sciences of the Accounting and AdministrationFaculty (FCA) of the Veracruzana University (UV) Coatzacoalcoscampus and the 2 post corresponds to the Master in ManagementAdministration of the Autonomous University of San Luis Potosíof the Altiplano Regional Coordination (COARA) Matehuala campus. The decision was made to establish a population census: 26students of the FCA and 18 of the COARA. The results show thatthe motivation level is 91 % in the COARA and 86 % in the FCAwith a cronbach alpha of 0.8730. It was recommended to create aprofessional Master's program of PNPC of CONACYT.El presente estudio forma parte del proyecto de investigación quese realizó en el marco de la estancia corta de investigación realizada en una IES nacional. El proyecto es de tipo correlacionaltransversal con enfoque cuantitativo, se realizó con la finalidad dedeterminar el nivel de los factores que influyen en la elección delposgrado en Administración profesionalizante de dos universidades públicas de México. La población 1 pertenece a estudiantes dela Maestría en Ciencias Administrativas de la Facultad de Contaduría y Administración (FCA) de la Universidad Veracruzana (UV)campus Coatzacoalcos y la población 2 corresponde a la Maestríaen Administración Gerencial de la Universidad Autónoma de SanLuis Potosí de la Coordinación Regional Altiplano (COARA) campus Matehuala. Se tomó la decisión de establecer un censo poblacional: 26 estudiantes de la FCA y 18 de la COARA. Los resultadosmuestran que el nivel motivación es 91 % en la COARA y 86 % enla FCA con un alfa de cronbach de 0.8730. Se recomendó crear unprograma de Maestría profesionalizante de PNPC de CONACYT

At the beginnings of the funerary Megalithism in Iberia at Campo de Hockey necropolis

The excavations undertaken at the Campo de Hockey site in 2008 led to the identification of a major Neolithic necropolis in the former Island of San Fernando (Bay of Cádiz). This work presents the results of the latest studies, which indicate that the site stands as one of the oldest megalithic necropolises in the Iberian Peninsula. The main aim of this work is to present with precision the chronology of this necropolis through a Bayesian statistical model that confirms that the necropolis was in use from c. 4300 to 3800 cal BC. The presence of prestige grave goods in the earliest and most monumental graves suggest that the Megalithism phenomenon emerged in relation to maritime routes linked to the distribution of exotic products. We also aim to examine funerary practices in these early megalithic communities, and especially their way of life and the social reproduction system. As such, in addition to the chronological information and the Bayesian statistics, we provide the results of a comprehensive interdisciplinary study, including anthropological, archaeometric and genetic data.State Research Agency (SRA)European Commission HAR2017-87324-P 2014-2020 ERDF Operational ProgrammeDepartment of Economy, Knowledge, Business and University of the Regional Government of Andalusia FEDER-UCA18-106917 CEIMAR CEIJ-015European Social Fund (ESF) D1113102E3Junta de Andaluci

Implications of the prevalence of Ascaris sp. in the funerary context of a Late Antique population (5th-7th c.) in Granada (Spain)

E. Camarós is funded by the Ramón y Cajal Program. A. Rubio Salvador is funded by the Postdoctoral Margaritas Salas grant from the Ministerio de Universidades [UNI/551/2021] and by a Next Generation EU grant from the University of Granada.Objective: To evaluate the prevalence of gastro-intestinal parasites in human remains from Late Antiquity (5th – 7th c.) Granada (Spain). Materials: The study included pelvic and cranial control samples from 17 skeletons from the archaeological sites of Los Mondragones (n = 13) and Rafael Guillén (n = 4). Methods: In the paleoparasitological study, soil samples from pelvic area and cranium were analyzed using the rehydration, homogenization, and micro-sieving method and visualization under brightfield microscopy. Results: Ascaris sp. eggs were detected in pelvic samples from seven individuals. Conclusions: These findings may indicate that this parasite was endemic. Its detection frequency is one of the highest reported at group level in an osteological series from Late Antiquity. Significance: The prevalence of Ascaris sp. associated with skeletal remains has implications for assessing the lifestyle and health of populations in southern Spain during the Late Antique period. Limitations: The number of individuals is small and taphonomic processes could have limited paleoparasitological findings Suggestions for further research: Future interdisciplinary studies of this type are warranted in larger osteological series to improve knowledge of parasitosis in the past.Ramón y Cajal ProgramMinisterio de Universidades [UNI/551/2021]Next Generation EUUniversity of Granad

AEMET NWP Activities: 3rd ACCORD ASW

Póster presentado en: 3rd ACCORD ASW celebrado del 27 al 31 de marzo de 2023 en Tallin, Estonia

At the beginnings of the funerary Megalithism in Iberia at Campo de Hockey necropolis

[EN] The excavations undertaken at the Campo de Hockey site in 2008 led to the identification of a major Neolithic necropolis in the former Island of San Fernando (Bay of Cadiz). This work presents the results of the latest studies, which indicate that the site stands as one of the oldest megalithic necropolises in the Iberian Peninsula. The main aim of this work is to present with precision the chronology of this necropolis through a Bayesian statistical model that confirms that the necropolis was in use from c. 4300 to 3800 cal BC. The presence of prestige grave goods in the earliest and most monumental graves suggest that the Megalithism phenomenon emerged in relation to maritime routes linked to the distribution of exotic products. We also aim to examine funerary practices in these early megalithic communities, and especially their way of life and the social reproduction system. As such, in addition to the chronological information and the Bayesian statistics, we provide the results of a comprehensive interdisciplinary study, including anthropological, archaeometric and genetic data.We wish to express our gratitude to Antonio Saez Espligares (Historical Museum of San Fernando) and Lourdes Lorenzo (Figlina, s.l.) for their support during the archaeological excavation. This research was conducted in the framework of the following research projects: "Analysis of prehistoric societies from the Middle Palaeolithic to the Late Neolithic at both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar: relations and contacts", funded by the State Research Agency (SRA) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). Ref.: HAR2017-87324-P. (2018-2021). "Analisis interdisciplinar para el conocimiento del poblamiento humano de la Bahia de Cadiz durante la Prehistoria Reciente (VI-II milenios a.n.e.)", funded by 2014-2020 ERDF Operational Programme and the Department of Economy, Knowledge, Business and University of the Regional Government of Andalusia. Ref.: FEDER-UCA18-106917 (2020-2023). "Analisis de los isotopos de oxigeno en conchas y de los isotopos estables de oxigeno y carbono en huesos humanos en el poblado neolitico insular de Campo de Hockey (San Fernando, Cadiz)", authorised and funded by CEIMAR. Ref.: CEIJ-015 (2018-2019). Eduardo Molina Piernas acknowledges co-funding from European Social Fund (D1113102E3) and Junta de Andalucia

Impacto de modelos regionales de clima acoplados océano-atmósfera y de la alta resolución en la simulación de medicanes sobre el mar Mediterráneo: análisis multimodelo con las simulaciones de EURO-CORDEX y Med-CORDEX

Ponencia presentada en: XXXIV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XVII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Teruel, del 29 de febrero al 2 de marzo de 2016

Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling and increased resolution

Medicanes are cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea having a tropical-like structure but a rather small size, that can produce significant damage due to the combination of intense winds and heavy precipitation. Future climate projections, performed generally with individual atmospheric climate models, indicate that the intensity of the medicanes could increase under climate change conditions. The availability of large ensembles of high resolution and ocean–atmosphere coupled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, performed in MedCORDEX and EURO-CORDEX projects, represents an opportunity to improve the assessment of the impact of climate change on medicanes. As a first step towards such an improved assessment, we analyze the ability of the RCMs used in these projects to reproduce the observed characteristics of medicanes, and the impact of increased resolution and air-sea coupling on their simulation. In these storms, air-sea interaction plays a fundamental role in their formation and intensification, a different mechanism from that of extra-tropical cyclones, where the baroclinic instability mechanism prevails. An observational database, based on satellite images combined with high resolution simulations (Miglietta et al. in Geophys Res Lett 40:2400–2405, 2013), is used as a reference for evaluating the simulations. In general, the simulated medicanes do not coincide on a case-by-case basis with the observed medicanes. However, observed medicanes with a high intensity and relatively long duration of tropical characteristics are better replicated in simulations. The observed spatial distribution of medicanes is generally well simulated, while the monthly distribution reveals the difficulty of simulating the medicanes that first appear in September after the summer minimum in occurrence. Increasing the horizontal resolution has a systematic and generally positive impact on the frequency of simulated medicanes, while the general underestimation of their intensity is not corrected in most cases. The capacity of a few models to better simulate the medicane intensity suggests that the model formulation is more important than reducing the grid spacing alone. A negative intensity feedback is frequently the result of air-sea interaction for tropical cyclones in other basins. The introduction of air-sea coupling in the present simulations has an overall limited impact on medicane frequency and intensity, but it produces an interesting seasonal shift of the simulated medicanes from autumn to winter. This fact, together with the analysis of two contrasting particular cases, indicates that the negative feedback could be limited or even absent in certain situations. We suggest that the effects of air-sea interaction on medicanes may depend on the oceanic mixed layer depth, thus increasing the applicability of ocean–atmosphere coupled RCMs for climate change analysis of this kind of cyclones

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Largest HIV-1 CRF02_AG Outbreak in Spain: Evidence for Onward Transmissions

Background and Aim: The circulating recombinant form 02_AG (CRF02_AG) is the predominant clade among the human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) non-Bs with a prevalence of 5.97% (95% Confidence Interval-CI: 5.41–6.57%) across Spain. Our aim was to estimate the levels of regional clustering for CRF02_AG and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the largest CRF02_AG subepidemic in Spain.Methods: We studied 396 CRF02_AG sequences obtained from HIV-1 diagnosed patients during 2000–2014 from 10 autonomous communities of Spain. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on the 391 CRF02_AG sequences along with all globally sampled CRF02_AG sequences (N = 3,302) as references. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis was performed to the largest CRF02_AG monophyletic cluster by a Bayesian method in BEAST v1.8.0 and by reconstructing ancestral states using the criterion of parsimony in Mesquite v3.4, respectively.Results: The HIV-1 CRF02_AG prevalence differed across Spanish autonomous communities we sampled from (p < 0.001). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 52.7% of the CRF02_AG sequences formed 56 monophyletic clusters, with a range of 2–79 sequences. The CRF02_AG regional dispersal differed across Spain (p = 0.003), as suggested by monophyletic clustering. For the largest monophyletic cluster (subepidemic) (N = 79), 49.4% of the clustered sequences originated from Madrid, while most sequences (51.9%) had been obtained from men having sex with men (MSM). Molecular clock analysis suggested that the origin (tMRCA) of the CRF02_AG subepidemic was in 2002 (median estimate; 95% Highest Posterior Density-HPD interval: 1999–2004). Additionally, we found significant clustering within the CRF02_AG subepidemic according to the ethnic origin.Conclusion: CRF02_AG has been introduced as a result of multiple introductions in Spain, following regional dispersal in several cases. We showed that CRF02_AG transmissions were mostly due to regional dispersal in Spain. The hot-spot for the largest CRF02_AG regional subepidemic in Spain was in Madrid associated with MSM transmission risk group. The existence of subepidemics suggest that several spillovers occurred from Madrid to other areas. CRF02_AG sequences from Hispanics were clustered in a separate subclade suggesting no linkage between the local and Hispanic subepidemics