24 research outputs found
Separated by a common currency? Evidence from the Euro changeover
We study the price convergence of goods and services in the euro area in 2001-2002. To measure the degree of convergence, we compare the prices of around 220 items in 32 European cities. The width of the border is the price di€erence attributed to the fact that the two cities are in different countries. We find that the 2001 European borders are negative, which suggests that the markets were very integrated before the euro changeover. Moreover, we do not identify an integration effect attributable to the introduction of the euro. We then explore the determinants of the European borders. We find that different languages, wealth and population differences tend to split the markets. Historical inflation, though, tends to lead to price convergence.Euro, economic integration
On the drivers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels
We use the recent introduction of biofuels to study the effect of industry factors on the relationships between wholesale commodity prices. Correlations between agricultural products and oil are strongest in the 2005-09 period, coinciding with the boom of biofuels, and remain substantial until 2011. We disentangle three possible drivers for the linkage: substitution, energy costs, and financialization. The timing and magnitude of the biofuels-to-oil relationships are different to those of other commodities, and far higher than can be justified by costs and financialization. Substitution and costs drive the monthly correlations of long-term futures, and each of the three contribute equally to the daily co-movement of the short-term ones. The findings survive many robustness checks and appear in the stock market.biofuels, commodities, co-movement, ethanol, oil, structural breaks
Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices
We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfolios influences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.Electricity, market power, simulations, technology diversification
Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case
Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paper explores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailing wholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demand representations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include several behavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theory predictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not under fictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding, and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number of bids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulation assumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, and identify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.Agent-based computational economics, electricity, market design, experience-weighted attraction (EWA), learning, supply functions, demand aggregation, initial beliefs.
TV or not TV? Subtitling and English skills
We study the influence of television translation techniques on the quality of the English spoken across the EU and OCDE. We identify a large positive effect for subtitled original version as opposed to dubbed television, which loosely corresponds to between four and twenty years of compulsory English education at school. We also show that the importance of subtitled television is robust to a wide array of specifications. We then find that subtitling and better English skills have an influence on high-tech exports, international student mobility, and other economic and social outcomes.I21 i N00
Incentives and coordination in vertically related energy markets
We present an agent-based model of a multi-tier energy market including gas shippers, electricity generators and retailers. We show how reward interdependence between strategic business units within a vertically integrated firm can increase its profits in oligopolistic energy markets. The effects are shown to be distinct from those of the raising rivalsâ costs model. In our case, higher prices relate to the nature of energy markets, which facilitate the emergence of financial netback effects.Es wird ein Agenten-basiertes Modell eines Energiemarktes mit mehreren Ebenen der Wertschöpfungskette vorgestellt, das Gaslieferanten, Stromerzeuger und HĂ€ndler berĂŒcksichtigt. Es kann gezeigt werden, wie ein vertikal integriertes Unternehmen, das auf oligopolistischen EnergiemĂ€rkten agiert, die Honorierungsbeziehungen zwischen strategischen GeschĂ€ftsbereichen nutzen kann, um seine Gewinne zu steigern. Ăblicherweise versuchen Firmen, die die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette integriert haben, ihren Vorteil dadurch zu nutzen, dass sie die Kosten der Wettbewerber durch Preisdiskriminierung erhöhen und den Markt gegen sie abschotten. Das ist in EnergiemĂ€rkten nicht möglich. Im vorgestellten Modell wird ein Mechanismus gewĂ€hlt, der den Charakteristika von EnergiemĂ€rkten angepasst ist, um ĂŒber Anreize denselben Endeffekt zu erzielen. Dieser beruht aber nicht auf der Marktabschottung, sondern auf einem finanziellen Valorisierungseffekt, bei dem Unternehmensbereiche am Beginn der Wertschöpfungskette die Preisspannen fĂŒr die Unternehmensteile am oberen Ende vorgeben
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Behavioural simulations in spot electricity markets
We study the consistency of behavioural simulation methods used to model the operations of wholesale electricity markets. We include different supply and demand representations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method (Camerer and Ho, 1999) to encompass several behavioural paradigms. We compare the results across assumptions and to standard economic theory predictions. The match is good under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding, and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number of bids per plant and the initial conditions. The simulations perform best under reinforcement learning, less well under best-response and especially poorly under fictitious play. The overall conclusion is that simulation assumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, and identify those that are better suited to model liberalised electricity markets
On the drivers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels
We use the recent introduction of biofuels to study the effect of industry factors on the relationships
between wholesale commodity prices. Correlations between agricultural products and oil
are strongest in the 2005-09 period, coinciding with the boom of biofuels, and remain substantial
until 2011. We disentangle three possible drivers for the linkage: substitution, energy costs, and
financialization. The timing and magnitude of the biofuels-to-oil relationships are different to those
of other commodities, and far higher than can be justified by costs and financialization. Substitution
and costs drive the monthly correlations of long-term futures, and each of the three contribute
equally to the daily co-movement of the short-term ones. The findings survive many robustness
checks and appear in the stock market
On the drivers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels
We use the recent introduction of biofuels to study the effect of industry factors on the relationshipsbetween wholesale commodity prices. Correlations between agricultural products and oilare strongest in the 2005-09 period, coinciding with the boom of biofuels, and remain substantialuntil 2011. We disentangle three possible drivers for the linkage: substitution, energy costs, andfinancialization. The timing and magnitude of the biofuels-to-oil relationships are different to thoseof other commodities, and far higher than can be justified by costs and financialization. Substitutionand costs drive the monthly correlations of long-term futures, and each of the three contributeequally to the daily co-movement of the short-term ones. The findings survive many robustnesschecks and appear in the stock market