Macroeconomic Stability, Governance and Growth: Empirical Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition

Using panel data for the period 1989-2006 we revisit the empirics of economic growth in the context of the post-communist transition. We pay particular attention to the mechanisms of causation and to the potential endogeneity of the macroeconomic stability indicators considered to be important in the existing literature. Carefully employing a variety of econometric techniques we consistently find that macroeconomic instability is bad for economic growth. We find some evidence that institutions of governance are important for economic growth through their influence on the macroeconomic environment. That is, good institutions are conducive to macroeconomic stability which in turn positively impacts upon economic growth. We also find, in contrast with other work, that investments in education have had a strong positive impact on growth in transition while other 'standard' economic growth determinants remain less important. These findings are shown to be robust to a variety of econometric approaches, specifications and time spans

Better means more: property rights and high-growth aspiration entrepreneurship

This paper contrasts the determinants of entrepreneurial entry and high-growth aspiration entrepreneurship. Using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) surveys for 42 countries over the period 1998-2005, we analyse how institutional environment and entrepreneurial characteristics affect individual decisions to become entrepreneurs and aspirations to set up high-growth ventures. We find that institutions exert different effects on entrepreneurial entry and on the individual choice to launch high-growth aspiration projects. In particular, a strong property rights system is important for high-growth aspiration entrepreneurship, but has less pronounced effects for entrepreneurial entry. The availability of finance and the fiscal burden matter for both

Regional and labour market development in candidate countries: a literature survey

There has been substantial convergence of candidate countries to Western European institutions and labour market outcomes. Despite this, the labour markets in the candidate countries have their individual features: long and persistent reductions in employment rates as well as a higher incidence of long-term unemployment; more severe mass redundancy regulations and weaker trade unions and social partnership organisations; low turnover in and out of unemployment; and declining internal migration. Accession will trigger institutional changes by the social acquis, environmental and competition policy as well as – at a later stage – accession to EMU, the impact of the EU's structural policy on the candidate countries, and changes in trade, foreign direct investment and migration. In assessing the consequences of these changes, literature is far from unanimous, but some hypotheses can be developed: 1. Integration will have important structural and distributional effects and positive aggregate effects. 2. The capability of labour markets to adjust to such shocks will determine the labour market outcomes of integration. 3. Extrapolating purely from the current labour market dynamics to a time after enlargement may lead to misinterpretations, since "adjustment mechanisms" are endogenous. 4. National policy decisions and use of structural funds are a key in triggering regional convergence. Regional issues should be given attention when analysing integration effects. Experience from previous enlargements suggests that convergence is far from automatic after accession. Policy takes a decisive role in determining the outcomes. Regional development in candidate countries suggests some potential for further divergence

Inherited labour hoarding, insiders and employment growth:panel data results : Poland, 1996-2002

Using panel data pertaining to large Polish (non-financial) firms this paper examines the determinants of employment change during the period 1996-2002. Paying particular attention to the asymmetry hypothesis we investigate the impact of own wages, outside wages, output growth, regional characteristics and sectoral affiliation on the evolution of employment. In keeping with the 'right to manage' model we find that employment dynamics are not affected negatively by alternative wages. Furthermore, in contrast to the early transition period, we find evidence that employment levels respond to positive sales growth (in all but state firms). The early literature, (e.g. Kollo, 1998) found that labour hoarding lowered employment elasticities in the presence of positive demand shocks. Our findings suggest that inherited labour hoarding may no longer be a factor. We argue that the present pattern of employment adjustment is better explained by the role of insiders. This tentative conclusion is hinged on the contrasting behaviour of state and privatised companies and the similar behaviour of privatised and new private companies. We conclude that lower responsiveness of employment to both positive and negative changes in revenue in state firms is consistent with the proposition that rent sharing by insiders is stronger in the state sector

Privatisation, corporate control and employment growth:evidence from a panel of large Polish firms, 1996-2002

Using panel data on large Polish firms this paper examines the relationship between corporate control structures, sales growth and the determinants of employment change during the period 1996-2002. We find that privatised and de novo firms are the main drivers of employment growth and that, in the case of de novo firms, it is foreign ownership which underpins the result. Interestingly, we find that being privatised has a positive impact on employment growth but that this impact is concentrated within a range of three to six years after privatisation. In contrast with the findings of earlier literature, we find evidence that there are no systematic differences in employment response to negative sales growth across the ownership categories. On the other hand, employment in state firms is less responsive to positive sales growth. From these combined results we infer that the behaviour of state firms is constrained by both insider rent sharing and binding budget constraints. Consistent with this, we find that privatised companies, three to six years post-privatisation, are the firms for whom employment is most responsive to positive sales growth and as such, offer the best hope for rapid labour market expansion

Mortality and financial crises

Drawing on a dataset covering more than 100 countries from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the impact of different types of financial crises on male and female mortality. We find that only currency crises have a direct short-term impact on mortality rates. We stylize our reading of the key empirical evidence of this paper in the following way: of three distinct types of financial crises, it is currency crises that have a direct short-term impact on mortality rates, and this is particularly the case for males

Entrepreneurship, institutional economics, and economic growth:an ecosystem perspective

We analyze conceptually and in an empirical counterpart the relationship between economic growth, factor inputs, institutions, and entrepreneurship. In particular, we investigate whether entrepreneurship and institutions, in combination in an ecosystem, can be viewed as a “missing link” in an aggregate production function analysis of cross-country differences in economic growth. To do this, we build on the concept of National Systems of Entrepreneurship (NSE) as resource allocation systems that combine institutions and human agency into an interdependent system of complementarities. We explore the empirical relevance of these ideas using data from a representative global survey and institutional sources for 46 countries over the period 2002–2011. We find support for the role of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in economic growth

Start-up financing in the age of Globalisation

We investigate the determinants of start-up financing in 54 countries, using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) surveys for years 2001-2006. We find that financial liberalisation increases the total financial size of the individual start-up entrepreneurial project both via the increased use of external and of own funds. In addition, the volume of start-up finance responds positively to international capital inflows as represented by loans from non-resident banks and remittances, and negatively to the volume of offshore deposits. The positive impact of remittances on total volume of start-up financing is via own finance of the entrepreneur

Inequality, Fiscal Capacity and the Political Regime: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57211/1/wp831 .pd