Recovery of the Austrian economy following the COVID-19 crisis can take up to three years, IIASA Policy Brief #26

Collaboration between researchers from IIASA, WU, WIFO, and the IHS provides scenarios of the medium-run economic effects of the lockdown in Austria using the IIASA macroeconomic simulation model. The analysis suggests that the return to the business-as-usual trend may take up to three years after a steep initial economic downturn due to the lockdown, and a gradual recovery thereafter

Update: Extension of the Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) Model for Austria: Implementation of Endogenous Portfolio Choice and Simple Markup Pricing

This study presents the current status in the development of a novel empirical stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for Austria. SFC models are macroeconomic accounting models that feature several aggregated heterogeneous agents (sectors) and different classes of financial assets and liabilities. Stocks of assets/liabilities and financial flows of and between the sectors are depicted in a consistent and rigid accounting structure based on the logic of national annual sectoral accounts (flow of funds). The modelling approach allows complex interactions between agents as well as between the real and financial economy. Here, the SFC approach is used to construct an empirical model for the Austrian national economy that features endogenous economic dynamics. The dynamics do not necessarily converge to a steady state, but are based on trends derived from national accounting data. The moset recent extension in the current stage of development, is the implementation of (1) an endogenous portfolio choice for financial assets based on estimations from national accounting data and (2) a simple markup pricing mechanism derived from national accounting identities. A medium-term target of this work in progress is to develop a tool which is fit for medium to long-term forecasting, scenario-based policy evaluation/simulation, which can be the basis for policy advice. IndieserStudiewirdderderzeitigeEntwicklungsstandeinesneuartigenempirischenbestands- und flussgrößenkonsistenten (Stock-flow Consistent - SFC) Modells vorgestellt. SFC Modelle sind makroökonomische Modelle, die sich durch eine makroökonomisch konsistente Buchhaltung, aggregierte heterogene Agenten (Sektoren) sowie verschiedene Klassen von finanziellen Forderungen und Verbindlichkeiten auszeichnen. Bestände von Forderungen/Verbindlichkeiten und finanzielle Flüsse der bzw. zwischen den Sektoren werden in einer konsistenten und rigiden buchhalterischen Struktur gemäß der Logik der volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung (jährliche Sektorkontenrechnung) dargestellt. Dieser Modellierungsansatz erlaubt komplexe Interaktion sowohl zwischen Agenten als auch zwischen Real- und Finanzwirtschaft. An dieser Stelle wird der SFC Ansatz für die Konstruktion eines empirischen Modells der österreichischen Ökonomie herangezogen. In der derzeitigen Ausbaustufe des sich in Arbeit befindlichen Modells wurde eine endogene Portfoliowahl für finanzielle Vermögenswerte basierend auf empirischen Schätzungen aus Daten der VGR, sowie ein simpler realwirtschaftlicher Preismechanismus zusätzlich hinzugefügt. Ein mittelfristiges Ziel dieses noch in Bearbeitung befindlichen Modells ist die Bereitstellung eines Werkzeugs für mittel- bis langfristige Prognose sowie für Szenario-basierte Politikmaßnahmenevaluation, das nach seiner Fertigstellung als Basis für Politikberatung dienen soll

Stranding ahoy? Heterogeneous transition beliefs and capital investment choices

Individuals have heterogeneous beliefs regarding the future speed and shape of the low-carbon transition. In this paper, we study to what extent opinion diversity matters for aggregate capital investment decisions. We develop a model where firms formulate heterogeneous expectations around a dominant narrative, or ‘market norm’, with their dispersion increasing over a finite planning horizon. Our analytical and numerical results suggest that belief heterogeneity can significantly affect the share of low-carbon investments, with the strength of its effects non-linearly correlated to market norms. We show that investment behaviour tends to be more sensitive to shocks to short-term, rather than long-term, belief heterogeneity, highlighting the importance of setting credible short-term targets. Finally, we find beliefs to interact strongly and in non-trivial ways with measures of short-termism, with increasing agents' farsightedness not necessarily leading to less carbon-intensive investments under high heterogeneity.</p

Recovery of the Austrian economy following the COVID-19 crisis can take up to three years

The scenario analysis carried out using the IIASA simulation model for the Austrian economy concludes that it may take up to three years until the economy recovers from the shock caused by the shutdown measures and returns to the growth path it had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. For 2020, the model simulations predict a 4% fall in GDP for a shutdown until mid-May, which would be as high as 6% if the shutdown were to last until mid-June. In spite of strong recovery dynamics, with increases in the GDP growth rates around two percentage points above benchmark in the years 2021 and 2022, the GDP levels will remain below the pre-crisis trend within the scenario horizon, indicating lasting effects of the COVID-19 crisis in the medium-term

Sterol regulatory element binding protein-dependent regulation of lipid synthesis supports cell survival and tumor growth.

BACKGROUND: Regulation of lipid metabolism via activation of sterol regulatory element binding proteins (SREBPs) has emerged as an important function of the Akt/mTORC1 signaling axis. Although the contribution of dysregulated Akt/mTORC1 signaling to cancer has been investigated extensively and altered lipid metabolism is observed in many tumors, the exact role of SREBPs in the control of biosynthetic processes required for Akt-dependent cell growth and their contribution to tumorigenesis remains unclear. RESULTS: We first investigated the effects of loss of SREBP function in non-transformed cells. Combined ablation of SREBP1 and SREBP2 by siRNA-mediated gene silencing or chemical inhibition of SREBP activation induced endoplasmic reticulum (ER)-stress and engaged the unfolded protein response (UPR) pathway, specifically under lipoprotein-deplete conditions in human retinal pigment epithelial cells. Induction of ER-stress led to inhibition of protein synthesis through increased phosphorylation of eIF2α. This demonstrates for the first time the importance of SREBP in the coordination of lipid and protein biosynthesis, two processes that are essential for cell growth and proliferation. SREBP ablation caused major changes in lipid composition characterized by a loss of mono- and poly-unsaturated lipids and induced accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and apoptosis. Alterations in lipid composition and increased ROS levels, rather than overall changes to lipid synthesis rate, were required for ER-stress induction.Next, we analyzed the effect of SREBP ablation in a panel of cancer cell lines. Importantly, induction of apoptosis following SREBP depletion was restricted to lipoprotein-deplete conditions. U87 glioblastoma cells were highly susceptible to silencing of either SREBP isoform, and apoptosis induced by SREBP1 depletion in these cells was rescued by antioxidants or by restoring the levels of mono-unsaturated fatty acids. Moreover, silencing of SREBP1 induced ER-stress in U87 cells in lipoprotein-deplete conditions and prevented tumor growth in a xenograft model. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, these results demonstrate that regulation of lipid composition by SREBP is essential to maintain the balance between protein and lipid biosynthesis downstream of Akt and to prevent resultant ER-stress and cell death. Regulation of lipid metabolism by the Akt/mTORC1 signaling axis is required for the growth and survival of cancer cells

The glutathione redox system is essential to prevent ferroptosis caused by impaired lipid metabolism in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

The publisher's final edited version of this article is available at Oncogene. 2018 Oct;37(40):5435-5450. doi: 10.1038/s41388-018-0315-z. Epub 2018 Jun 5. Non-commercial use onlyThis study was funded by Cancer Research UK, the German Research Foundation (FOR2314) and the German Cancer Aid (111917)

Kapitel 16. Geld- und Finanzsystem

Dieses Kapitel bewertet, inwiefern Anreizstrukturen des Geld- und Finanzsystems die Transfor-mation zu einer klimafreundlichen und nachhaltigen Lebensweise in Österreich begünstigen oder behindern. Zudem trifft es eine literaturbasierte Einschätzung darüber, in welche größeren wirt-schaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen Strukturen das Geld- und Finanzsystem in Österreich einge-bettet ist. Bereits eingeleitete und potenzielle zukünftige Reformen des Finanzsystems und Än-derungen des bestehenden Geldsystems werden dahingehend überprüft, inwiefern sie Kapital-ströme mobilisieren können, die für die Finanzierung der Strukturen für eine klimafreundliche Lebensweise notwendig sein werden

Economic Forecasting with an Agent-Based Model

We develop the first agent-based model (ABM) that can compete with and in the long run significantly outperform benchmark VAR and DSGE models in out-of-sample forecasting of macro variables. Our ABM for a small open economy uses micro and macro data from national sector accounts, input-output tables, government statistics, and census data. The model incorporates all economic activities as classified by the European System of Accounts as heterogeneous agents. The detailed structure of the ABM allows for a breakdown into sector level forecasts. Potential applications of the model include stress-testing and predicting the effects of monetary or fiscal macroeconomic policies