A view from above : changing seas, seabirds and food sources

In this review we summarize what is known about mechanisms by which climate change may be affecting the populations of seabirds around the UK. Breeding success and adult survival are the key factors affecting changes in seabird populations, and food intake is implicated as a major determinant of both. The diet of most UK seabird species is almost exclusively sandeels, small clupeoid fish or zooplankton and it is clear that the marine pelagic food web is the key ecological system determining food supply. Hence, we develop the review by first considering how climate changes may affect primary production, and then examine how this propagates through the food web to zooplankton and fish culminating in fluctuations in seabird numbers. A trend of increasing numbers of many seabird species since 1970, particularly puffins, guillemots and razorbills, appears to have been reversed since 2000. The proximate cause of the recent declines seems to be a succession of 5 years of low breeding success for a range of species due to a shortage of food, especially sandeels. However, the connection with climate change remains uncertain, though there are indications that declines in the productivity of sandeel populations may be linked in some complex way to warming sea temperatures. The main conclusion is that no part of the marine food web, including fisheries, can be considered in isolation when trying to understand and predict the consequences of climate change for seabirds. Impacts can be expected in all parts of the system, and all parts of the system are interconnected

Observations of Short Period Mesospheric Wave Patterns: In Situ or Tropospheric Wave Generation

Near infrared images showing wave structure in the hydroxyl (OH) nightglow emission have been obtained from Maui, Hawaii during the ALOHA‐90 campaign. Analysis of two nights during this campaign (25 and 31 March) indicate extensive, highly coherent, linear wave patterns of very short apparent period (∼5 and 10 min respectively). Both displays exhibited several features characteristic of the in situ breakdown of a large scale, long period, upper atmospheric wave disturbance. Data in support of this mechanism was found by other ALOHA instruments which detected concurrent long period (1–2 hour) mesospheric wave disturbances on both occasions. However, a tropospheric source for these waves cannot be ruled out. At least on 25 March a weather front occurred at ∼1400 km range with a favourable orientation and location. Although its range was relatively large, background winds may have substantially increased the path length of the waves through the intervening atmosphere

Still\u27s Disease in Adults

In 1897, Dr. George F. Still described 22 children with a form of chronic joint disease which differed from rheumatic fever. Twelve of these children had a syndrome characterized by glandular and splenic enlargement which, with a characteristic fever pattern, rash, and arthritis, has become known as Still\u27s disease. Subsequent investigators have described patients over age 16 presenting with similar signs and symptoms suggesting that this syndrome is not specific for children. We recently studied a patient in whom the diagnosis of adult onset Still\u27s disease was made

The Effect of Turfgrass Maintenance on Surface-Water Quality in a Suburban Watershed, Inner Blue Grass, Kentucky

Nutrients and pesticides applied during routine maintenance or establishment of turfgrass could result in nonpoint-source pollution. Nutrient and pesticide concentrations in water exiting a turfgrass management area in the Sinking Creek watershed, a suburban watershed in the Inner Blue Grass Region of central Kentucky, were monitored. This watershed was selected because it contains multiple land uses: agricultural, residential, and recreational (golf course). A survey was conducted to determine the extent to which lawn-care products are used in the residential sector of the watershed. For the golf-course portion, the golf-course superintendent recorded chemical application daily. Runoff from the golf course was sampled in 1993 where the stream exits the golf-course property. Sinking Creek was sampled upstream and downstream of the Tashamingo subdivision from April through October 1996 and January through February 1997. Weekly grab samples and three storm sample sequences (spring, summer, and fall) were analyzed to determine pesticide and nutrient concentrations. The analysis results revealed that few instances of pesticide concentrations in Sinking Creek exceeded minimum detectable levels and none exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water limits during the sampling period. The herbicide 2,4-D was detected in Sinking Creek at both sample locations. In addition to 2,4-D, the insecticide chlorpyrifos was detected at the golf-course exit. Increases in pesticides and nutrients in Sinking Creek coincided with spring application of turfgrass chemicals in the suburban portion of the watershed. Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus were low and similar to what would be expected for the land use

Evidence of Preferential Directions for Gravity Wave Propagation Due to Wind Filtering in the Middle Atmosphere

All-sky TV images of wave structure in the near-infrared hydroxyl (OH) nightglow emission were recorded over a 3-month period during May, June, and July 1988 from a high-altitude site at the Mountain Research Station (40.0° N, 105.6° W, 3050 m), near Nederland, Colorado. Well-defined, coherent wave patterns associated with the passage of short period (\u3c1 hour) gravity waves were observed on a total of 22 occasions. The wave motions exhibited similar spatial and temporal properties during each month but a distinct tendency for northward propagation (68% of the wave azimuths within ± 40.0° N), with some eastward motion in May and June, was observed throughout the campaign. Although it is theoretically well known that upward propagating gravity waves can be blocked at a critical layer produced by the interaction of the waves with the horizontal background wind, observational evidence of this phenomenon is rare. To investigate the possibility that the asymmetry in the wave propagation directions was caused by the critical layer, a model based on mean climatological background winds and numerical tidal wave modes valid for any mid-latitude site and time of the year was constructed to show the regions forbidden to upward gravity wave propagation from critical layer theory. These “blocking diagrams” which vary with height and time were constructed for the OH altitude (∼87 km) for the present paper. Comparison of the predicted (i.e., least restricted) and the observed directions of the wave motion show almost complete agreement. This suggests that middle atmospheric winds can play an important role in determining the flux and the azimuthal distribution of short-period waves reaching the upper atmosphere

A discursive psychology analysis of emotional support for men with colorectal cancer

Recent research into both masculinity and health, and the provision of social support for people with cancer has focussed upon the variations that may underlie broad assumptions about masculine health behaviour. The research reported here pursues this interest in variation by addressing the discursive properties of talk about emotional support, by men with colorectal cancer - an understudied group in the social support and cancer literature. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight men with colorectal cancer, and the transcripts analysed using an intensive discursive psychology approach. From this analysis two contrasting approaches to this group of men’s framing of emotional support in the context of cancer are described. First, talk about cancer was positioned as incompatible with preferred masculine identities. Second, social contact that affirms personal relationships was given value, subject to constraints arising from discourses concerning appropriate emotional expression. These results are discussed with reference to both the extant research literature on masculinity and health, and their clinical implications, particularly the advice on social support given to older male cancer patients, their families and friends

Item factor analysis: Current approaches and future directions.

The rationale underlying factor analysis applies to continuous and categorical variables alike; however, the models and estimation methods for continuous (i.e., interval or ratio scale) data are not appropriate for item-level data that are categorical in nature. The authors provide a targeted review and synthesis of the item factor analysis (IFA) estimation literature for ordered-categorical data (e.g., Likert-type response scales) with specific attention paid to the problems of estimating models with many items and many factors. Popular IFA models and estimation methods found in the structural equation modeling and item response theory literatures are presented. Following this presentation, recent developments in the estimation of IFA parameters (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) are discussed. The authors conclude with considerations for future research on IFA, simulated examples, and advice for applied researchers

Kinematics of Multigrid Monte Carlo

We study the kinematics of multigrid Monte Carlo algorithms by means of acceptance rates for nonlocal Metropolis update proposals. An approximation formula for acceptance rates is derived. We present a comparison of different coarse-to-fine interpolation schemes in free field theory, where the formula is exact. The predictions of the approximation formula for several interacting models are well confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. The following rule is found: For a critical model with fundamental Hamiltonian H(phi), absence of critical slowing down can only be expected if the expansion of in terms of the shift psi contains no relevant (mass) term. We also introduce a multigrid update procedure for nonabelian lattice gauge theory and study the acceptance rates for gauge group SU(2) in four dimensions.Comment: 28 pages, 8 ps-figures, DESY 92-09

Minimizing Unsatisfaction in Colourful Neighbourhoods

Colouring sparse graphs under various restrictions is a theoretical problem of significant practical relevance. Here we consider the problem of maximizing the number of different colours available at the nodes and their neighbourhoods, given a predetermined number of colours. In the analytical framework of a tree approximation, carried out at both zero and finite temperatures, solutions obtained by population dynamics give rise to estimates of the threshold connectivity for the incomplete to complete transition, which are consistent with those of existing algorithms. The nature of the transition as well as the validity of the tree approximation are investigated.Comment: 28 pages, 12 figures, substantially revised with additional explanatio