Tracking disease outbreaks from sparse data with Bayesian inference

The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods exist, they work best at coarse-grained national or state scales with abundant data, and struggle to accommodate the partial observability and sparse data common at finer scales (e.g., individual schools or towns). For example, case counts may be sparse when only a small fraction of infections are caught by a testing program. Or, whether an infected individual tests positive may depend on the kind of test and the point in time when they are tested. We propose a Bayesian framework which accommodates partial observability in a principled manner. Our model places a Gaussian process prior over the unknown reproduction number at each time step and models observations sampled from the distribution of a specific testing program. For example, our framework can accommodate a variety of kinds of tests (viral RNA, antibody, antigen, etc.) and sampling schemes (e.g., longitudinal or cross-sectional screening). Inference in this framework is complicated by the presence of tens or hundreds of thousands of discrete latent variables. To address this challenge, we propose an efficient stochastic variational inference method which relies on a novel gradient estimator for the variational objective. Experimental results for an example motivated by COVID-19 show that our method produces an accurate and well-calibrated posterior, while standard methods for estimating the reproduction number can fail badly

Children's biobehavioral reactivity to challenge predicts DNA methylation in adolescence and emerging adulthood.

A growing body of research has documented associations between adverse childhood environments and DNA methylation, highlighting epigenetic processes as potential mechanisms through which early external contexts influence health across the life course. The present study tested a complementary hypothesis: indicators of children's early internal, biological, and behavioral responses to stressful challenges may also be linked to stable patterns of DNA methylation later in life. Children's autonomic nervous system reactivity, temperament, and mental health symptoms were prospectively assessed from infancy through early childhood, and principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to derive composites of biological and behavioral reactivity. Buccal epithelial cells were collected from participants at 15 and 18 years of age. Findings revealed an association between early life biobehavioral inhibition/disinhibition and DNA methylation across many genes. Notably, reactive, inhibited children were found to have decreased DNA methylation of the DLX5 and IGF2 genes at both time points, as compared to non-reactive, disinhibited children. Results of the present study are provisional but suggest that the gene's profile of DNA methylation may constitute a biomarker of normative or potentially pathological differences in reactivity. Overall, findings provide a foundation for future research to explore relations among epigenetic processes and differences in both individual-level biobehavioral risk and qualities of the early, external childhood environment

A Preliminary Survey of Interprofessional Education

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/153603/1/jddj002203372006704tb04096x.pd

Concomitant occurrence of FXTAS and clinically defined sporadic inclusion body myositis: report of two cases.

This report describes unique presentations of inclusion body myositis (IBM) in two unrelated patients, one male and one female, with genetically and histologically confirmed fragile X-associated tremor/ataxia syndrome (FXTAS). We summarize overlapping symptoms between two disorders, clinical course, and histopathological analyses of the two patients with FXTAS and sporadic IBM, clinically defined per diagnostic criteria of the European Neuromuscular Centre. In case 1, a post-mortem analysis of available brain and muscle tissues is also described. Histopathological features (rimmed vacuoles) consistent with clinically defined IBM were detected in both presented cases. Postmortem testing in case 1 revealed the presence of an FMR1 premutation allele of 60 CGG repeats in both brain and skeletal muscle samples. Case 2 was a premutation carrier with 71 CGG repeats who had a son with FXS. Given that FXTAS is associated with immune-mediated disorders among premutation carriers, it is likely that the pathogeneses of IBM and FXTAS are linked. This is, to our knowledge, the first report of these two conditions presenting together, which expands our understanding of clinical symptoms and unusual presentations in patients with FXTAS. Following detection of a premutation allele of the FMR1 gene, FXTAS patients with severe muscle pain should be assessed for IBM

The biological embedding of early-life socioeconomic status and family adversity in children's genome-wide DNA methylation.

AimTo examine variation in child DNA methylation to assess its potential as a pathway for effects of childhood social adversity on health across the life course.Materials & methodsIn a diverse, prospective community sample of 178 kindergarten children, associations between three types of social experience and DNA methylation within buccal epithelial cells later in childhood were examined.ResultsFamily income, parental education and family psychosocial adversity each associated with increased or decreased DNA methylation (488, 354 and 102 sites, respectively) within a unique set of genomic CpG sites. Gene ontology analyses pointed to genes serving immune and developmental regulation functions.ConclusionFindings provided support for DNA methylation as a biomarker linking early-life social experiences with later life health in humans

Maternal fucosyltransferase 2 status affects the gut bifidobacterial communities of breastfed infants.

BackgroundIndividuals with inactive alleles of the fucosyltransferase 2 gene (FUT2; termed the 'secretor' gene) are common in many populations. Some members of the genus Bifidobacterium, common infant gut commensals, are known to consume 2'-fucosylated glycans found in the breast milk of secretor mothers. We investigated the effects of maternal secretor status on the developing infant microbiota with a special emphasis on bifidobacterial species abundance.ResultsOn average, bifidobacteria were established earlier and more often in infants fed by secretor mothers than in infants fed by non-secretor mothers. In secretor-fed infants, the relative abundance of the Bifidobacterium longum group was most strongly correlated with high percentages of the order Bifidobacteriales. Conversely, in non-secretor-fed infants, Bifidobacterium breve was positively correlated with Bifidobacteriales, while the B. longum group was negatively correlated. A higher percentage of bifidobacteria isolated from secretor-fed infants consumed 2'-fucosyllactose. Infant feces with high levels of bifidobacteria had lower milk oligosaccharide levels in the feces and higher amounts of lactate. Furthermore, feces containing different bifidobacterial species possessed differing amounts of oligosaccharides, suggesting differential consumption in situ.ConclusionsInfants fed by non-secretor mothers are delayed in the establishment of a bifidobacteria-laden microbiota. This delay may be due to difficulties in the infant acquiring a species of bifidobacteria able to consume the specific milk oligosaccharides delivered by the mother. This work provides mechanistic insight into how milk glycans enrich specific beneficial bacterial populations in infants and reveals clues for enhancing enrichment of bifidobacterial populations in at risk populations - such as premature infants

Hyperlipidaemia in HIV-infected patients on lopinavir/ritonavir monotherapy in resource-limited settings

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an emerging concern for HIV-infected patients. Hyperlipidemia is a risk factor for CVD and a complication of protease-inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy, but little is known about its incidence and risk factors in treated patients in resource-limited settings (RLS)

REDUCE-IT USA: Results From the 3146 Patients Randomized in the United States.

BackgroundSome trials have found that patients from the United States derive less benefit than patients enrolled outside the United States. This prespecified REDUCE-IT (Reduction of Cardiovascular Events with Icosapent Ethyl - Intervention Trial) subgroup analysis was conducted to determine the degree of benefit of icosapent ethyl in the United States.MethodsREDUCE-IT randomized 8179 statin-treated patients with qualifying triglycerides ≥135 and <500 mg/dL and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol >40 and ≤100 mg/dL and a history of atherosclerosis or diabetes mellitus to icosapent ethyl 4 g/d or placebo. The primary composite end point was cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina. The key secondary composite end point was cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. A hierarchy was prespecified for examination of individual and composite end points.ResultsA total of 3146 US patients (38.5% of the trial) were randomized and followed for a median of 4.9 years; 32.3% were women and 9.7% were Hispanic. The primary composite end point occurred in 24.7% of placebo-treated patients versus 18.2% of icosapent ethyl-treated patients (hazard ratio [HR], 0.69 [95% CI, 0.59-0.80]; P=0.000001); the key secondary composite end point occurred in 16.6% versus 12.1% (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.57-0.83]; P=0.00008). All prespecified hierarchical end points were meaningfully and significantly reduced, including cardiovascular death (6.7% to 4.7%; HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.49-0.90]; P=0.007), myocardial infarction (8.8% to 6.7%; HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.56-0.93]; P=0.01), stroke (4.1% to 2.6%; HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.43-0.93]; P=0.02), and all-cause mortality (9.8% to 7.2%; HR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.55-0.90]; P=0.004); for all-cause mortality in the US versus non-US patients, Pinteraction=0.02. Safety and tolerability findings were consistent with the full study cohort.ConclusionsWhereas the non-US subgroup showed significant reductions in the primary and key secondary end points, the US subgroup demonstrated particularly robust risk reductions across a variety of individual and composite end points, including all-cause mortality.Clinical trial registrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01492361

Reassessing the cardiac box: A comprehensive evaluation of the relationship between thoracic gunshot wounds and cardiac injury

Background: High energy missiles can cause cardiac injury regardless of entrance site. This study assesses the adequacy of the anatomic borders of the current “cardiac box” to predict cardiac injury. Methods: Retrospective autopsy review was performed to identify patients with penetrating torso gunshot wounds 2011-2013. Using a circumferential grid system around the thorax, logistic regression analysis was performed to detect differences in rates of cardiac injury from entrance/exit wounds in the “cardiac box” vs. the same for entrance/exit wounds outside the box. Analysis was repeated to identify regions to compare risk of cardiac injury between the current cardiac box and other regions of the thorax. Results: Over the study period, 263 patients (89% male, mean age = 34 years, median injuries/person = 2) sustained 735 wounds [80% gunshot wounds (GSWs], and 239 patients with 620 GSWs were identified for study. Of these, 95 (34%) injured the heart. Of the 257 GSWs entering the cardiac box, 31% caused cardiac injury while 21% GSWs outside the cardiac box (n = 67) penetrated the heart, suggesting that the current “cardiac box” is a poor predictor of cardiac injury relative to the thoracic non-"cardiac box" regions [Relative Risk (RR) 0.96; p=0.82]. The regions from the anterior to posterior midline of the left thorax provided the highest positive predictive value (41%) with high sensitivity (90%) while minimizing false positives making this region the most statistically significant discriminator of cardiac injury (RR 2.9; p=0.01). Conclusion: For GSWs, the current cardiac box is inadequate to discriminate whether a gunshot wound will cause a cardiac injury. As expected, entrance wounds nearest to the heart are the most likely to result in cardiac injury, but, from a clinical standpoint, it is best to think outside the “box” for GSWs to the thorax