Dynamic nonlinear pricing: Biased expectations, inattention, and bill shock

Recent research highlights the importance of biased expectations and inattention for nonlinear pricing in dynamic environments. Findings are: (1) Three-part tariffs, such as cellular service contracts, exploit consumer overconfidence. (2) Surprise penalty fees may be used to further exploit biased beliefs or alternatively to price discriminate more efficiently whenever consumers are inattentive. (3) Implementing the recent bill-shock agreement between cellular carriers and the FCC is predicted to harm rather than help consumers when endogenous price changes are taken into account

Firms write contracts to exploit consumer overconfidence

Competition may not protect consumers but simple market statistics tell us when policy can, writes Michael D. Grub

Sending Out an SMS: The Impact of Automatically Enrolling Consumers Into Overdraft Alerts

Incidental charges incurred by UK consumers on their Personal Current Account (PCA) are steep, especially for small amounts of unplanned borrowing and unpaid items. A recent policy mandates major UK banks to send consumers a text message alert of impending charges, allowing them to act before they incur a charge. Using a unique, large and detailed dataset covering the transactions of 1.5 million consumers across 6 banks, and by looking at large-scale automatic enrolment exercises carried out by two major banks, we estimate the effect of automatically enrolling consumers into these alerts. We find that automatic enrolment into alerts has large effects on charges: (i) automatic enrolment into unpaid item alerts (that inform customers of retry periods) reduces charges by 21-24% and (ii) automatic enrolment into unarranged overdraft alerts reduces charges by 25%. We also estimate average treatment effects for different types of consumers, grouped by their pre-alerts level of incidental charges (rare, occasional or heavy), and find that the benefits of automatic enrolment differ markedly between types of consumers. Those who rarely incur charges can avoid as much as half of charges thanks to alerts, whereas heavy users still incur substantial charges after automatic enrolment. We find strikingly similar patterns across the two banks, for both unpaid item and unarranged overdraft charges, providing reassurance that these findings are not specific to a particular customer base or firm implementation

Reproductive Success Across the Black-capped Chickadee (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina Chickadee (P. carolinensis) Hybrid Zone in Ohio

Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina Chickadees (P. carolinensis) hybridize in an east-west band from New Jersey to Kansas. Within the past century, the Ohio portion of this hybrid /one and the Carolina Chickadee range to the south have been moving northward, whereas the Black-capped Chickadee range has retracted. In Ohio, we characterized the genetic composition of the hybrid zone using five diagnostic molecular loci. Although there was no evidence of assortative mating in the center of the hybrid zone, we found a relative paucity of genetically intermediate breeding females as compared with breeding males. That suggests viability selection against female hybrids, in line with Haldane\u27s rule. On the basis of reproductive variables (number of nestlings, reproductive success), we found a decrease in productivity of breeding pairs in the hybrid zone that is significantly and positively related to their probability of producing homozygous offspring at each autosomal or sex-linked locus. We also found that the decrease in productivity was significantly and positively related to the genetic composition of the male of the pair {i.e. pure male chickadees more productive). These data strongly suggest that hybrids are at a selective disadvantage. Because the zone of reduced reproductive success was considerably narrower than the zone of introgression, our results demonstrate that genetic introgression is occurring in the face of substantial selection against hybrids

Recombination, Solvation and Reaction of CN Radicals Following Ultraviolet Photolysis of ICN in Organic Solvents

The fates of CN radicals produced by ultraviolet (UV) photolysis of ICN in various organic solvents have been examined by transient electronic and vibrational absorption spectroscopy (TEAS and TVAS). Near-UV and visible bands in the TEAS measurement enable direct observation of the CN radicals and their complexes with the solvent molecules. Complementary TVAS measurements probe the products of CN–radical reactions. Geminate recombination to form ICN and INC is a minor pathway on the 150 fs −1300 ps time scales of our experiments in the chosen organic solvents; nonetheless, large infrared transition dipole moments permit direct observation of INC that is vibrationally excited in the CN stretching mode. The time constants for INC vibrational cooling range from 30 ps in tetrahydrofuran (THF) to 1400 ps in more weakly interacting solvents such as chloroform. The major channel for CN removal in the organic solvents is reaction with solvent molecules, as revealed by depletion of solvent absorption bands and growth of product bands in the TVA spectra. HCN is a reaction product of hydrogen atom abstraction in most of the photoexcited solutions, and forms with vibrational excitation in both the C–H and CN stretching modes. The vibrational cooling rate of the CN stretch in HCN depends on the solvent, and follows the same trend as the cooling rate of the CN stretch in INC. However, in acetonitrile solution an additional reaction pathway produces C₃H₃N₂^• radicals, which release HCN on a much longer time scale

Reaction Dynamics of CN Radicals in Acetonitrile Solutions

The bimolecular reactions that follow 267 nm ultraviolet photolysis of ICN in acetonitrile solution have been studied using transient absorption spectroscopy on the picosecond time scale. Time-resolved electronic absorption spectroscopy (TEAS) in the ultraviolet and visible spectral regions observes rapid production and loss (with a decay time constant of 0.6 ± 0.1 ps) of the photolytically generated free CN radicals. Some of these radicals convert to a solvated form which decays with a lifetime of 8.5 ± 2.1 ps. Time-resolved vibrational absorption spectroscopy (TVAS) reveals that the free and solvated CN-radicals undergo geminate recombination with I atoms to make ICN and INC, H atom abstraction reactions, and addition reactions to solvent molecules to make C₃H₃N₂ radical species. These radical products have a characteristic absorption band at 2036 cm^–1 that shifts to 2010 cm^–1 when ICN is photolyzed in CD₃CN. The HCN yield is low, suggesting the addition pathway competes effectively with H atom abstraction from CH₃CN, but the delayed growth of the C₃H₃N₂ radical band is best described by reaction of solvated CN radicals through an unobserved intermediate species. Addition of methanol or tetrahydrofuran as a cosolute promotes H atom abstraction reactions that produce vibrationally hot HCN. The combination of TEAS and TVAS measurements shows that the rate-limiting process for production of ground-state HCN is vibrational cooling, the rate of which is accelerated by the presence of methanol or tetrahydrofuran

Intravesical rAd-IFNα/Syn3 for Patients With High-Grade, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin-Refractory or Relapsed Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: A Phase II Randomized Study.

Purpose Many patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) are either refractory to bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) treatment or may experience disease relapse. We assessed the efficacy and safety of recombinant adenovirus interferon alfa with Syn3 (rAd-IFNα/Syn3), a replication-deficient recombinant adenovirus gene transfer vector, for patients with high-grade (HG) BCG-refractory or relapsed NMIBC. Methods In this open-label, multicenter (n = 13), parallel-arm, phase II study ( ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01687244), 43 patients with HG BCG-refractory or relapsed NMIBC received intravesical rAd-IFNα/Syn3 (randomly assigned 1:1 to 1 × 10(11) viral particles (vp)/mL or 3 × 10(11) vp/mL). Patients who responded at months 3, 6, and 9 were retreated at months 4, 7, and 10. The primary end point was 12-month HG recurrence-free survival (RFS). All patients who received at least one dose were included in efficacy and safety analyses. Results Forty patients received rAd-IFNα/Syn3 (1 × 10(11) vp/mL, n = 21; 3 × 10(11) vp/mL, n = 19) between November 5, 2012, and April 8, 2015. Fourteen patients (35.0%; 90% CI, 22.6% to 49.2%) remained free of HG recurrence 12 months after initial treatment. Comparable 12-month HG RFS was noted for both doses. Of these 14 patients, two experienced recurrence at 21 and 28 months, respectively, after treatment initiation, and one died as a result of an upper tract tumor at 17 months without a recurrence. rAd-IFNα/Syn3 was well tolerated; no grade four or five adverse events (AEs) occurred, and no patient discontinued treatment because of an adverse event. The most frequently reported drug-related AEs were micturition urgency (n = 16; 40%), dysuria (n = 16; 40%), fatigue (n = 13; 32.5%), pollakiuria (n = 11; 28%), and hematuria and nocturia (n = 10 each; 25%). Conclusion rAd-IFNα/Syn3 was well tolerated. It demonstrated promising efficacy for patients with HG NMIBC after BCG therapy who were unable or unwilling to undergo radical cystectomy

Conditional Deletion of Dnaic1 in a Murine Model of Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia Causes Chronic Rhinosinusitis

Studies of primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) have been hampered by the lack of a suitable animal model because disruption of essential ciliary genes in mice results in a high incidence of lethal hydrocephalus. To develop a viable mouse model for long-term studies of PCD, we have generated a transgenic mouse line in which two conserved exons of the mouse intermediate dynein chain gene, Dnaic1, are flanked by loxP sites (Dnaic1flox/flox). Dnaic1 is the murine homolog of human DNAI1, which is mutated in approximately 10% of human PCD cases. These mice have been crossed with mice expressing a tamoxifen-inducible Cre recombinase (CreER). Treatment of adult Dnaic1flox/flox/CreER+/− mice with tamoxifen results in an almost complete deletion of Dnaic1 with no evidence of hydrocephalus. Treated animals have reduced levels of full-length Dnaic1 mRNA, and electron micrographs of cilia demonstrate a loss of outer dynein arm structures. In treated Dnaic1flox/flox/CreER+/− animals, mucociliary clearance (MCC) was reduced over time. After approximately 3 months, no MCC was observed in the nasopharynx, whereas in the trachea, MCC was observed for up to 6 months, likely reflecting a difference in the turnover of ciliated cells in these tissues. All treated animals developed severe rhinosinusitis, demonstrating the importance of MCC to the health of the upper airways. However, no evidence of lung disease was observed up to 11 months after Dnaic1 deletion, suggesting that other mechanisms are able to compensate for the lack of MCC in the lower airways of mice. This model will be useful for the study of the pathogenesis and treatment of PCD

Energy efficiency: what has research delivered in the last 40 years?

This article presents a critical assessment of 40 years of research that may be brought under the umbrella of energy efficiency, spanning different aggregations and domains-from individual producing and consuming agents to economy-wide effects to the role of innovation to the influence of policy. After 40 years of research, energy efficiency initiatives are generally perceived as highly effective. Innovation has contributed to lowering energy technology costs and increasing energy productivity. Energy efficiency programs in many cases have reduced energy use per unit of economic output and have been associated with net improvements in welfare, emission reductions, or both. Rebound effects at the macro level still warrant careful policy attention, as they may be nontrivial. Complexity of energy efficiency dynamics calls for further methodological and empirical advances, multidisciplinary approaches, and granular data at the service level for research in this field to be of greatest societal benefit