A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naive methods. H4 The relative advantage of causal over naive methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air travel market from 1963 through 1968. These hypotheses imply that econometric methods are more accurate for long range market forecasting than are the major alternatives, expert judgment and extrapolation, and that the relative superiority of econometric methods increases as the time span of the forecast increases.long-range market forecasting, forecasting methods, forecasting

Metrics for Quantifying Shareability in Transportation Networks: The Maximum Network Flow Overlap Problem

Cities around the world vary in terms of their transportation networks and travel demand patterns; these variations affect the viability of shared mobility services. This study proposes metrics to quantify the shareability of person-trips in a city, as a function of two inputs--the road network structure and origin-destination (OD) travel demand. The study first conceptualizes a fundamental shareability unit, 'flow overlap'. Flow overlap denotes, for a person-trip traversing a given path, the weighted (by link distance) average number of other trips sharing the links along the original person's path. The study extends this concept to the network level and formulates the Maximum Network Flow Overlap Problem (MNFLOP) to assign all OD trips to paths that maximize network-wide flow overlap. The study utilizes the MNFLOP output to calculate metrics of shareability at various levels of aggregation: person-trip level, OD level, origin or destination level, network level, and link level. The study applies the MNFLOP and associated shareability metrics to different OD demand scenarios in the Sioux Falls network. The computational results verify that (i) MNFLOP assigns person-trips to paths such that flow overlaps significantly increase relative to shortest path assignment, (ii) MNFLOP and its associated shareability metrics can meaningfully differentiate between different OD trip matrices in terms of shareability, and (iii) an MNFLOP-based metric can quantify demand dispersion--a metric of the directionality of demand--in addition to the magnitude of demand, for trips originating or terminating from a single node in the network. The paper also includes an extensive discussion of potential future uses of the MNFLOP and its associated shareability metrics

Guided Wave Propagation in Pipes Embedded in Concrete

Long-range guided wave testing (GWT) is routinely used for detection of corrosion defects in industrial pipelines. The application of the method to pipes embedded in concrete results in unpredictable test ranges due to different contact conditions between the pipe and the embedding concrete. When the coupling is intact GWT test ranges tend to be considerably reduced compared with pipes in air due to very high attenuation rates resulting from energy leakage into the embedding concrete; while in cases where the contact between the concrete and pipe is partial, e.g. due to the concrete cracking, the attenuation would be smaller, resulting in increased practical inspection ranges. In this study, we investigate the influence of the acoustic coupling between the pipe and concrete on the guided wave attenuation. Full-scale guided wave tests have been conducted on two 8”-dia., 6-meters long steel pipes fully- and partially-embedded in concrete over an axial length of 0.4-meters. Measurements of attenuation of the T(0,1) guided wave mode are performed over a frequency range of 10-35 kHz. Tests are compared with model predictions, explicit 3D finite-element (FE) and semi-analytical finite-element (SAFE) simulations. The attenuation is found to be very large in a fully-embedded pipe while much smaller in partially-embedded pipes. It is shown that the attenuation is not linearly proportional to the extent of the circumferential fraction embedded in concrete. This is due to mode conversion in which the ultrasonic energy is concentrated in modified guided wave modes in the free fraction of the pipe in the partly-embedded cases; model studies are being used to investigate the physics of this behavior. The extent of circumferential contact between the pipe and the concrete governs the propagation of the guided waves. For a pipe fully embedded in concrete practically no signal would be transmitted past a relatively short propagation distance due to leakage of energy. However, for a pipe partially embedded in concrete, measurable signal propagates

Effect of vitamin K2 on postural sway in older people who fall:a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: Vitamin K is thought to be involved in both bone health and maintenance of neuromuscular function. We tested the effect of vitamin K2 supplementation on postural sway, falls, healthcare costs, and indices of physical function in older people at risk of falls.DESIGN: Parallel-group double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial.SETTING: Fourteen primary care practices in Scotland, UK.PARTICIPANTS: A total of 95 community-dwelling participants aged 65 and older with at least two falls, or one injurious fall, in the previous year.INTERVENTION: Once/day placebo, 200 μg or 400 μg of oral vitamin K2 for 1 year.MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was anteroposterior sway measured using sway plates at 12 months, adjusted for baseline. Secondary outcomes included the Short Physical Performance Battery, Berg Balance Scale, Timed Up &amp; Go Test, quality of life, health and social care costs, falls, and adverse events.RESULTS: Mean participant age was 75 (standard deviation [SD] = 7) years. Overall, 58 of 95 (61%) were female; 77 of 95 (81%) attended the 12-month visit. No significant effect of either vitamin K2 dose was seen on the primary outcome of anteroposterior sway (200 μg vs placebo: -.19 cm [95% confidence interval [CI] -.68 to .30; P = .44]; 400 μg vs placebo: .17 cm [95% CI -.33 to .66; P = .50]; or 400 μg vs 200 μg: .36 cm [95% CI -.11 to .83; P = .14]). Adjusted falls rates were similar in each group. No significant treatment effects were seen for other measures of sway or secondary outcomes. Costs were higher in both vitamin K2 arms than in the placebo arm.CONCLUSION: Oral vitamin K2 supplementation did not improve postural sway or physical function in older people at risk of falls.</p

Trypanosoma brucei aquaglyceroporin 2 is a high-affinity transporter for pentamidine and melaminophenyl arsenic drugs and the main genetic determinant of resistance to these drugs.

OBJECTIVES: Trypanosoma brucei drug transporters include the TbAT1/P2 aminopurine transporter and the high-affinity pentamidine transporter (HAPT1), but the genetic identity of HAPT1 is unknown. We recently reported that loss of T. brucei aquaglyceroporin 2 (TbAQP2) caused melarsoprol/pentamidine cross-resistance (MPXR) in these parasites and the current study aims to delineate the mechanism by which this occurs. METHODS: The TbAQP2 loci of isogenic pairs of drug-susceptible and MPXR strains of T. brucei subspecies were sequenced. Drug susceptibility profiles of trypanosome strains were correlated with expression of mutated TbAQP2 alleles. Pentamidine transport was studied in T. brucei subspecies expressing TbAQP2 variants. RESULTS: All MPXR strains examined contained TbAQP2 deletions or rearrangements, regardless of whether the strains were originally adapted in vitro or in vivo to arsenicals or to pentamidine. The MPXR strains and AQP2 knockout strains had lost HAPT1 activity. Reintroduction of TbAQP2 in MPXR trypanosomes restored susceptibility to the drugs and reinstated HAPT1 activity, but did not change the activity of TbAT1/P2. Expression of TbAQP2 sensitized Leishmania mexicana promastigotes 40-fold to pentamidine and >1000-fold to melaminophenyl arsenicals and induced a high-affinity pentamidine transport activity indistinguishable from HAPT1 by Km and inhibitor profile. Grafting the TbAQP2 selectivity filter amino acid residues onto a chimeric allele of AQP2 and AQP3 partly restored susceptibility to pentamidine and an arsenical. CONCLUSIONS: TbAQP2 mediates high-affinity uptake of pentamidine and melaminophenyl arsenicals in trypanosomes and TbAQP2 encodes the previously reported HAPT1 activity. This finding establishes TbAQP2 as an important drug transporter

Homicide and geographic access to gun dealers in the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Firearms are the most commonly used weapon to commit homicide in the U.S. Virtually all firearms enter the public marketplace through a federal firearms licensee (FFL): a store or individual licensed by the federal government to sell firearms. Whether FFLs contribute to gun-related homicide in areas where they are located, in which case FFLs may be a homicide risk factor that can be modified, is not known.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Annual county-level data (1993–1999) on gun homicide rates and rates of FFLs per capita were analyzed using negative binomial regression controlling for socio-demographic characteristics. Models were run to evaluate whether the relation between rates of FFLs and rates of gun homicide varied over the study period and across counties according to their level of urbanism (defined by four groupings, as below). Also, rates of FFLs were compared against FS/S – which is the proportion of suicides committed by firearm and is thought to be a good proxy for firearm availability in a region – to help evaluate how well the FFL variable is serving as a way to proxy firearm availability in each of the county types of interest.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In major cities, gun homicide rates were higher where FFLs were more prevalent (rate ratio [RR] = 1.70, 95% CI 1.03–2.81). This association increased (p < 0.01) from 1993 (RR = 1.69) to 1999 (RR = 12.72), due likely to federal reforms that eliminated low-volume dealers, making FFL prevalence a more accurate exposure measure over time. No association was found in small towns. In other cities and in suburbs, gun homicide rates were significantly lower where FFLs were more prevalent, with associations that did not change over the years of the study period. FFL prevalence was correlated strongly (positively) with FS/S in major cities only, suggesting that the findings for how FFL prevalence relates to gun homicide may be valid for the findings pertaining to major cities but not to counties of other types.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Modification of FFLs through federal, state, and local regulation may be a feasible intervention to reduce gun homicide in major cities.</p

Impact of Radiotherapy, Chemotherapy and Surgery in Multimodal Treatment of Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer

Objectives: It was the aim of this study to assess our institutional experience with definitive chemoradiation (CRT) versus induction chemotherapy followed by CRT with or without surgery (C-CRT/S) in esophageal cancer. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 129 institutional patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer who had been treated by either CRT in analogy to the RTOG 8501 trial (n = 78) or C-CRT/S (n = 51). Results: The median, 2-and 5-year overall survival (OS) of the entire collective was 17.6 months, 42 and 24%, respectively, without a significant difference between the CRT and C-CRT/S groups. In C-CRT/S patients, surgery statistically improved the locoregional control (LRC) rates (2-year LRC 73.6 vs. 21.2%; p = 0.003); however, this was translated only into a trend towards improved OS (p = 0.084). The impact of escalated radiation doses (>= 60.0 vs. <60.0 Gy) on LRC was detectable only in T1-3 N0-1 M0 patients of the CRT group (2-year LRC 77.8 vs. 42.3%; p = 0.036). Conclusion: Definitive CRT and a trimodality approach including surgery (C-CRT/S) had a comparable outcome in this unselected patient collective. Surgery and higher radiation doses improve LRC rates in subgroups of patients, respectively, but without effect on OS. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Modelling Vector Transmission and Epidemiology of Co-Infecting Plant Viruses.

Co-infection of plant hosts by two or more viruses is common in agricultural crops and natural plant communities. A variety of models have been used to investigate the dynamics of co-infection which track only the disease status of infected and co-infected plants, and which do not explicitly track the density of inoculative vectors. Much less attention has been paid to the role of vector transmission in co-infection, that is, acquisition and inoculation and their synergistic and antagonistic interactions. In this investigation, a general epidemiological model is formulated for one vector species and one plant species with potential co-infection in the host plant by two viruses. The basic reproduction number provides conditions for successful invasion of a single virus. We derive a new invasion threshold which provides conditions for successful invasion of a second virus. These two thresholds highlight some key epidemiological parameters important in vector transmission. To illustrate the flexibility of our model, we examine numerically two special cases of viral invasion. In the first case, one virus species depends on an autonomous virus for its successful transmission and in the second case, both viruses are unable to invade alone but can co-infect the host plant when prevalence is high

Interfacial Tensions near Critical Endpoints: Experimental Checks of EdGF Theory

Predictions of the extended de Gennes-Fisher local-functional theory for the universal scaling functions of interfacial tensions near critical endpoints are compared with experimental data. Various observations of the binary mixture isobutyric acid $+$ water are correlated to facilitate an analysis of the experiments of Nagarajan, Webb and Widom who observed the vapor-liquid interfacial tension as a function of {\it both} temperature and density. Antonow's rule is confirmed and, with the aid of previously studied {\it universal amplitude ratios}, the crucial analytic ``background'' contribution to the surface tension near the endpoint is estimated. The residual singular behavior thus uncovered is consistent with the theoretical scaling predictions and confirms the expected lack of symmetry in $(T-T_c)$. A searching test of theory, however, demands more precise and extensive experiments; furthermore, the analysis highlights, a previously noted but surprising, three-fold discrepancy in the magnitude of the surface tension of isobutyric acid $+$ water relative to other systems.Comment: 6 figure

Targeting of MuLV Gag to the plasma membrane is mediated by PI(4,5)P2 and PhosphatidylSerine

Oral presentationInternational audienceMembrane targeting by the modern human immunodeficiency viruses is dependent on the plasma membrane-located phospholipid PI(4,5)P2. In order to determine if evolutionarily distant retroviruses are targeted by a similar mechanism, we generated mutant Gag constructs in the matrix (MA) domain of the Murine Leukemia Virus (MuLV) and examined their binding to membrane models and phenotypes in cell culture. Mutations in the MA polybasic region altered Gag localization, membrane binding and virion production. In addition, we show that MA binds with good affinity to all the phosphatidylinositol phosphates but displays a strong specificity for PI(4,5)P2 only if enhanced by phophatidylserine. Virus production was strongly impaired by PI(4,5)P2 depletion under 5ptaseIV overexpression. Our results suggest that the N-terminal polybasic region of MA is essential for Gag targeting to the plasma membrane and Gag cellular trafficking. The binding of the MA domain to PI(4,5)P2 appears to be a conserved feature among retroviruses, despite the fact that the MuLV-MA domain is structurally different from that of HIV-1 and -2 and lacks a readily identifiable PI(4,5)P2 binding cleft