Structural analysis and forecasts of commodity imports using cross-section relationships

The purpose of this paper is to propose alternative specifications which can be used for predicting imports by commodities for a large number of countries. Both "variety" and "scale" hypothesis have been made use of in suggesting simple cross-section relationships which can be easily used for predicting imports by commodities for any country of the world. Indeed, since detailed country characteristics are not taken into consideration in per capita income and population, it is likely that consistent under or overpredictions may result for a country when the estimated relationship is used. The extent of under or overprediction is reduced by using the variable elasticity formulation of the import demand function. Our estimates of cross-section relationships show remarkable stability in structural coefficients for the period 1967-1973 on the two-digit S.I.T.C. data. A set of eight different relationships is estimated and using 1970 cross-section relationships forecasts for 1973 and 1980 are given. Forecasts of imports of 45 commodities for 37 countries were derived and compared with the corresponding actual 1973 figures. The root mean square error predictive criterion suggests that per capita income and population in a constant elasticity form performs reasonably well

Cognitive load and mental rotation : structuring orthographic projection for learning and problem solving

Cognitive load theory was used to generate a series of three experiments to investigate the effects of various worked example formats on learning orthographic projection. Experiments 1 and 2 investigated the benefits of presenting problems, conventional worked examples incorporating the final 2-D and 3-D representations only, and modified worked examples with several intermediate stages of rotation between the 2-D and 3-D representations. Modified worked examples proved superior to conventional worked examples without intermediate stages while conventional worked examples were, in turn, superior to problems. Experiment 3 investigated the consequences of varying the number and location of intermediate stages in the rotation trajectory and found three stages to be superior to one. A single intermediate stage was superior when nearer the 2-D than the 3-D end of the trajectory. It was concluded that (a) orthographic projection is learned best using worked examples with several intermediate stages and that (b) a linear relation between angle of rotation and problem difficulty did not hold for orthographic projection material. Cognitive load theory could be used to suggest the ideal location of the intermediate stages

DO THE PHASES OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE DIE OF OLD AGE?

The paper re-examines the issue of duration dependence in the Australian classical and growth business cycles in light of the somewhat surprising results obtained recently by Cashin and Ouliaris (2004). In so doing the authors use the multinomial logit regime switching modelling approach of Layton and Smith (2003). The paper also represents an extension of the earlier work on the issue undertaken by Bodman (1998); the key extensions being that the issue is framed within an explicit established business cycle chronology, a leading index is also included within the analysis, and the growth cycle, in addition to the classical cycle, is considered. Strong evidence of duration dependence is found for periods of recession within the classical cycle and for both phases of the growth cycle. Moderate evidence of duration dependency is also found for periods of classical cycle expansion. However, the evidence in this regard is significantly reduced once movements in the leading index are included in the analysis with its movements exhibiting strong power in predicting the termination of classical business cycle expansions. For growth cycles, duration dependence symmetry is found across both phases of the cycle. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University 2005..

Genital immunization of heifers with a glycoprotein Edeleted, recombinant bovine herpesvirus 1 strain confers protection upon challenge with a virulent isolate Imunização genital de bezerras com uma cepa recombinante do herpesvírus bovino tipo 1 defectiva na glicoproteína E confere proteção frente a desafio com um isolado virulento

Venereal infection of seronegative heifers and cows with bovine herpesvirus type 1.2 (BoHV-1.2) frequently results in vulvovaginitis and transient infertility. Parenteral immunization with inactivated or modified live BoHV-1 vaccines often fails in conferring protection upon genital challenge. We herein report an evaluation of the immune response and protection conferred by genital vaccination of heifers with a glycoprotein E-deleted recombinant virus (SV265gE-). A group of six seronegative heifers was vaccinated with SV265gE- (0,2mL containing 10(6.9)TCID50) in the vulva submucosa (group IV); four heifers were vaccinated intramuscularly (group IM, 1mL containing 10(7.6)TCID50) and four heifers remained as non-vaccinated controls. Heifers vaccinated IV developed mild, transient local edema and hyperemia and shed low amounts of virus for a few days after vaccination, yet a sentinel heifer maintained in close contact did not seroconvert. Attempts to reactivate the vaccine virus in two IV vaccinated heifers by intravenous administration of dexamethasone (0.5mg/kg) at day 70 pv failed since no virus shedding, recrudescence of genital signs or seroconversion were observed. At day 70 pv, all vaccinated and control heifers were challenged by genital inoculation of a highly virulent BoHV-1.2 isolate (SV56/90, 10(7.1)TCID50/animal). After challenge, virus shedding was detected in genital secretions of control animals for 8.2 days (8-9); in the IM group for 6.2 days (4-8 days) and during 5.2 days (5-6 days) in the IV group. Control non-vaccinated heifers developed moderate (2/4) or severe (2/4) vulvovaginitis lasting 9 to 13 days (x: 10.7 days). The disease was characterized by vulvar edema, vulvo-vestibular congestion, vesicles progressing to coalescence and erosions, fibrino-necrotic plaques and fibrinopurulent exudate. IM vaccinated heifers developed mild (1/3) or moderate (3/4) genital lesions, lasting 10 to 12 days (x: 10.7 days); and IV vaccinated heifers developed mild and transient vulvovaginitis (3/4) or mild to moderate genital lesions (1/4). In the IV group, the clinical signs lasted 4 to 8 days (x: 5.5 days). Clinical examination of the animals after challenge revealed that vaccination by both routes conferred some degree of protection, yet IV vaccination was clearly more effective in reducing the severity and duration of clinical disease. Furthermore, IV vaccination reduced the period of virus shedding in comparison with both groups. Taken together, these results demonstrate that SV265gE- is sufficiently attenuated upon IV vaccination in a low-titer dosis, is not readily reactivated after corticosteroid treatment and lastly, and more importantly, confers local protection upon challenge with a high titer of a virulent heterologous BoHV-1 isolate. Therefore, the use of this recombinant for genital immunization may be considered for prevention of BoHV-1-associated genital disease in the field.<br>A infecção genital de novilhas ou vacas soronegativas pelo herpesvírus bovino tipo 1.2 (BoHV-1.2) pode resultar em vulvovaginite e infertilidade temporária. As vacinas atenuadas ou inativadas administradas pela via parenteral freqüentemente conferem proteção incompleta frente a desafio pela via genital. Este estudo relata uma avaliação da resposta imunológica e proteção conferida pela vacinação genital de bezerras soronegativas com uma cepa recombinante do BoHV-1 defectiva na glicoproteína E (SV265gE-). Um grupo de seis bezerras foi vacinado com a cepa SV265gE(0,2mL contendo 10(6,9)TCID50) na submucosa da vulva (grupo IV); quatro bezerras foram vacinadas pela via intramuscular (IM; dose 10(7,6)TCID50) e quatro bezerras permaneceram como controles não-vacinadas. As bezerras vacinadas pela via IV apresentaram edema e hiperemia leve e transitório na vulva e excretaram vírus em títulos baixos por alguns dias após a vacinação, porém uma bezerra soronegativa mantida em contato não soroconverteu. Administração de dexametasona pela via intravenosa no dia 70pv (0,5mg/kg) em duas bezerras vacinadas pela via IV não resultou em excreção viral, recrudescência clínica ou soroconversão. No dia 70pv, as bezerras vacinadas e as controle foram desafiadas pela inoculação genital da cepa de BoHV-1.2 altamente virulenta SV56/90 (10(7.1)TCID50/animal). Após o desafio, excreção viral nas secreções genitais das bezerras controle foi detectada por 8,2 dias (8-9); no grupo IM durante 6,2 dias (4-8 dias) e durante 5,2 dias (5-6) nas bezerras do grupo IN. As bezerras do grupo controle desenvolveram vulvovaginite moderada (2/4) a severa (2/4) que duraram entre 9 e 13 dias (x: 10,7 dias). A doença se caracterizou por edema vulvar, congestão vulvo-vestibular, formação de vesículas/pústulas que coalesceram, erosões, placas fibrino-necróticas e exsudato fibrino-purulento. As bezerras do grupo IM desenvolveram lesões genitais leves (1/3) a moderadas (3/4), com duração de 10 a 12 dias (x: 10,7 dias). No grupo IV, as bezerras desenvolveram vulvovaginite leve e transitória (3/4) ou lesões moderadas (1/4), com duração de 4 a 8 dias (x: 5,5 dias). O exame clínico desses animais após o desafio demonstrou que a vacinação, independentemente da via de administração, conferiu proteção e que, a vacinação IV mostrou-se mais efetiva na redução da severidade e duração da doença clínica. A vacinação IV também determinou uma redução significativa no período de excreção viral após desafio, em comparação com os grupos controle e IM. Esses resultados demonstram que a cepa SV265gE- administrada pela via IV confere proteção satisfatória frente a desafio local com um isolado heterólogo de BoHV-1 altamente virulento. Além disso, a cepa vacinal é atenuada para vacinação IV em baixos títulos e não é reativada facilmente após administração de dexametasona. Assim, a utilização da cepa recombinante para imunização genital pode se constituir em alternativa para prevenir a infecção e doença reprodutiva associada com o BoHV-1