Shared Decision Making in mental health care using Routine Outcome Monitoring as a source of information: a cluster randomised controlled trial

FSW - Self-regulation models for health behavior and psychopathology - ou

Punctuated equilibria and 1/f noise in a biological coevolution model with individual-based dynamics

We present a study by linear stability analysis and large-scale Monte Carlo simulations of a simple model of biological coevolution. Selection is provided through a reproduction probability that contains quenched, random interspecies interactions, while genetic variation is provided through a low mutation rate. Both selection and mutation act on individual organisms. Consistent with some current theories of macroevolutionary dynamics, the model displays intermittent, statistically self-similar behavior with punctuated equilibria. The probability density for the lifetimes of ecological communities is well approximated by a power law with exponent near -2, and the corresponding power spectral densities show 1/f noise (flicker noise) over several decades. The long-lived communities (quasi-steady states) consist of a relatively small number of mutualistically interacting species, and they are surrounded by a ``protection zone'' of closely related genotypes that have a very low probability of invading the resident community. The extent of the protection zone affects the stability of the community in a way analogous to the height of the free-energy barrier surrounding a metastable state in a physical system. Measures of biological diversity are on average stationary with no discernible trends, even over our very long simulation runs of approximately 3.4x10^7 generations.Comment: 20 pages RevTex. Minor revisions consistent with published versio

Impact of liver tumour burden, alkaline phosphatase elevation, and target lesion size on treatment outcomes with 177Lu-Dotatate: an analysis of the NETTER-1 study

Purpose: To assess the impact of baseline liver tumour burden, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) elevation, and target lesion size on treatment outcomes with 177Lu-Dotatate. Methods: In the phase 3 NETTER-1 trial, patients with advanced, progressive midgut neuroendocrine tumours (NET) were randomised to 177Lu-Dotatate (every 8 weeks, four cycles) plus octreotide long-acting release (LAR) or to octreotide LAR 60 mg. Primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Analyses of PFS by baseline factors, including liver tumour burden, ALP elevation, and target lesion size, were performed using Kaplan-Meier estimates; hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% CIs were estimated using Cox regression. Results: Significantly prolonged median PFS occurred with 177Lu-Dotatate versus octreotide LAR 60 mg in patients with low ( 50%) liver tumour burden (HR 0.187, 0.216, 0.145), and normal or elevated ALP (HR 0.153, 0.177), and in the presence or absence of a large target lesion (diameter > 30 mm; HR, 0.213, 0.063). Within the 177Lu-Dotatate arm, no significant difference in PFS was observed amongst patients with low/moderate/high liver tumour burden (P = 0.7225) or with normal/elevated baseline ALP (P = 0.3532), but absence of a large target lesion was associated with improved PFS (P = 0.0222). Grade 3 and 4 liver function abnormalities were rare and did not appear to be associated with high baseline liver tumour burden. Conclusions: 177Lu-Dotatate demonstrated significant prolongation in PFS versus high-dose octreotide LAR in patients with advanced, progressive midgut NET, regardless of baseline liver tumour burden, elevated ALP, or the presence of a large target lesion. Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01578239, EudraCT: 2011-005049-11

Dense Stellar Populations: Initial Conditions

This chapter is based on four lectures given at the Cambridge N-body school "Cambody". The material covered includes the IMF, the 6D structure of dense clusters, residual gas expulsion and the initial binary population. It is aimed at those needing to initialise stellar populations for a variety of purposes (N-body experiments, stellar population synthesis).Comment: 85 pages. To appear in The Cambridge N-body Lectures, Sverre Aarseth, Christopher Tout, Rosemary Mardling (eds), Lecture Notes in Physics Series, Springer Verla

Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan

Researching COVID to enhance recovery (RECOVER) pregnancy study: Rationale, objectives and design

Importance Pregnancy induces unique physiologic changes to the immune response and hormonal changes leading to plausible differences in the risk of developing post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), or Long COVID. Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy may also have long-term ramifications for exposed offspring, and it is critical to evaluate the health outcomes of exposed children. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Multi-site Observational Study of PASC aims to evaluate the long-term sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection in various populations. RECOVER-Pregnancy was designed specifically to address long-term outcomes in maternal-child dyads. Methods RECOVER-Pregnancy cohort is a combined prospective and retrospective cohort that proposes to enroll 2,300 individuals with a pregnancy during the COVID-19 pandemic and their offspring exposed and unexposed in utero, including single and multiple gestations. Enrollment will occur both in person at 27 sites through the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institutes of Health Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network and remotely through national recruitment by the study team at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF). Adults with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy are eligible for enrollment in the pregnancy cohort and will follow the protocol for RECOVER-Adult including validated screening tools, laboratory analyses and symptom questionnaires followed by more in-depth phenotyping of PASC on a subset of the overall cohort. Offspring exposed and unexposed in utero to SARS-CoV-2 maternal infection will undergo screening tests for neurodevelopment and other health outcomes at 12, 18, 24, 36 and 48 months of age. Blood specimens will be collected at 24 months of age for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, storage and anticipated later analyses proposed by RECOVER and other investigators. Discussion RECOVER-Pregnancy will address whether having SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy modifies the risk factors, prevalence, and phenotype of PASC. The pregnancy cohort will also establish whether there are increased risks of adverse long-term outcomes among children exposed in utero

Clinical characteristics of women captured by extending the definition of severe postpartum haemorrhage with 'refractoriness to treatment': a cohort study

Background: The absence of a uniform and clinically relevant definition of severe postpartum haemorrhage hampers comparative studies and optimization of clinical management. The concept of persistent postpartum haemorrhage, based on refractoriness to initial first-line treatment, was proposed as an alternative to common definitions that are either based on estimations of blood loss or transfused units of packed red blood cells (RBC). We compared characteristics and outcomes of women with severe postpartum haemorrhage captured by these three types of definitions. Methods: In this large retrospective cohort study in 61 hospitals in the Netherlands we included 1391 consecutive women with postpartum haemorrhage who received either ≥4 units of RBC or a multicomponent transfusion. Clinical characteristics and outcomes of women with severe postpartum haemorrhage defined as persistent postpartum haemorrhage were compared to definitions based on estimated blood loss or transfused units of RBC within 24 h following birth. Adverse maternal outcome was a composite of maternal mortality, hysterectomy, arterial embolisation and intensive care unit admission. Results: One thousand two hundred sixty out of 1391 women (90.6%) with postpartum haemorrhage fulfilled the definition of persistent postpartum haemorrhage. The majority, 820/1260 (65.1%), fulfilled this definition within 1 h following birth, compared to 819/1391 (58.7%) applying the definition of ≥1 L blood loss and 37/845 (4.4%) applying the definition of ≥4 units of RBC. The definition persistent postpartum haemorrhage captured 430/471 adverse maternal outcomes (91.3%), compared to 471/471 (100%) for ≥1 L blood loss and 383/471 (81.3%) for ≥4 units of RBC. Persistent postpartum haemorrhage did not capture all adverse outcomes because of missing data on timing of initial, first-line treatment. Conclusion: The definition persistent postpartum haemo