Climate vulnerability assessment of the Espeletia Complex on Páramo Sky Islands in the Northern Andes

Some of the largest impacts of climate change are expected in the environmentally heterogeneous and species rich high mountain ecosystems. Among those, the Neotropical alpine grassland above the tree line (c. 2,800 m), known as Páramo, is the fastest evolving biodiversity hotspot on earth, and one of the most threatened. Yet, predicting climate responses of typically slow-growing, long-lived plant linages in this unique high mountain ecosystem remains challenging. Here we coupled climate sensitivity modeling and adaptive potential inferences to efficiently assess climate vulnerability of Espeletia, Páramo’s most iconic, predominant and rapidly evolving plant complex. In order to estimate climate sensitivity, we first modeled the distribution of 28 Espeletia taxa under a niche conservatism scenario using altitude and five current (1970–2000) and future (2050 RCP 8.5) bioclimatic variables across 36 different Páramo complexes in the northern Andes (49% of the world’s Páramo area). As an alternative to range shifts via migration, we also computed the adaptive capacity of these Páramo complexes by considering three enhancing factors of the biodiversity’s adaptive potential as well as three environmental limiting factors of the populations’ plastic response. These predictors showed that diverse Páramos in the Eastern Cordillera were more vulnerable likely because the counteracting effects of the adaptive potential (r = −0.93 ± 0.01) were not sufficient to buffer higher distribution losses (r = 0.39 ± 0.01). Agriculture (r = −0.48 ± 0.01), mining (r = −0.36 ± 0.01), and rural population density (r = −0.23 ± 0.01) also weakened the adaptive capacity. These results speak for a limited persistence via migration in the short-term responses of Espeletia to climate change, even though the past population dynamics in concert with glacial cycling is indicative of a predominant role of range shifts. Furthermore, changing climate, together with a general inability to adapt, may eventually constrain the rapid diversification in the Espeletia complex. Our integrative modeling illustrates how future climate may impact plant populations in a mega diverse and highly threatened ecosystem such as the Páramo, and encourages carrying out similar estimates in diverse plant complexes across other high mountain and island-like ecosystems

Enfoques teóricos para la evaluación de la eficiencia y eficacia en el primer nivel de atención médica de los servicios de salud del sector público

Se muestran diferentes enfoques teóricos sobre los servicios públicos y particularmente los de salud según las definiciones de organismos internacionales. Se particularizaen el primer nivel de atención médica, caracterizando sus atributos básicos, tales como: accesibilidad, coordinación, integralidad y longitudinalidad. La eficiencia y eficacia son analizadas desde diferentes perspectivas; pero con énfasis en la adecuada utilización de los recursos y el cumplimiento de los objetivos. Se aborda además laevaluación como herramienta para la toma de decisiones

Theoretical approaches of the efficiency, efficacy and quality in the first level of primary health care of health in Costa Rica

The work is the continuity of studies on different theoretical approaches on public health services in the first level of medical care. Código JEL: I18  El trabajo es la continuidad de estudios sobre diferentes enfoques teóricos de los servicios públicos de salud en el primer nivel de atención médica.  Código JEL: I18 Política pública; Regulación; Sanidad públic

Applying agroclimatic seasonal forecasts to improve rainfed maize agronomic management in Colombia

Climate variability affects crop production in multiple and often complex ways. The development and use hybrid crops with greater productivity and tolerance to climate shocks is one of the approaches to climate adaptation and agricultural intensification. Since hybrid crops are more expensive for the producer, risk management is of paramount importance. Here, we pose that there is high potential for the Colombian maize sector to use crop-specific climate services for risk reduction. We used the CERES-Maize crop model connected to seasonal climate forecasts developed via Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) across key maize growing areas in Colombia to assess the performance of a maize-specific agroclimatic forecast to inform two key decisions, namely, the choice of sowing dates and genotypes. We find that the agroclimatic models perform well at discriminating yield categories (above, below, and normal) with discrimination capacity of up to 70–80 % for the ‘below normal’ and ‘above + below normal’ categories. Consistent with this, agroclimatic forecasts typically predict the optimal planting date with an error of 3 pentads or less. They also predict the optimal choice of genotype correctly around 50–70 % of the time depending on the site or season of interest. Notably, we identify specific cases in which the agroclimatic forecast is misleading but argue that the overall value of the forecasts outweighs these cases. Future work should focus on expanding the scope of the agroclimatic prediction to include other relevant farming decisions that are influenced by climate, and on the improvement of climate forecast performance

Hand disinfection chamber using ozone with graphical display interface and body temperature measurement

En el siguiente documento se describe el desarrollo de una herramienta de desinfección de manos utilizando ozono con medición de temperatura corporal para ser utilizada en la Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas - Facultad Tecnológica (UDFJC) con el fin de mantener una higiene adecuada, mitigando la propagación de virus y bacterias dentro de la Facultad. Este prototipo se compone de tres partes fundamentales: La primera es un generador de ozono, utilizando el sensor de ozono MQ131 que permite identificar la presencia del gas. La segunda parte consiste en un sistema de monitoreo de la temperatura corporal usando el sensor MLX90614. Este sistema consta, además, de una pantalla LCD que permite visualizar los datos y comandos de voz utilizando el módulo DFplayer Mini que da una alerta de acuerdo con la temperatura obtenida. En la tercera parte se tiene la interfaz de usuario, realizada en el entorno de programación LabVIEW, donde se visualizan las temperaturas medidas durante el día, en esta se genera una base de datos en Excel que permite almacenar la información del número de casos con fiebre y con temperatura normal. Simultáneamente se obtiene una gráfica para observar el comportamiento de la temperatura respecto al número de personas a las que se les tomó la medición. En el documento se muestran también los resultados obtenidos, la aplicación y el funcionamiento final del prototipo.The following document describes the development of a hand disinfection tool using ozone with body temperature measurement to be used at the Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas - Facultad Tecnológica (UDFJC) to maintain proper hygiene, mitigating the spread of viruses and bacteria within the faculty. This prototype is composed of three fundamental parts: The first is an ozone generator, using the MQ131 ozone sensor to identify the presence of the gas. The second part consists of a body temperature monitoring system using the MLX90614 sensor; this system also consists of an LCD screen to display the data and voice commands using the DFplayer Mini module that gives an alert according to the temperature obtained. In the third part there is the user interface made in the LabVIEW programming environment where the temperatures measured during the day are displayed; in this an Excel database is generated that allows storing the information of the number of cases with fever and with normal temperature; together a graph is obtained to observe the behavior of the temperature with respect to the number of people to whom the measurement was taken. The document also shows the results obtained, the application and the final operation of the prototype

Assessing the Effectiveness of the Use of the InVEST Annual Water Yield Model for the Rivers of Colombia: A Case Study of the Meta River Basin

This paper presents the results of one of the hydrological models, the InVEST “Annual Water Yield” (InVEST–AWY), applied to the Meta River basin in Colombia, which covers an area of 113,981 km². The study evaluates the performance of the model in different subbasins of the Meta River basin. The model’s accuracy was assessed using different statistical measures, including Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficients for the calibration (rcal) and validation (rval) periods. The overall performance of the model in the Meta River basin is relatively poor as indicated by the low NSE value of 0.07 and high RMSE value of 1071.61. In addition, the model explains only a 7% of the variance in the observed data. The sensitivity analysis revealed that a 30% reduction in crop coefficient (Kc) values would result in a 10.7% decrease in water yield. The model estimated, for example, the annual average water yield of the river in 2018 as 1.98 × 1011 m3/year or 6273.4 m3/s, which is 1.3% lower than the reported value. The upper Meta River subbasin shows the highest NSE value (0.49), indicating a good result between observed and simulated water discharge. In contrast, the South Cravo River subbasin shows a negative NSE value of −1.29, indicating poor model performance. The Yucao River subbasin and the upper Casanare River subbasin also show lower NSE values compared to the upper Meta River subbasin, indicating less accurate model performance in these subbasins. The correlation coefficients in calibration (rcal) and validation (rval) for the upper Meta River, Yucao River, South Cravo River, and upper Casanare River subbasins were 0.79 and 0.83, 0.4 and 0.22, 0.5 and −0.25, and 0 and 0.18, respectively. These results provide useful insights into the limitations for the proper use of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia. This study is the first to use the InVEST–AWY model on a large scale in the territory of Colombia, allowing to evaluate its effectiveness in hydrological modeling for water management

Una aproximación a los estudios de seguridad ciudadana en Caracas

Históricamente, el discurso de seguridad ha estado reservado a una élite masculina. La aproximación feminista a los estudios de seguridad elaborados por Ann Tickner (1995) y Valerie M. Hudson (2012) principalmente, afirman que la relación seguridad-masculinidad se extiende hoy a la vida civil manifestando que la desigualdad de género es una forma de violencia. Son escasos los estudios que abordan la seguridad ciudadana en una perspectiva de género, lo que impide explorar soluciones efectivas ante las principales problemáticas de violencia al interior de las ciudades. No existe en Latinoamérica una perspectiva de género relevante en el diseño y formulación de políticas públicas de seguridad, lo cual alimenta la violencia, el crimen y la desigualdad. En este artículo se recomienda que abordar una perspectiva de género a la seguridad ciudadana representa una novedosa alternativa para solucionar problemáticas de violencia e inseguridad en las ciudades. Para demostrar lo anterior, se escogió como estudio de caso la ciudad de Caracas. La aplicación de una perspectiva de género brindará enseñanzas no sólo para este caso en particular sino para otras ciudades latinoamericanas. Este artículo es producto de una investigación liderada por la organización WomanStats que analiza la relación entre la situación de seguridad de las mujeres con la seguridad de los Estados Nación (WomanStats.org). Asimismo, constituye un aporte a los estudios sobre género y seguridad ciudadana en un esfuerzo por reconsiderar los significados de paz y seguridad desde una perspectiva femenina

Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application

This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin’s annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin’s water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields