Real Estate Speculation as a Source of Banking and Currency Instability: Lessons from the Asian Crisis

A central feature of the Asian currency crisis was the vast prior capital inflow into the region, and the later rapid reversal of that movement. In seeking to explain why this outflow of capital took place and was so devastating for the countries concerned, various writers have laid blame upon a combination of connected lending, poor bank supervision, moral hazard and “crony capitalism”. Our emphasis is different. Much of the capital inflow financed a vast over-expansion of commercial real estate development. Plunging real estate values accompanied by severe difficulties in the banking and financial sector have been common occurrences across the region. The argument is that large international portfolio capital flows mediated by banks will usually lead to rapidly appreciating asset prices which will result in banking/currency crises.

Efficient computation of steady, 3D water-wave patterns, application to hovercraft-type flows

Numerical methods for the computation of stationary free surfaces is the subject of much current research in computational engineering. The present report is directed towards free surfaces in maritime engineering. Of interest here are the long steady waves generated by hovercraft and ships, the gravity waves. In the present report an existing 2D iterative method for the computation of stationary gravity-wave solutions is extended to 3D, numerically investigated, and improved. The method employs the so-called quasi free-surface boundary condition. As test cases we consider gravity-wave patterns due to hovercraft-type pressure perturbations imposed at the free surface of a steady, uniform horizontal flow. The effects are studied of the distance of the imposed pressure distribution to the far-field boundary, the magnitude of the imposed pressure perturbation, the mesh widths, as well as the presence of a no-slip boundary intersecting the free surface. In all experiments, our focus is on the convergence behavior of the free-surface iteration process

Efficient computation of steady, 3D water-wave patterns

Numerical methods for the computation of stationary free surfaces is the subject of much current research in computational engineering. The present report is directed towards free surfaces in maritime engineering. Of interest here are the long steady waves generated by ships, the gravity waves. In the present report an existing 2D iterative method for the computation of stationary gravity-wave solutions is extended to 3D, numerically investigated, and improved. The method employs the so-called quasi free-surface boudary condition. As test cases we cosider gravity-wave patterns due to pressure perturbations imposed at the free surface of a steady, uniform horizontal flow. The effects are studied of the distance of the imposed pressure distribution to the far-field boundary, the magnitude of the imposed pressure perturbation, and the mesh widths. In all experiments, our focus is on the convergence behavior of the free-surface iteration process

The effects of river flooding on dioxin and PCBs in beef

In 2008-2010, samples of meat from 40 beef cattle, along with grass, soil and commercial feed, taken from ten matched pairs of flood-prone and control farms, were analysed for PCDD/Fs and PCBs. Concentrations were higher in soil and grass from flood-prone farms. The beef samples from flood-prone farms had total TEQ levels about 20% higher than on control farms. A majority of flood-prone farms (7/10) had higher median levels in beef than on the corresponding control farm. This first controlled investigation into PCDD/F and PCB contamination in beef produced on flood-prone land, presents robust evidence that flooding is a contaminant transfer mechanism to cattle raised on river catchments with a history of urbanisation and industrialisation. PCDD/F and PCB sources in these river systems are likely to be a result of the legacy of contamination from previous industrialisation, as well as more recent combustion activity or pollution events. Crow

Riemann-problem and level-set approaches for two-fluid flow computations II. Fixes for solution errors near interfaces.

Fixes are presented for the solution errors (`pressure oscillations') that may occur near two-fluid interfaces when applying a capturing method. The fixes are analyzed and tested. For two-fluid flows with arbitrarily large density ratios, a variant of the ghost-fluid method appears to be a perfect remedy. Results are presented for compressible water-air flows. The results are promising for a further elaboration of this important application area. The paper contributes to the state-of-the-art in computing two-fluid flows

Index selection in terminal sires improves lamb performance at finishing

Lamb meat is often perceived by consumers as fatty, and consumption has decreased in recent decades. A lean growth index was developed in the UK for terminal sire breeds to increase carcass lean content and constrain fat content at a constant age end point. The purposes of this study were 1) to evaluate the effects of index selection of terminal sires on their crossbred offspring at finishing and 2) to evaluate its effectiveness within terminal sire breeds. Approximately 70% of lambs marketed in the UK have been sired by rams of breeds typically thought of as specialized terminal sires. The most widely used are Charollais, Suffolk, and Texel. These breeds participated in sire referencing schemes from the early 1990s by sharing rams among flocks selected on the lean growth index. From 1999 to 2002 approximately 15 “high” and 15 “low” lean growth index score rams were selected from within their sire referencing schemes and mated to Welsh and Scottish Mule ewes. Their crossbred offspring were commercially reared on 3 farms in the UK. Lambs were finished to an estimated 11% subcutaneous fat by visual evaluation. At finishing, lambs were weighed, ultrasonically scanned, and assessed for condition score and conformation. Records were obtained for 6,356 lambs on finishing BW (FWT), ultrasonic muscle depth (UMD), ultrasonic fat depth, overall condition score (OCS), and conformation of gigot, loin, and shoulder. Ultrasonic fat depth was log transformed (logUFD) to approach normality. High-index-sired lambs were heavier at finishing (1.2 ± 0.2 kg) with thicker UMD (0.7 ± 0.2 mm) and less logUFD (0.08 ± 0.01 mm; P \u3c 0.05). There were no differences in OCS or conformation based on the sire index or breed (P \u3e 0.08). Suffolk-sired lambs were heavier than Charollais (1.0 ± 0.3 kg), which were heavier than Texel (0.9 ± 0.3 kg; P \u3c 0.001). Texel-sired lambs had thicker UMD than Charollais (0.7 ± 0.2 mm; P \u3c 0.001) but were not different than Suffolk. Charollais-sired lambs had greater logUFD than both Texel (0.098 ± 0.016 mm) and Suffolk (0.061 ± 0.017 mm) sired lambs (P \u3c 0.001). Within a breed, high- and low-index-sired lambs differed in performance with the exceptions of FWT and UMD in Suffolks. Index selection produced heavier and leaner lambs at finishing. Producers have flexibility in choosing the terminal sire that best fits their production system

Genetic evaluation of days to harvest in crossbred lambs

Days to harvest (DTH) is the number of days a lamb is fed before reaching a target level of fatness. Although economically relevant, this trait has not been thoroughly evaluated in sheep. Most lambs harvested in the United Kingdom are crossbreds sired by purebred terminal sires, with Charollais, Suffolk, and Texel most commonly used. Sires from these breeds were selected on an index designed to increase lean growth while constraining fat. The purpose of this research was to 1) evaluate the effects of index selection in terminal sires on DTH and 2) evaluate the feasibility of incorporating DTH into genetic evaluation programs. Charollais, Suffolk, and Texel sheep had participated in sire referencing schemes where genetic links among flocks were established by sharing rams. Rams with high or low index scores were chosen from these schemes and mated to crossbred ewes at 3 farms in the United Kingdom. Lambs were harvested at a target 11% subcutaneous fat. Records on DTH from 6,350 lambs were analyzed in 2 ways: 1) as time to harvest fitting a survival model and 2) as a normally distributed variable in a bivariate analysis with weight at harvest. The survival analysis was stratified by rearing type (single or twin). In both approaches, sires were fitted using a multivariate normal distribution with a relationship matrix. Regardless of model fitted, sire index did not affect DTH (P \u3e 0.10). However, Texel-sired lambs reached harvest faster (P \u3c 0.01) than either Charollais- or Suffolk-sired lambs although DTH in those 2 breed types did not differ (P \u3e 0.1). Ewe lambs reached harvest faster than wethers (P \u3c 0.01). Lambs from older ewes were harvested faster (P \u3c 0.001). The heritability of DTH was 0.21 from the survival model and 0.20 from the bivariate model. Rank correlation of sire EBV between methods was 0.9, suggesting strong agreement. The use of high or low index sires did not extend DTH in lambs harvested at a target fatness. Importantly, there is no antagonism between improving carcass merit and extending the grazing season. Furthermore, DTH is moderately heritable. If economically justified within a breeding program, it could be reduced through genetic selection

Riemann-problem and level-set approaches for homentropic two-fluid flow computations

A finite-volume method is presented for the computation of compressible flows of two immiscible fluids at very different densities. A novel ingredient in the method is a linearized, two-fluid Osher scheme, allowing for flux computations in the case of different fluids (e.g., water and air) left and right of a cell face. A level-set technique is employed to distinguish between the two fluids. The level-set equation is incorporated into the system of hyperbolic conservation laws. Fixes are presented for the solution errors (pressure oscillations) that may occur near two-fluid interfaces when applying a capturing method. The fixes are analyzed and tested. For two-fluid flows with arbitrarily large density ratios, a simple variant of the ghost-fluid method appears to be a perfect remedy. Computations for compressible water–air flows yield perfectly sharp, pressure-oscillation-free interfaces. The masses of the separate fluids appear to be conserved up to first-order accuracy

An Osher-type and level-set scheme for two-fluid flow computations

A simple and efficient finite-volume method is presented for the computation of compressible flows of two immiscible fluids at very different densities. One novel ingredient in the method is a two-fluid Osher-type scheme, which is capable of computing the cell-face flux in case of two different fluids (e.g., water and air) left and right of the cell face. The other original property of the method is that a level-set term, for distinguishing between the two fluid8, is consistently incorporated as one of the flux components. The level-set flux is properly treated by the Osher-type scheme