Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number

Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number, R0, provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we compute R0 for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influences R0 were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude of R0. The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate

Invasion of bluetongue and other orbivirus infections into Europe: the role of biological and climatic processes

The invasion of multiple strains of the midge-borne bluetongue virus into southern Europe since the late 1990s provides a rare example of a clear impact of climate change on a vector-borne disease. However, the subsequent dramatic continent-wide spread and burden of this disease has depended largely on altered biotic interactions with vector and host communities in newly invaded areas. Transmission by Palearctic vectors has facilitated the establishment of the disease in cooler and wetter areas of both northern and southern Europe. This paper discusses the important biological and climatic processes involved in these invasions, and the lessons that must be drawn for effective risk management of bluetongue and other midge-borne viruses in Europe

Using Combined Diagnostic Test Results to Hindcast Trends of Infection from Cross-Sectional Data

Infectious disease surveillance is key to limiting the consequences from infectious pathogens and maintaining animal and public health. Following the detection of a disease outbreak, a response in proportion to the severity of the outbreak is required. It is thus critical to obtain accurate information concerning the origin of the outbreak and its forward trajectory. However, there is often a lack of situational awareness that may lead to over- or under-reaction. There is a widening range of tests available for detecting pathogens, with typically different temporal characteristics, e.g. in terms of when peak test response occurs relative to time of exposure. We have developed a statistical framework that combines response level data from multiple diagnostic tests and is able to ‘hindcast’ (infer the historical trend of) an infectious disease epidemic. Assuming diagnostic test data from a cross-sectional sample of individuals infected with a pathogen during an outbreak, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate time of exposure, and the overall epidemic trend in the population prior to the time of sampling. We evaluate the performance of this statistical framework on simulated data from epidemic trend curves and show that we can recover the parameter values of those trends. We also apply the framework to epidemic trend curves taken from two historical outbreaks: a bluetongue outbreak in cattle, and a whooping cough outbreak in humans. Together, these results show that hindcasting can estimate the time since infection for individuals and provide accurate estimates of epidemic trends, and can be used to distinguish whether an outbreak is increasing or past its peak. We conclude that if temporal characteristics of diagnostics are known, it is possible to recover epidemic trends of both human and animal pathogens from cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time. © 2016 Rydevik et al

Translocation portals for the substrates and products of a viral transcription complex: the bluetongue virus core

The bluetongue virus core is a molecular machine that simultaneously and repeatedly transcribes mRNA from 10 segments of viral double-stranded RNA, packaged in a liquid crystalline array. To determine how the logistical problems of transcription within a sealed shell are solved, core crystals were soaked with various ligands and analysed by X-ray crystallography. Mg(2+) ions produce a slight expansion of the capsid around the 5-fold axes. Oligonucleotide soaks demonstrate that the 5-fold pore, opened up by this expansion, is the exit site for mRNA, whilst nucleotide soaks pinpoint a separate binding site that appears to be a selective channel for the entry and exit of substrates and by-products. Finally, nucleotides also bind to the outer core layer, providing a substrate sink

RNA segment 9 exists as a duplex concatemer in an Australian strain of epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV): Genetic analysis and evidence for the presence of concatemers as a normal feature of orbivirus replication

AbstractThis paper reports a concatemeric RNA in a strain of epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) serotype 5. Sequencing showed that the concatemeric RNA contains two identical full-length copies of genome segment 9, arranged in series, which has apparently replaced the monomeric form of the segment. In vitro translation demonstrated that the concatemeric RNA can act as a viable template for VP6 translation, but that no double-sized protein is produced. Studies were also performed to assess whether mutations might be easily introduced into the second copy (which might indicate some potential evolutionary significance of a concatemeric RNA segment), however multiple (n=40) passages generated no changes in the sequence of either the upstream or downstream segments. Further, we present results that demonstrate the presence of concatemers or partial gene duplications in multiple segments of different orbiviruses (in tissue culture and purified virus), suggesting their generation is likely to be a normal feature of orbivirus replication

Sequence analysis of bluetongue virus serotype 8 from the Netherlands 2006 and comparison to other European strains

During 2006 the first outbreak of bluetongue ever recorded in northern Europe started in Belgium and the Netherlands, spreading to Luxemburg, Germany and north-east France. The virus overwintered (2006¿2007) reappearing during May¿June 2007 with greatly increased severity in affected areas, spreading further into Germany and France, reaching Denmark, Switzerland, the Czech Republic and the UK. Infected animals were also imported into Poland, Italy, Spain and the UK. An initial isolate from the Netherlands (NET2006/04) was identified as BTV-8 by RT-PCR assays targeting genome segment 2. The full genome of NET2006/04 was sequenced and compared to selected European isolates, South African vaccine strains and other BTV-8 strains, indicating that it originated in sub-Saharan Africa. Although NET2006/04 showed high levels of nucleotide identity with other `western¿ BTV strains, it represents a new introduction and was not derived from the BTV-8 vaccine, although its route of entry into Europe has not been established

Characterisation and partial sequence analysis of two novel cypoviruses isolated from the winter moth Operophtera brumata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

The complete nucleotide sequences of genomic segments S5 to S10 from Operophtera brumata cypovirus 18 (OpbuCPV18), and the complete nucleotide sequences of genomic segments S2, S5, S9 and S10 from Operophtera brumata cypovirus 19 (OpbuCPV19) have been determined. Each genome segment contained a single open reading frame (ORF). Conserved motifs 5′ (AGUAAA....GUUAGCU) 3′ were found at the ends of each segment of OpbuCPV18, whilst conserved motifs 5′ (AACAAA....UUUGC) 3′ were found at each segment terminus of OpbuCPV19. The putative proteins were compared with those of other members of the Reoviridae family. Phylogenetic analysis using the polyhedrin gene (S10) indicated that OpbuCPV18 was most closely related to Dendrolimus punctatus cypovirus 1, whilst OpbuCPV19 was most closely related to Trichoplusia ni cypovirus 15. In addition, analysis of S2, which encoded a putative RNA-dependant RNA polymerase gene, confirmed OpbuCPV19 belonged to the genus Cypovirus. Following the expression of the ORF from OpbuCPV19 S10, using a baculovirus expression vector, occlusion bodies were observed in insect cell culture. This demonstrated that segment 10 coded for the polyhedrin gene, capable of forming a polyhedral crystalline matrix