A nonlinear updating algorithm captures suboptimal inference in the presence of signal-dependent noise

Bayesian models have advanced the idea that humans combine prior beliefs and sensory observations to optimize behavior. How the brain implements Bayes-optimal inference, however, remains poorly understood. Simple behavioral tasks suggest that the brain can flexibly represent probability distributions. An alternative view is that the brain relies on simple algorithms that can implement Bayes-optimal behavior only when the computational demands are low. To distinguish between these alternatives, we devised a task in which Bayes-optimal performance could not be matched by simple algorithms. We asked subjects to estimate and reproduce a time interval by combining prior information with one or two sequential measurements. In the domain of time, measurement noise increases with duration. This property takes the integration of multiple measurements beyond the reach of simple algorithms. We found that subjects were able to update their estimates using the second measurement but their performance was suboptimal, suggesting that they were unable to update full probability distributions. Instead, subjects’ behavior was consistent with an algorithm that predicts upcoming sensory signals, and applies a nonlinear function to errors in prediction to update estimates. These results indicate that the inference strategies employed by humans may deviate from Bayes-optimal integration when the computational demands are high

Prevalence and changes in chronic diseases among South Korean farmers: 1998 to 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiologic studies have suggested a unique pattern of disease among farmers in Western countries, but limited information is available about the magnitude of disease prevalence and their changes over time in Asian farmers. The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence and changes in chronic diseases among farmers with those of other occupational groups in South Korea.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from three consecutive cross-sectional national surveys: the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1998 (n = 39,060), 2001 (n = 37,769), and 2005 (n = 34,145), we calculated age and gender-standardized prevalence of chronic diseases by the direct method and compared the prevalence changes from 1998 to 2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Female farmers had significantly higher chronic disease prevalence than other occupational groups in all three surveys. Arthritis was the most prevalent chronic disease among farmers for both men and women. Compared with other populations, farmers demonstrated a higher prevalence of arthritis and intervertebral disc disorders. Farmers showed higher prevalence changes for intervertebral disc disorders than other occupational workers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings support that South Korean farmers have a distinct pattern of diseases prevalence from other populations. More detailed studies investigating the risk of musculoskeletal diseases and intensive intervention efforts to reduce the prevalence these diseases, particularly among female farmers, are required.</p

Management control systems in innovation companies: A literature based framework

Past research has traditionally argued that management control systems (MCSs) may present a hindrance to the creativity of innovation companies. This theoretical paper surveys the literature to focus an investigation on the MCSs of innovation companies. Within the object of control paradigm the paper develops and presents a theoretical model of the impact of eleven external, organisational and innovation related contingency factors on the MCSs in companies that engage in innovation activities. We also suggest measures for further empirical research. By formulating hypotheses on 43 potential interactions the model predicts contradictory influences on two direct control categories, results and action control, but stresses the importance of two indirect categories, personnel and cultural control. More specifically, the high levels of technological complexity and innovation capability in this type of company are expected to be negatively associated with the application of results and action control, whereas personnel and cultural seem to be more appropriate. Furthermore, important sources of finance, venture capital and public funding, are both hypothesised to be positively associated with the application of results, action and personnel control; whereas only public funding is predicted to be positively related to the application of cultural control. The principal contribution of this paper lies in synthesising the literature to provide a model of the impact of a unique set of eleven contingency factors for innovation companies on a broad scope of controls. In addition, the contingency model, if empirically validated, would add value by inferring the particular forms of management control which would be beneficial in innovative company settings. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Searching for early breast cancer biomarkers by serum protein profiling of pre-diagnostic serum; a nested case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Serum protein profiles have been investigated frequently to discover early biomarkers for breast cancer. So far, these studies used biological samples collected <it>at </it>or <it>after </it>diagnosis. This may limit these studies' value in the search for cancer biomarkers because of the often advanced tumor stage, and consequently risk of reverse causality. We present for the first time pre-diagnostic serum protein profiles in relation to breast cancer, using the Prospect-EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition) cohort.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a nested case-control design we compared 68 women diagnosed with breast cancer within three years after enrollment, with 68 matched controls for differences in serum protein profiles. All samples were analyzed with SELDI-TOF MS (surface enhanced laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry). In a subset of 20 case-control pairs, the serum proteome was identified and relatively quantified using isobaric Tags for Relative and Absolute Quantification (iTRAQ) and online two-dimensional nano-liquid chromatography coupled with tandem MS (2D-nanoLC-MS/MS).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two SELDI-TOF MS peaks with m/z 3323 and 8939, which probably represent doubly charged apolipoprotein C-I and C3a des-arginine anaphylatoxin (C3a_desArg), were higher in pre-diagnostic breast cancer serum (p = 0.02 and p = 0.06, respectively). With 2D-nanoLC-MS/MS, afamin, apolipoprotein E and isoform 1 of inter-alpha trypsin inhibitor heavy chain H4 (ITIH4) were found to be higher in pre-diagnostic breast cancer (p < 0.05), while alpha-2-macroglobulin and ceruloplasmin were lower (p < 0.05). C3a_desArgand ITIH4 have previously been related to the presence of symptomatic and/or mammographically detectable breast cancer.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We show that serum protein profiles are already altered up to three years before breast cancer detection.</p

Cell Recovery in Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid in Smokers Is Dependent on Cumulative Smoking History

Background: Smoking is a risk factor for various lung diseases in which BAL may be used as a part of a clinical investigation. Interpretation of BAL fluid cellularity is however difficult due to high variability, in particular among smokers. In this study we aimed to evaluate the effect of smoking on BAL cellular components in asymptomatic smokers. The effects of smoking cessation, age and gender were also investigated in groups of smokers and exsmokers. Methods: We performed a retrospective review of BAL findings, to our knowledge the largest single center investigation, in our department from 1999 to 2009. One hundred thirty two current smokers (48 males and 84 females) and 44 ex-smokers (16 males and 28 females) were included. A group of 295 (132 males and 163 females) never-smokers served as reference. Result: The median [5–95 pctl] total number of cells and cell concentration in current smokers were 63.4 [28.6–132.1]610 6 and 382.1 [189.7–864.3]610 6 /L respectively and correlated positively to the cumulative smoking history. Macrophages were the predominant cell type (96.7 % [90.4–99.0]) followed by lymphocytes (2 % [0.8–7.7]) and neutrophils (0.6 % [0–2.9]). The concentration of all inflammatory cells was increased in smokers compared to never smokers and ex-smokers. BAL fluid recovery was negatively correlated with age (p,0.001). Smoking men had a lower BAL fluid recovery than smoking women. Conclusion: Smoking has a profound effect on BAL fluid cellularity, which is dependent on smoking history. Our results performed on a large group of current smokers and ex-smokers in a well standardized way, can contribute to bette

Objectively measured patterns of sedentary time and physical activity in young adults of the Raine study cohort

Background: To provide a detailed description of young adults' sedentary time and physical activity. Methods: 384 young women and 389 young men aged 22.1±0.6 years, all participants in the 22 year old follow-up of the Raine Study pregnancy cohort, wore Actigraph GT3X+ monitors on the hip for 24 h/day over a one-week period for at least one 'valid' day (=10 h of waking wear time). Each minute epoch was classified as sedentary, light, moderate or vigorous intensity using 100 count and Freedson cut-points. Mixed models assessed hourly and daily variation; t-tests assessed gender differences. Results: The average (mean±SD) waking wear time was 15.0±1.6 h/day, of which 61.4±10.1 % was spent sedentary, 34.6±9.1 % in light-, 3.7±5.3 % in moderate- and, 0.3±0.6 % in vigorous-intensity activity. Average time spent in moderate to vigorous activity (MVPA) was 36.2±27.5 min/day. Relative to men, women had higher sedentary time, but also higher vigorous activity time. The 'usual' bout duration of sedentary time was 11.8±4.5 min in women and 11.7±5.2 min in men. By contrast, other activities were accumulated in shorter bout durations. There was large variation by hour of the day and by day of the week in both sedentary time and MVPA. Evenings and Sundays through Wednesdays tended to be particularly sedentary and/or inactive. Conclusion: For these young adults, much of the waking day was spent sedentary and many participants were physically inactive (low levels of MVPA). We provide novel evidence on the time for which activities were performed and on the time periods when young adults were more sedentary and/or less active. With high sedentary time and low MVPA, young adults may be at risk for the life-course sequelae of these behaviours

Modeling “psychosis” in vitro by inducing disordered neuronal network activity in cortical brain slices

# The Author(s) 2009. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Introduction Dysregulation of neuronal networks has been suggested to underlie the cognitive and perceptual abnor-malities observed schizophrenia. Discussions An in vitro model of psychosis is proposed based on the two different approaches to cause aberrant networ

Prognostic significance of microvessel density and other variables in Japanese and British patients with primary invasive breast cancer

The purpose of this study is to investigate the associations of microvessel density (MVD) and other pathological variables with survival, and whether they accounted for survival differences between Japanese and British patients. One hundred seventy-three Japanese and 184 British patients were included in the study. British patients were significantly older (56.3±11.4 years vs 52.5±12.9 years; P<0.01) and had smaller tumours (2.2±1.3 vs 2.7±1.8 cm; P<0.01), which were more frequently oestrogen receptor positive (78.8 vs 57.2%, P<0.01), had more grade III tumours (29.9 vs 21.4%, P=0.04) and more infiltrating lobular carcinomas (13.6 vs 4.0%, P<0.01) and a higher MVD compared with Japanese patients (57.9±19.8 vs 53.2±18.6; P=0.01). However, no difference in the prevalence of lymph-node metastasis was found between them (39.1 vs 37.5%, P=0.75). Younger British patients (age <50 years) had the highest MVD compared with Japanese and older British patients (P<0.01). Japanese patients were proportionately more likely to receive chemotherapy than endocrine therapy (P<0.01). British patients had a significantly worse relapse-free survival and overall survival compared with Japanese patients, after statistical adjustment for variables (hazard ratio=2.1, 2.4, P<0.01, P<0.01, respectively), especially, in T2 stage, low MVD and older subgroup (HR: 3.6, 5.0; 3.1, 3.3; 3.2, 3.9, respectively), but only in ER negative cases (P=0.04, P=0.01, respectively). The present study shows that MVD contributes to the Japanese–British disparity in breast cancer. However, the MVD variability did not explain the survival differences between Japanese and British patients

Temporal regularity of the environment drives time perception

It’s reasonable to assume that a regularly paced sequence should be perceived as regular, but here we show that perceived regularity depends on the context in which the sequence is embedded. We presented one group of participants with perceptually regularly paced sequences, and another group of participants with mostly irregularly paced sequences (75% irregular, 25% regular). The timing of the final stimulus in each sequence could be varied. In one experiment, we asked whether the last stimulus was regular or not. We found that participants exposed to an irregular environment frequently reported perfectly regularly paced stimuli to be irregular. In a second experiment, we asked participants to judge whether the final stimulus was presented before or after a flash. In this way, we were able to determine distortions in temporal perception as changes in the timing necessary for the sound and the flash to be perceived synchronous. We found that within a regular context, the perceived timing of deviant last stimuli changed so that the relative anisochrony appeared to be perceptually decreased. In the irregular context, the perceived timing of irregular stimuli following a regular sequence was not affected. These observations suggest that humans use temporal expectations to evaluate the regularity of sequences and that expectations are combined with sensory stimuli to adapt perceived timing to follow the statistics of the environment. Expectations can be seen as a-priori probabilities on which perceived timing of stimuli depend