Random Matrix Theory and the Failure of Macroeconomic Forecasts

By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags spanning the period over which any regularity of behaviour is postulated by economists to exist. We use methods of random matrix theory to analyse the correlation matrix of the delay matrix. This is done for annual data from 1871 to 1994 for 17 economies, and for post-war quarterly data for the US and the UK. The properties of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of these correlation matrices are similar, though not identical, to those implied by random matrix theory. This suggests that the genuine information content in economic growth data is low, and so forecasting failure arises from inherent properties of the data.Comment: 15 Pages, 2 Figure

A multicenter study on chronic cough in children: Burden and etiologies based on a standardized management pathway

Background: While the burden of chronic cough in children has been documented, etiologic factors across multiple settings and age have not been described. In children with chronic cough, we aimed (1) to evaluate the burden and etiologies using a standar

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Engaging Medical Students in the Basic Science Years with Clinical Teaching

Education of future medical practitioners involves the stewarding of knowledge and skills, and the development of values required for responsible practice. Students must not only master a vast amount of knowledge and theory but also understand how to apply it. A key challenge for medical educators is to approach this in a balanced and integrated manner, particularly within the basic science years of the medical program. The purpose of this article is to consider how the clinical environment, teaching methods, assessment, and feedback impact on the engagement of junior medical students

Peer tutoring in a medical school: perceptions of tutors and tutees

BACKGROUND: Peer tutoring has been described as “people from similar social groupings who are not professional teachers helping each other to learn and learning themselves by teaching”. Peer tutoring is well accepted as a source of support in many medical curricula, where participation and learning involve a process of socialisation. Peer tutoring can ease the transition of the junior students from the university class environment to the hospital workplace. In this paper, we apply the Experienced Based Learning (ExBL) model to explore medical students’ perceptions of their experience of taking part in a newly established peer tutoring program at a hospital based clinical school. METHODS: In 2014, all students at Sydney Medical School – Central, located at Royal Prince Alfred Hospital were invited to voluntarily participate in the peer tutoring program. Year 3 students (n = 46) were invited to act as tutors for Year 1 students (n = 50), and Year 4 students (n = 60) were invited to act as tutors for Year 2 students (n = 51). Similarly, the ‘tutees’ were invited to take part on a voluntary basis. Students were invited to attend focus groups, which were held at the end of the program. Framework analysis was used to code and categorise data into themes. RESULTS: In total, 108/207 (52 %) students participated in the program. A total of 42/106 (40 %) of Year 3 and 4 students took part as tutors; and of 66/101 (65 %) of Year 1 and 2 students took part as tutees. Five focus groups were held, with 50/108 (46 %) of students voluntarily participating. Senior students (tutors) valued the opportunity to practice and improve their medical knowledge and teaching skills. Junior students (tutees) valued the opportunity for additional practice and patient interaction, within a relaxed, small group learning environment. CONCLUSION: Students perceived the peer tutoring program as affording opportunities not otherwise available within the curriculum. The peer teaching program provided a framework within the medical curriculum for senior students to practice and improve their medical knowledge and teaching skills. Concurrently, junior students were provided with a valuable learning experience that they reported as being qualitatively different to traditional teaching by faculty