A Stochastic Model to Evaluate Pricing Distortions in Indemnity Insurance Methods for MTPL Insurance

Direct compensation or the direct reimbursement scheme is an indemnity insurance method that many European and American countries use to manage motor liability claims in which the driver that suffers an accident is paid by his/her insurance company that possibly later receives a flat-rate reimbursement (known as forfeit). Using non-life actuarial methodologies, this article analyses the distortion effects due to the direct compensation mechanisms and the effects of different forfeit reimbursement systems on policyholder tariffs in the management of motor liability claims involving vehicles in two different sectors, i.e. automobile and motorcycle. We empirically analyse and formalize the distortion effects resulting from the mechanism that different direct reimbursement systems produce, and explore the correlation between increasing tariffs for motorcycle policyholders and decreasing tariffs for other vehicle policyholders. We propose some alternative methods to overcome these distortion effects, evaluating their pricing impact through a stochastic model applied to a case study

Percorsi conoscitivi nell‟Epistolario di Marsilio Ficino: tra miseria hominis e deificatio

2014 - 2015The thesis arises from the critical proposal to consider Marsilio Ficino’s Epistolae as the philosopher’s favourite place for the discussion of the main themes of his speculation. Ficino’s preference for the short-treatise form makes this work a huge resource for the scholars; however, what is proposed here is a hermeneutical hypothesis based on the theory of knowledge emerging from his Letters. Knowledge has a decisive role in Ficino’s epistolary project of the diffusion of a renewed Platonism: it is, on one hand, the most suitable instrument for the analysis of human condition and, on the other, the only medium for the elevation of man to the divine. The thesis consists of three chapters: the first, which serves as an introduction, deals with some philological problems about the complex nature of the Epistolarium, mostly with the genre of letter-treatise that, although it is present in all the twelve books, it is exclusive of the second. Therefore, the main thematic nuclei of the so-called Opuscula theologica are examined, which are useful hermeneutical tools for the continuation of the work. Finally, I have proposed an interpretation founded on the peculiar relationship between contemplative and active life in order to better understand the arguments of the next chapters. The second chapter discusses two core themes of Ficino’s theory of knowledge: anthropology and psychology. About the former, I present the letters that the philosopher addresses «to Mankind»: from these, what arises is a picture of man who is always suspended between the misery of his temporal condition and the deification as his highest aspiration, after the discovery and knowledge of the self. Ficino, ideally addressing the human race, succeeds to express the exhortation to the highest virtue of humanity, at the same time the means and ends of the highest achievement of man. The latter, however, becomes possible only by the special nature of the human soul which is the subject of analysis of the next section: the epistles on the soul are studied by comparing with the Platonic Theology on the Immortality of Souls, showing similarities and 2 differences. The question of the relation between the multiplicity of the powers of the soul and its unity is followed by that about the intellect and the will in the fruition of the highest Good. This is a recurrent and apparently contradictory theme in the Epistolarium, which I discuss on the base of recent studies. The third chapter concerns the faculties of knowledge involved in the cognitive path offered in the letters. The first section talks about the ambiguous function of the two powers of phantasy and imagination, about which I explain not only the terminological difference, but also the different nature: the deceptive imagination, that is responsible for the illusory manifestation of reality, opposing the phantasy, that “translates” intellectual contents in order to make them comprehensible by the reason. The second section deals with the question of the production of true knowledge and the role of the reason and the intellect. From the problematic nature of human intellectus and the results of the second chapter, through an analysis of Platonic sources, I propose a form of human knowledge based both on dianoetic rational process and on intuition of the highest part of mens. In this way, one is able to give meaning to all the highest forms of knowledge throughout the work: divine frenzy, vacatio animae and prophecy. Although these seem “altered” states of consciousness related to each other, they reflect the evolution of Ficino’s philosophy. Following the progress of the first theme from the De divino furore to the last letters and the Commentaries on Plato’s dialogues (Symposium, Phaedrus and Ion), it is possible to get both the philosopher’s attempt to be close to the source and the problematic assimilation to the Pauline raptus that he proposes. The argument on the septem vacationis genera in the thirteenth book of Platonic Theology becomes the looking-glass through which one can interpret dreams, previsions, miracles found in the Letters. In the end, through the study of the Neoplatonic sources and the Savonarolan thinking, I discuss the theme of prophetic knowledge that is on the boundaries between a divine gift and a natural power of the soul. From Ficino’s Epistolae, what results is a very complex picture of man, an actual doublefaced Janus, who is always turned to the knowledge of God but is often hindered by the anxiety and restlessness of this life. Furthermore, the reading of the letters in relation to philosopher’s other works, is a valid instrument for the reconstruction of his thinking. The thesis presents an Appendix with the text and the Italian translation of the most important letters in order to better comprehend the hermeneutical proposal of this work. In conclusion, there is a wide bibliography of the sources and the examined critical studies. [edited by Author]XIV n.s

Disruption of Life Insurance Profitability in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic

5noopenLife insurance profitability depends on reliable mortality risk projections and pricing. While the COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions around the world, this is a temporary mortality shock likely to dissipate. In this paper, we investigate the long-run impact of COVID-19 on life insurance profitability. Due to the long-run dynamics of the mortality characterised by a decreasing effect of the COVID-19 mortality acceleration, we suggest proactive mortality risk management by implementing prompt premium adjustments, in order to increase the resilience of the business.openCarannante, M.; D’Amato, V.; Fersini, P.; Forte, S.; MelisiCarannante, M.; D’Amato, V.; Fersini, P.; Forte, S.; Melisi

Best estimate of the motor liability claims reserve under the direct reimbursement scheme

In some European countries, a large subset of motor liability claims is managed under a direct reimbursement (DR) scheme. The first component that loss adjustors use to evaluate the claims reserve is given by the sum of the estimated provision for each outstanding claim (known as case reserves). Due to the heterogeneity of data available, the introduction of direct indemnity in third-party liability insurance has resulted in greater attention to the traditional statistical-actuarial methods used to control and/or verify the evaluations. This paper presents the first results of a study undertaken to define a new calculation method that enables quantifying the claims reserve using different hypotheses of the evolution of settlement mechanisms and in so doing offers greater transparency, objectivity as well as the opportunity to perform stress tests. A numerical application is presented comparing the results of the proposed model with those using traditional statistical methods

Vine copula modeling dependence among cyber risks: A dangerous regulatory paradox

Dependence among different cyber risk classes is a fundamentally underexplored topic in the literature. However, disregarding the dependence structure in cyber risk management leads to inconsistent estimates of potential unintended losses. To bridge this gap, this article adopts a regulatory perspective to develop vine copulas to capture dependence. In quantifying the solvency capital requirement gradient for cyber risk measurement according to Solvency II, a dangerous paradox emerges: an insurance company does not tend to provide cyber risk hedging products as they are excessively expensive and would require huge premiums that it would not be possible to find policyholders

Machine learning due diligence evaluation to increase NPLs profitability transactions on secondary market

In this paper, we contribute to the topic of the non-performing loans (NPLs) business proftability on the secondary market by developing machine learning-based due diligence. In particular, a loan became non-performing when the borrower is unlikely to pay, and we use the ability of the ML algorithms to model complex relationships between predictors and outcome variables, we set up an ad hoc dependent random forest regressor algorithm for projecting the recovery rate of a portfolio of the secured NPLs. Indeed the proftability of the transactions under consideration depends on forecast models of the amount of net repayments expected from receivables and related collection times. Finally, the evaluation approach we provide helps to reduce the ”lemon discount” by pricing the risky component of informational asymmetry between better-informed banks and potential investors in particular for higher quality, collateralised NPLs

Comparison of the claims reserves methods by analyzing the run-off error

The variability of claim costs represents an important risk component, which should be taken into account while implementing the internal models for solvency evaluation of an insurance undertaking. This component can generate differences between future payments for claims and the provisions set aside for the same claims (run-off error). If the liability concerning the claims reserve is evaluated using synthetic methods, then the run-off error depends on the statistical method adopted; when it is not possible to study analytically the properties of the estimators, methods based on stochastic simulation are particularly effective. This work focuses on measuring the run-off error with reference to claims reserves evaluation methods applied to simulated run-off matrices for the claims settlement development. The results from the numerical implementations provide the authors with useful insights for a rational selection of the statistical-actuarial method for the claims reserve evaluation on an integrated risk management framework. The setting of the analysis is similar to that adopted in other studies (Stanard, 1986; Pentikainen and Rantala, 1992; Buhlmann et al., 1980), however, it differs for estimation and simulation methods considered and for the statistics elaborated in the comparison. Keywords: run-off error, outstanding claims reserves, stochastic simulatio

EMT and Treatment Resistance in Pancreatic Cancer

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is the third leading cause of adult cancer mortality in the United States. The poor prognosis for patients with PC is mainly due to its aggressive course, the limited efficacy of active systemic treatments, and a metastatic behavior, demonstrated throughout the evolution of the disease. On average, 80% of patients with PC are diagnosed with metastatic disease, and the half of those who undergo surgery and adjuvant therapy develop liver metastasis within two years. Metastatic dissemination is an early event in PC and is mainly attributed to an evolutionary biological process called epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT). This innate mechanism could have a dual role during embryonic growth and organ differentiation, and in cancer progression, cancer stem cell intravasation, and metastasis settlement. Many of the molecular pathways decisive in EMT progression have been already unraveled, but little is known about the causes behind the induction of this mechanism. EMT is one of the most distinctive and critical features of PC, occurring even in the very first stages of tumor development. This is known as pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN) and leads to early dissemination, drug resistance, and unfavorable prognosis and survival. The intention of this review is to shed new light on the critical role assumed by EMT during PC progression, with a particular focus on its role in PC resistance

Understanding Patient Experience in Biliary Tract Cancer: A Qualitative Patient Interview Study

Cáncer del tracto biliar; Estudio de entrevista; Investigación cualitativaCàncer del tracte biliar; Estudi d'entrevista; Recerca qualitativaBiliary tract cancer; Interview study; Qualitative researchIntroduction Patients living with biliary tract cancer (BTC) experience a decline in health-related quality of life (HRQoL). This study aimed to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the patient experience of BTC-related signs/symptoms and the impacts of these on daily functioning and HRQoL. Methods Patients with BTC participated in qualitative semi-structured concept elicitation interviews. Signs/symptoms and impacts of BTC were initially explored by targeted literature searches and interviews with five clinicians. Patient interviews were transcribed and coded using qualitative research software. Concept saturation was assessed over five interview waves. A sign/symptom or impact was defined as “salient” if mentioned by ≥ 50% of patients, with a mean disturbance rating of ≥ 5 (0–10 scale). A conceptual model of the patient experience of BTC-related signs/symptoms and impacts was produced. Results Twenty-three patients from the USA (78% women; median age: 54 years), diagnosed as having early (n = 3), locally advanced (n = 11) or metastatic (n = 9) disease, were interviewed. Sixty-six signs/symptoms and 12 impacts were identified. Of these, 46 signs/symptoms and 8 impacts were not identified from the targeted literature or clinician interviews. Concept saturation was reached by the fourth of five interview waves. Fourteen disease-related signs/symptoms (including fatigue/lack of energy, abdominal pain, lack of appetite, insomnia and diarrhoea) and three impacts (physical, emotional and cognitive impacts) were deemed “salient”. The conceptual model included 50 signs/symptoms and 12 impacts. Conclusion Patients with BTC reported a range of signs/symptoms and impacts that negatively affect daily functioning and HRQoL.This project was funded by AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA. Research and publication fees are funded by the study sponsor