Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States

Rapid and simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 are predicted to occur over the next century. Simple, well-validated models of ecosystem function are required to predict the effects of these changes. This paper describes an improved version of a forest carbon and water balance model (PnET-II) and the application of the model to predict stand- and regional-level effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. PnET-II is a simple, generalized, monthly time-step model of water and carbon balances (gross and net) driven by nitrogen availability as expressed through foliar N concentration. Improvements from the original model include a complete carbon balance and improvements in the prediction of canopy phenology, as well as in the computation of canopy structure and photosynthesis. The model was parameterized and run for 4 forest/site combinations and validated against available data for water yield, gross and net carbon exchange and biomass production. The validation exercise suggests that the determination of actual water availability to stands and the occurrence or non-occurrence of soil-based water stress are critical to accurate modeling of forest net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP). The model was then run for the entire NewEngland/New York (USA) region using a 1 km resolution geographic information system. Predicted long-term NEP ranged from -85 to +275 g C m-2 yr-1 for the 4 forest/site combinations, and from -150 to 350 g C m-2 yr-1 for the region, with a regional average of 76 g C m-2 yr-1. A combination of increased temperature (+6*C), decreased precipitation (-15%) and increased water use efficiency (2x, due to doubling of CO2) resulted generally in increases in NPP and decreases in water yield over the region

Heart rate variability and target organ damage in hypertensive patients

Background: We evaluated the association between linear standard Heart Rate Variability (HRV) measures and vascular, renal and cardiac target organ damage (TOD). Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed including 200 patients registered in the Regione Campania network (aged 62.4 ± 12, male 64%). HRV analysis was performed by 24-h holter ECG. Renal damage was assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), vascular damage by carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), and cardiac damage by left ventricular mass index. Results: Significantly lower values of the ratio of low to high frequency power (LF/HF) were found in the patients with moderate or severe eGFR (p-value < 0.001). Similarly, depressed values of indexes of the overall autonomic modulation on heart were found in patients with plaque compared to those with a normal IMT (p-value <0.05). These associations remained significant after adjustment for other factors known to contribute to the development of target organ damage, such as age. Moreover, depressed LF/HF was found also in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy but this association was not significant after adjustment for other factors. Conclusions: Depressed HRV appeared to be associated with vascular and renal TOD, suggesting the involvement of autonomic imbalance in the TOD. However, as the mechanisms by which abnormal autonomic balance may lead to TOD, and, particularly, to renal organ damage are not clearly known, further prospective studies with longitudinal design are needed to determine the association between HRV and the development of TOD

Pupillometry via smartphone for low-resource settings

The photopupillary reflex regulates the pupil reaction to changing light conditions. Being controlled by the autonomic nervous system, it is a proxy for brain trauma and for the conditions of patients in critical care. A prompt evaluation of brain traumas can save lives. With a simple penlight, skilled clinicians can do that, whereas less specialized ones have to resort to a digital pupilometer. However, many low-income countries lack both specialized clinicians and digital pupilometers. This paper presents the early results of our study aiming at designing, prototyping and validating an app for testing the photopupillary reflex via Android, following the European Medical Device Regulation and relevant standards. After a manual validation, the prototype underwent a technical validation against a commercial Infrared pupilometer. As a result, the proposed app performed as well as the manual measurements and better than the commercial solution, with lower errors, higher and significant correlations, and significantly better Bland-Altman plots for all the pupillometry-related measures. The design of this medical device was performed based on our expertise in low-resource settings. This kind of environments imposes more stringent design criteria due to contextual challenges, including the lack of specialized clinicians, funds, spare parts and consumables, poor maintenance, and harsh environmental conditions, which may hinder the safe operationalization of medical devices. This paper provides an overview of how these unique contextual characteristics are cascaded into the design of an app in order to contribute to the Sustainable Development Goal 3 of the World Health Organization: Good health and well-being

Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

First identification of a chemotactic receptor in an invertebrate species: Structural and functional characterization of Ciona intestinalis C3a receptor

In mammals, the bioactive fragment C3a, released from C3 during complement activation, is a potent mediator of inflammatory reactions and exerts its functional activity through the specific binding to cell surface G protein-coupled seven-transmembrane receptors. Recently, we demonstrated a Ciona intestinalis C3a (CiC3a)-mediated chemotaxis of hemocytes in the deuterostome invertebrate Ciona intestinalis and suggested an important role for this molecule in inflammatory processes. In the present work, we have cloned and characterized the receptor molecule involved in the CiC3a-mediated chemotaxis and studied its expression profile. The sequence, encoding a 95,394 Da seven-transmembrane domain protein, shows the highest sequence homology with mammalian C3aRs. Northern blot analysis revealed that the CiC3aR is expressed abundantly in the heart and neural complex and to a lesser extent in the ovaries, hemocytes, and larvae. Three polyclonal Abs raised in rabbits against peptides corresponding to CiC3aR regions of the first and second extracellular loop and of the third intracellular loop react specifically in Western blotting with a single band of 98–102 kDa in hemocyte protein extracts. Immunostaining performed on circulating hemocytes with the three specific Abs revealed that CiC3aR is constitutively expressed only in hyaline and granular amoebocytes. In chemotaxis experiments, the Abs against the first and second extracellular loop inhibited directional migration of hemocytes toward the synthetic peptide reproducing the CiC3a C-terminal sequence, thus providing the compelling evidence that C. intestinalis expresses a functional C3aR homologous to the mammalian receptor. These findings further elucidate the evolutionary origin of the vertebrate complement-mediated proinflammatory process

FOOD SAFETY AND PROCESS HYGIENE CRITERIONS ON SHEEP CARCASSES

The hygienic status and the presence of some pathogens (Staphylococcus aureus, Listeria monocytogenes e Salmonella spp.) at slaughterhouses was evaluated in different matrix of sheep and lambs (carcass surface, faeces, fleeces and mesenteric lymph nodes) according to the Com. Reg. (EC) No 2073/2005. The 48% of sheep and 68.9% of lamb sampled carcasses resulted allocated into the marginal category for Aerobic colony count, while the 28% and 42.2% respectively were allocated into unacceptable category for Enterobacteriaceae. S.aureus was isolated more frequently in fleeces (11.5%), carcasses (12.6%) of lambs than sheep. L. monocytogenes was found in fleeces and carcass of two sheep and in faeces of four lambs, while Salmonella spp. was detected only in sheep carcasses of a single plant

Oligocene-Miocene biostratigraphy, magnetostratigraphy, and isotopic stratigraphy of the western North Atlantic

Magnetostratigraphic records from western North Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Sites 563 and 558 are correlated with the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS; Berggren et aI., 1984a, 1984b) using marine magnetic anomalies and selected biostratigraphic datum levels. The magnetochronology established is used to make direct magnetobiostratigraphic correlations that agree with previous Oligocene-early Miocene studies. However, we show that Zones NN8 partim and NN9 and associated Epoch 11 correlate with Magnetic Anomaly 5 (= Chron C5n). This contrasts with previous indirect correlations of Epoch 11 with Anomaly 5A and requires an upward adjustment of 1.5-2.0 m.y. for middle-late Miocene calcareous nannofossil zones. We correlate the middle/late Miocene boundary with Zone NN8 and earliest Chron C5n (10.4 Ma)