Determinants of National Saving in Ethiopia

This research investigates the determinants of national saving in Ethiopia over the period 1984-2014. The main objective of the study is to identify the major factors that determine national saving in Ethiopia. The ordinary least square estimation method was used to arrive at the results of the study. The result of the long run and short run models revealed that Real Gross Domestic product, investment, consumption and inflation have shown similar relationship in both models. Real Gross Demotic product is the only factor which affects national saving significantly and positively. Other factors, which positively affect national saving, are not much significant. Example, investment, consumption and inflation are factors which affects national saving both positively and in significantly in the end. Keywords: GDP, National Saving, VEC, Long run DOI: 10.7176/RHSS/11-9-02 Publication date:May 31st 202

Supply and Demand Side Determinants of Inflation in Ethiopia: Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)

Inflation is defined as a persistent increase in general price level of goods and services. Even though Ethiopia has experienced a low inflation until 2008, recently, double digit inflation has become troublesome for policy makers as well as the society. So, this study tried to examine the supply and demand side determinant of inflation in Ethiopia by employing the techniques of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for 32 years’ data spanning from 1985 to 2016. The study included macroeconomic determinant that alter or change inflation level measured by consumer price index such as money supply, real gross domestic product, world oil price, budget deficit and real effective exchange rate. The results of bound test confirmed that the long run relationship between explanatory variables and consumer price index in Ethiopia. The empirical results implied evidence of a long-run positive impact of money supply, world oil price, budget deficit and real effective exchange rate  on inflation in Ethiopia whereas as real gross domestic product insignificantly affect price level . Finally, from the finding of our study in the short run, real effective exchange rate, money supply budget deficit and world oil price are the main determinant of inflation in Ethiopia. Given these findings, the effectiveness of fiscal deficit and exchange rate as well as contractionary monetary policy as a mechanism of price stabilization in the long run and short run is recommendable for policy inference

Aflatoxin Contamination of Ethiopian Hot Red Pepper and Risk Characterization: Dietary Exposure Assessment and Estimated Aflatoxin-Induced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

አህፅሮት በምግብ ሰንሰለት ውስጥ በምግብ ወለድ ሻጋታዎች የሚመነጩ የተለያዩ መርዛማ ኬሚካሎች በሰው ጤና፣ በምግብ ንግድና በኢኮኖሚ ላይ  ከፍተኛ ጫና ያስከትላሉ፡፡ ይህ ጥናት በበርበሬ ድህረ-ምርት የምግብ ሰንሰለት ሂደት ላይ በሻጋታዎች ሊመነጩ የሚችሉ አፍላቶክሲን የሚባሉ መርዛማ ኬሚካሎች ብክለትን፣ የሰው ተጋላጭነትንና ሊከሰት የሚችሉ ተዛማች የጤና ጠንቆችን ገምግሟል፡፡ በአጠቃላይ በ25 ድብልቅ የላቦራቶሪ ናሙናዎች ላይ ምርመራ ተደርጎ በ48 ከመቶ ናሙናዎች ውስጥ አፍላቶክሲን ተገኝቷል፡፡ አፍላቶክሲን ጅ1 (aflatoxin G1) የሚባለው የአፍላቶክሲን ዓይነት በከፍተኛ ድግግሞሽና መጠን የተገኘ ሲሆን  አፍላቶክስን  ቢ1 (aflatoxin B1) የተባለው ደግሞ በተከታይነት ተመዝግቧል፡፡ በዚህ ጥናት  ወቅት ከፍተኛ የአፍላቶክሲን መጠን (ማግ/ኪግ) (43.61 አፍላቶክስን  ጅ1 እና 22.18 አፍላቶክስን  ቢ1) ከታሸጉ የበርበሬ ዱቄት ናሙናዎች ሲመዘገብ በተከታይነት ካልታሸጉ የበርበሬ ዱቀት ናሙናዎች (30.53 አፍላቶክሲን  ጅ1  እና 13.50 አፍላቶክሲን  ቢ1) ተመዝግቧል፡፡ አፍላቶክስን  ከተገኙባቸው ናሙናዎች ውስጥ 42 በመቶ በአፍላቶክሲን  ቢ1 ይዘታቸው ከአውሮፓ ሀገራት የደህንነት ደረጃ (5 ማግ/ኪግ) በላይ ሆነው ተገኝተዋል፡፡ አፍላቶክሲን በድግግሞሽ፣ በዓይነትና በመጠን በምግብ ሰንሰለቱ ሂደት ከታች ወደ ላይ የመጨመር እዝማሚያ አሳይቷል፡፡ በዚህ ጥናት አንድ ሰው በአማካይ በቀን 1.04 ናግ አፍላቶክሲን  በ1/ኪግ የሰውነት ክብደት የሚወስድ ሆኖ የተገኘ ሲሆን በዚህ መጠን 0.0188, 0.0098 እና 0.0286 የጉበት ካንሰር ክስተት/ዓመት/100,000 ሕዝብ በሄፓታይትስ ቢ  ፖዘቲቭ፣ ኔጋቲቭ  እና ጎልማሳ ማህበረሰብ እንደ አጻጻፉ ቅደም ተከተል ሊከሰት እንደሚችል ተገምቷል፡፡ ይህ የካንሰር ክስተት አንዳንድ ድርጅቶች ባስቀመጡት የካንሰር ክስተት ደረጃ መጠን (1 በ100,000 ካንሰር) ሲታይ እምብዛም አሳሳቢ አይደለም፡፡ ነገር ግን ይህ ጥናት በአንድ የምግብ ዓይነት ብቻ ላይ የተሰራ ከመሆኑም በላይ የአፍላቶክስን  ስርጭት ከዓመት ወደ ዓመት እና ከቦታ ወደ ቦታ የሚለያይ ስለሆነ የዚህ ጥናት የካንሰር ክስተት ውጤት እንደ ደህንነት መተማመኛ ሊወሰድ  አይገባም፡፡ በተጨማሪ የተጋላጭነት ጥናቱ በብዙ የምድብ ዓይነት ላይ ቢሰራ ሊከሰት የሚችለው የጤና ጠንቅ ከዚህ ሊብስ ይችላል፡፡ እንደ ማጠቃለያ የአፍላቶክሲን በድግግሞሽ፣ በዓይነትና በመጠን በምግብ ሰንሰለቱ ሂደት እየመጨረ የመሄድ እዝማሚያ አፍላቶክሲኑና ተዛማች የጤና ጠንቁ ምግቡ ለምግብነት እስከሚቀርብበት ድረስ ሊኖርና ሊከሰት እንደሚችል ማሳያ ነው፡፡ ስለዚህ አፍላቶክሲን አንድ ጊዜ በምግብ ውስጥ ከመነጨ በኋላ ሙሉ በሙሉ ለማስወገድ አዳጋች በመሆኑ ቅድመ የመከላከል ዘዴን በምግብ ሰንሰለት ላይ አትኩሮ መስራት ሊከሰት የሚችለውን ጉዳት ሊቀንስ ይችላል፡፡    Abstract Aflatoxins are toxic fungal secondary metabolites, and their presence in the food chain can cause adverse health effects, impair trade and pose a significant economic burden. This study analyzed aflatoxin contamination along a hot pepper postharvest value chain, estimated its dietary exposure and its associated potential health risk to consumers. A total of 25 composite samples were analyzed for aflatoxins using immunoaffinity column cleanup and HPLC. Aflatoxins were detected in 48 % of the tested samples. Aflatoxin G1 was recorded at highest frequencies and contamination levels followed by AFB1. Uppermost contaminations (µg/kg) were recorded from packed pepper powder (43.61 AFG1 and 22.18 AFB1) followed by unpacked pepper powder (30.53 AFG1 and 13.50 AFB1). Five (42 %) of the positive samples exceeded the EU regulatory limits for AFB1 (> 5 µg/kg). Aflatoxin detection frequencies, aflatoxin types and contamination levels generally increased up along the chain. The mean daily intake dose was found as 1.04 ng AFB1/kg bw/day and the cancer risk was estimated to be 0.0188, 0.0098 and 0.0286 cancer cases/year/100,000 population of hepatitis B surface antigen positive, negative and adult subpopulation, respectively. This cancer risk level can be considered “essentially negligible” as compared to 1 x 10-5 cancer risk level established by some agencies. However, as this study was dependent on a single food commodity, and aflatoxin contamination level varies from year to year and location to locations, the risk level of this study should not be taken as assurance for safe risk level. In addition, if aggregate dietary exposure is considered, possible health risk would be high. In conclusion, the increased trends of detection frequencies, aflatoxin types and contamination levels up along the value chain signified the possible occurrence of the toxin and their associated health risk as the food commodity approaches consumption. Because complete elimination of aflatoxin is almost unachievable once contamination has happened, preventative management efforts should target the value chain

Thermal Inactivation Kinetics of Aflatoxigenic Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus Conidia Isolated from Ethiopian Hot Red Pepper Powder

አህፅሮት ምግብን በሙቀት ኃይል ማብሰል ለዘመናት የቆየ ሥልጣኔ ሲሆን ከጥቅሞቹ አንዱ በምግብ ውስጥ የሚገኙ ምግብ-ወለድ በሽታ አምጭ  እና ምግብ-አበላሽ የሆኑ ደቂቅ-ዘአካላትን ለመቀነስ ወይም ለማጥፋት ይረዳል፡፡ በምግብ ውስጥ የሚገኙ ደቂቅ-ዘአካላት ግን የሙቀት ኃይልን በመቋቋም ደረጃ የየራሳቸው ባህሪ አላቸው፡፡ በዚህ ጥናት በበርበሬ ዱቀት ውስጥ በሚገኙ  በበሽታ አምጭነታቸውና በምግብ-አበላሽነታቸው በሚታወቁ ሁለት የሻጋታ ዓይነቶች ላይ የሙቀት ኃይልን የመቋቋም ባህሪያቸው ጥናት ተደርጎባቸዋል፡፡ ጥናቱ በ55፣ 65፣ 75፣ 85 እና 95oሴ  ለ30፣ 45፣ 60፣ 75 እና  90 ደቂቃ  በኦቶማቲክ ውሃ ማሞቂያ መሣሪያ ውስጥ በማሞቅ ተሰርቷል፡፡ በዚህ ጥናት መሠረት አስፔርጅለስ ፓራስቲከስ የሚባለው ሻጋታ አስፔርጅለስ ፊላቨስ ከሚባለው ሻጋታ በላይ የሙቀት ኃይልን የሚቋቋም ሆኖ ተገኝታል፡፡ በተጠቀምነው የሙቀት ኃይል (55 - 95o ሴ) የአስፔርጅለስ ፊላቨስን ቁጥር በ90%  ለመቀነስ የወሰደው ሰዓት ከ119.1-14.1 ደቂቃ ሲሆን  ለአስፔርጅለስ ፓራስቲከስ ግን ከ147-17.1 ደቂቃ ወስዷል፡፡ ምግብ ሲዘጋጅ የሚጨመር  የምግብ ጨው  በአስፔርጅለስ ፊላቨስ  የሙቀት ኃይልን የመቋቋም ባህሪ ላይ ያለው ጫና ከላይ በተገለፁት  የሙቀት ኃይል  በተለያየ የጨው መጠን (በ2፣ 6 እና 8 በመቶ) ተጠንቶ የጨው መጠን ሲጨምር የአስፔርጅለስ ፊላቨስ የሙቀት ኃይልን የመቋቋም ባህሪ እንዲጨምር አድርጎአል፡፡ ከ2-8 በመቶ የጨው መጠን  ከላይ በተገለፁት  የሙቀት ኃይል የአስፔርጅለስ ፊላቨስን ቁጥር በ90 %  ለመቀነስ ከ119.7-188.6፣ 36.1-41.5፣ 29.6-32.9፣ 20.4-21.7 እና 45.6-48.9  ደቂቃ ወስዷል፡፡ የዚህ ጥናት ውጤት በድህረ-ምርት የምግብ የቆይታ ጊዜን ለማራዘም በሚደረጉ ሂደቶች ውስጥ እንደ መነሻ መረጃ ሊጠቅም ይችላል፡፡ ነገር ግን የጥናቱን ውጤት ለመጠቀም በእያንዳንዱ የምግብ አዘገጃጀትና የምግቡ የይዘት ሁኔታ ላይ በመሞርኮዝ ሰፊና ጥልቅ ጥናት ማካሄድ ይፈልጋል፡፡   Abstract Thermal food processing is known to inactivate harmful microorganisms in foods. However different microbes have varying degrees of heat resistance. During this study, thermal inactivation characteristics of aflatoxigenic Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus conidia isolated and characterized from Ethiopian hot red pepper powder were determined by the survivor curve method in digital water bath to realize their fate and stability under thermal food processing. The experiment was done at 55, 65, 75, 85 and 95 oC with exposure time of 30, 45, 60, 75 and 90 min., and also at different NaCl concentrations for A. flavus. The D-values for A. flavus and A. parasiticus ranged from 119.1-14.1 and 147-17.1 min. respectively with Z-values of 35.2 and 34.4 oC in the written order. Both fungi were found sensitive to the moist heating following the first-order kinetics model. Aspergillus parasiticus was found resistant than A. flavus. The D-values for A. flavus at 2-8 % NaCl ranged from 119.7-188.6, 36.1-41.5, 29.6-32.9, 20.4-21.7 and 45.6-48.9 min. at 55, 65, 75, 85 and 95 oC, respectively. The NaCl decreased thermal sensitivity of the conidia and affected the linearity of inactivation. These results may serve as baseline information for postharvest pepper-based food preservation.  However, for its practical application, we recommend further detailed studies on respective food processing practices and food matrix

Impact of institutional quality on economic performance of Eastern Africa: a panel data analysis

Nowadays, studies argued that international difference in prosperity across a country is the matter institutional quality. Thus, the poor economic performance of African’s is linked to their weak institutional quality. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which institutional quality affect economic performance of 14 selected East African Countries; Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Mauritius, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe, over the period 2005-2016, using fixed effect and System GMM methods. The finding of this study confirms with the existing empirical study that economic institutions matter for economic performance among which control of corruption and government effectiveness has positive impact on economic performance, while rule of law has adverse impact. The finding of this study implies that that Eastern Africa with better institutions has a higher economic performance. Therefore, the Eastern Africa countries should improve those institutions that have positive impact, and promote and change those institutions that have adverse effect in way that it can promote economic development

Factors Affecting Profitability of Insurance Companies in Ethiopia: Panel Evidence

Profitability is one of the most important objectives of financial management because one goal of financial management is to maximize the owner` s wealth. This paper examined the effects of firm specific factors (age of company, size of company, leverage ratio, premium growth rate liquidity ratio and tangibility of assets) on profitability proxied by ROA. Profitability is dependent variable while age of company, size of company, premium growth rate,leverage liquidity ratio and tangibility of assets) are independent variables. The sample in this study includes nine of the listed insurance companies for twelve years (2005-2016). Secondary data obtained from the financial statements (Balance sheet and Profit/Loss account) of insurance companies, financial publications of NBE are analyzed.Panel data analyzed using Random Effect Model (FEM) after testing the appropriateness of the model with Fixed Effect and Pooled regression model. From the regression results; size,premium growth rate and liquidity and age are identified as most important determinant factors of profitability hence premium growth rate and size, are positively related. In contrast liquidity and age negatively but significantly related with profitability. Lastly, leverage and tangibility of asset are not significantly related with profitability

Sectorial Transition Dilemma of Smallholder Grain Farmers To Light Manufacturing Industry in Jimma Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia

This research was designed to assess willingness, ability, motive, preference and determinants of smallholder major grain farmer’s transition dilemma to light manufacturing industry in Jimma Zone, Oromia Region, Ethiopia. The participants of the study were selected using two stage non probabilistic, purposive sampling. Then, we prepared sample frame from each Kebeles fall in our selection pool. Finally, 399 household heads (farmers) were selected for this study, using stratified sampling. Then, primary data collected via structured questionnaire was analyzed descriptively and in binary logistic regression. Accordingly, majority of smallholder major grain farmers need to stay on their current crop farming. Increasing these products productivity and price is one possible means of intervention to improve the areas smallholder farmer’s livelihood. The descriptive statistics depicts that, small holder farmers’ transitional dilemma to light manufacturing sector and the fate of industrialization plan in Jimma zone is at its infant stage and those small holder farmers have almost no any awareness, no know how about technologies, not trained and they have no entrepreneurial skill. The result revels that the major determinants of smallholder grain farmers sectorial transition plan in the study area was significantly affected by age, sex,  marital status, skilled labour access, access to credit, price product expectation, place,Awareness, Education level, Entrepreneur skill, Training,  Transport and Energy.Hence, effort should be geared in manner that build farmers capacity through adult literacy program, formal education and with short term training. This research was designed to assess willingness, ability, motive, preference and determinants of smallholder major grain farmer’s transition dilemma to light manufacturing industry in Jimma Zone, Oromia Region, Ethiopia. The participants of the study were selected using two stage non probabilistic, purposive sampling. Then, we prepared sample frame from each Kebeles fall in our selection pool. Finally, 399 household heads (farmers) were selected for this study, using stratified sampling. Then, primary data collected via structured questionnaire was analyzed descriptively and in binary logistic regression. Accordingly, majority of smallholder major grain farmers need to stay on their current crop farming. Increasing these products productivity and price is one possible means of intervention to improve the areas smallholder farmer’s livelihood. The descriptive statistics depicts that, small holder farmers’ transitional dilemma to light manufacturing sector and the fate of industrialization plan in Jimma zone is at its infant stage and those small holder farmers have almost no any awareness, no know how about technologies, not trained and they have no entrepreneurial skill. The result revels that the major determinants of smallholder grain farmers sectorial transition plan in the study area was significantly affected by age, sex,  marital status, skilled labour access, access to credit, price product expectation, place,Awareness, Education level, Entrepreneur skill, Training,  Transport and Energy.Hence, effort should be geared in manner that build farmers capacity through adult literacy program, formal education and with short term training. 

Impact of Micro-Finance on Women’s Economic Empowerment: A Case study in Gimbo Woreda, South Nation, Nationalities and Peoples Region, Ethiopia

In a subsistence agriculture and low income developing countries, microfinance provision to rural areas is taken as a mechanism to reduce poverty and to empower women economically. MFI have made important contributions to poor people particularly to women, by providing a financial service to those who are excluded from the formal financial sector. The study aims to assess the impact of microfinance on women economic empowerment with a case study of Omo Microfinance Institution in Gimbo woreda. By using multi-stage sampling method, the primary data was collected from a total of 200 rural women of which 115 of them are non-clients of Omo Microfinance Institution, which are used as control group. The control groups are future clients that are very similar to clients in their overall characteristics. The empirical analysis of this research was carried out both by descriptive statistics and regression analysis. The regression analysis part was used propensity score matching method of analysis. The estimated logistic regression result depict that women’s involvement in major decision making is significantly affected by age, women’s spouse level of education, number of family size, head of the house hold, being member of other MFI and amount of initial wealth.  Women’s level of education, marital status and ecology were variables that are insignificant in affecting women’s economic empowerment. The propensity score matching estimation result reveals that OMFI has significant effect in increasing average yearly household income and personal cash saving of its client but it is insignificant in affecting positively women’s access and ownership and control over assets. Thus, the program intervention has been resulted a positive impact on women’s economic empowerment in the study area. Therefore, it is recommended that credit provision of OMFI should give priority in asset formation, access to resources, acquire asset and able to control over it

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIVE IMPACT OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ETHIOPIA, USING ARDL APPROACH TO CO-INTEGRATION: WHICH POLICY IS MORE POTENT?

Empirical investigation on the comparative potency of monetary and fiscal policies is still dubious among two major schools of thought in economics so called classical and Keynesian. Hence, this paper investigates the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in affecting economic growth by employing Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag Model (ARDL) for the time spanning from 1975 to 2017. The proxies used in this study for monetary and fiscal policy were Broad money supply (M2) and government consumption expenditure respectively while real GDP at constant prices in 2010 is used as proxy for economic growth in Ethiopia. Anderson and Jordan (1968) “St. Louis equation’’ has been used to estimate the comparative potency of monetary and fiscal policies. The empirical results indicate that both the monetary and fiscal policies have equal statistically significant and positive impact on economic growth in Ethiopia with different significance level and magnitude. Besides of equal effectiveness, the elasticity of real output with respect to fiscal policy variable is greater than the elasticity with respect to money supply which show fiscal policy is more effective than monetary policy in influencing Real GDP in the long-run. However, in the short run, the fiscal policy is effective while that of the monetary policy proxy by money supply is ineffective in affecting output growth in Ethiopia. Therefore, to have continuous and sustainable economic growth, the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies are vital and the lack of this coordination leads to a sharp downturn of overall economic performance, even can hurt the economy

Toward the design of a tailored training course for birth assistance: an Ethiopian experience.

Simulation in healthcare has already demonstrated extraordinary potential in high-income countries. However, to date, few authors have explored the possibility of applying simulation-based training in African settings, highlighting the necessity of need-based training protocols capable of addressing economic, social, and cultural aspects. In this framework, this research investigates the main features a simulation training course on umbilical cord care and placenta management should have to be considered effective and sustainable in an African healthcare environment. Local facilitators were identified as the best resources for defining course contents and providing technical lectures to mitigate cultural, linguistic, and social issues. For the training program, the design of a new low-cost medium-fidelity simulator was explored and a preliminary evaluation was performed. Finally, the propensity of 25 students to attend a simulation training course was investigated using a questionnaire. The attitude of the enrolled students was positive, endorsing the future introduction of simulation training into the educational offers of Ethiopian colleges