Outcomes of Telepractice Speech Therapy for an Adult who Covertly Stutters: A Case Study

Purpose: To report on telepractice-based holistic speech-language therapy services to reduce avoidance of stuttering and increase positive self-image as a communicator for an adult who covertly stutters as compared to baseline. Method: A single case study design was employed with baseline, intervention, and maintenance phases completed via telepractice. The participant received bi-weekly speech-language therapy services, including both individual and group sessions. The Overall Assessment of the Speaker’s Experience of Stuttering-Adult (OASES-A) and Stuttering Severity Instrument-4th Edition (SSI-4) assessed the participant’s overt and covert stuttering behaviors at pre-treatment and post-treatment timeframes. Weekly data points of participant’s self-report of avoidance of stuttering during therapy sessions and during the week between therapy sessions as well as researcher calculated frequency of stuttering were measured. Visual inspection was utilized to analyze treatment outcomes. Results: The participant demonstrated a reduction in avoidance of stuttering within sessions as well as the week prior to a session, as compared to baseline. Additionally, the participant presented with an increased percent of words stuttered (%WS) following into maintenance as compared to baseline. Visual inspection of weekly data points of frequency of stuttering and self-report of avoidance appeared to present promising results throughout the intervention phase with potential treatment effects continuing into the maintenance phase. Conclusion: Results of the current study demonstrate preliminary evidence for potential positive outcomes of holistic speech therapy via telepractice for people who covertly stutter

Geothermal heating in the Panama Basin. Part I: hydrography of the basin

The Panama Basin serves as a laboratory to investigate abyssal water upwelling. The basin has only a single abyssal water inflow pathway through the narrow Ecuador Trench. The estimated critical inflow through the Trench reaches 0.34 ± 0.07 m s−1, resulting in an abyssal water volume inflow of 0.29 ± 0.07 Sv. The same trench carries the return flow of basin waters that starts just 200 m above the bottom and is approximately 400 m deeper than the depth of the next possible deep water exchange pathway at the Carnegie Ridge Saddle. The curvature of temperature‐salinity diagrams is used to differentiate the effect of geothermal heating on the deep Panama Basin waters that was found to reach as high as 2200 m depth, which is about 500 m above the upper boundary of the abyssal water layer

Geothermal heating in the Panama Basin. Part II: abyssal water mass transformation

Diabatic upwelling of abyssal waters is investigated in the Panama Basin employing the water mass transformation framework of Walin [1982]. We find that, in large areas of the basin, the bottom boundary layer is very weakly stratified and extends hundreds of meters above the sea floor. Within the weakly stratified bottom boundary layer (wsBBL) neutral density layers intercept the bottom of the basin. The area of these density layer incrops increases gradually as the abyssal waters become lighter. Large incrop areas are associated with strong diabatic upwelling of abyssal water, geothermal heating being the largest buoyancy source. While a significant amount of water mass transformation is due to extreme turbulence downstream of the Ecuador Trench, the only abyssal water inflow passage, water mass transformation across the upper boundary of abyssal water layer is accomplished almost entirely by geothermal heating

Critical quantum chaos and the one dimensional Harper model

We study the quasiperiodic Harper's model in order to give further support for a possible universality of the critical spectral statistics. At the mobility edge we numerically obtain a scale-invariant distribution of the bands $S$, which is closely described by a semi-Poisson $P(S)=4S \exp(-2S)$ curve. The $\exp (-2S)$ tail appears when the mobility edge is approached from the metal while $P(S)$ is asymptotically log-normal for the insulator. The multifractal critical density of states also leads to a sub-Poisson linear number variance $\Sigma_{2}(E)\propto 0.041E$.Comment: 4 pages, 4 eps figure

The Met Office Global Coupled model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 & GC3.1) configurations

The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Amongst other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components are in companion papers), and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present-day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter timescales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2-AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2-AO, many aspects of the present-day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extra-tropical variability and top-of-atmosphere & surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking

Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)

Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia?

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict the summer (JJAS) surface-air temperature over North East Asia. DePreSys3 is based on a high resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled climate prediction system (~ 60 km in the atmosphere and ~ 25 km in the ocean), which is full-field initialized from 1960 to 2014 (26 start-dates). We find skill in predicting surface-air temperature, relative to a long-term trend, for 1 and 2–5 year leadtimes over North East Asia, the North Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Europe. DePreSys3 also reproduces the interdecadal evolution of surface-air temperature over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and North East Asia for both lead times, along with the strong warming that occurred in the mid-1990s over both areas. Composite analysis reveals that the skill at capturing interdecadal changes in North East Asia is associated with the propagation of an atmospheric Rossby wave, which follows the subtropical jet and modulates surface-air temperature from Europe to Eastern Asia. We hypothesise that this ‘circumglobal teleconnection’ pattern is excited over the Atlantic Ocean and is related to Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the associated changes in precipitation over the Sahel and the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This mechanism is robust for the 2–5 year lead-time. For the 1 year lead-time the Pacific Ocean also plays an important role in leading to skill in predicting SAT over Northeast Asia. Increased temperatures and precipitation over the western Pacific Ocean was found to be associated with a Pacific-Japan like-pattern, which can affect East Asia’s climate

Mechanisms of decadal variability in the Labrador Sea and the wider North Atlantic in a high-resolution climate model

A necessary step before assessing the performance of decadal predictions is the evaluation of the processes that bring memory to the climate system, both in climate models and observations. These mechanisms are particularly relevant in the North Atlantic, where the ocean circulation, related to both the Subpolar Gyre and the Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is thought to be important for driving significant heat content anomalies. Recently, a rapid decline in observed densities in the deep Labrador Sea has pointed to an ongoing slowdown of the AMOC strength taking place since the mid 90s, a decline also hinted by in-situ observations from the RAPID array. This study explores the use of Labrador Sea densities as a precursor of the ocean circulation changes, by analysing a 300-year long simulation with the state-of-the-art coupled model HadGEM3-GC2. The major drivers of Labrador Sea density variability are investigated, and are characterised by three major contributions. First, the integrated effect of local surface heat fluxes, mainly driven by year-to-year changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which accounts for 62% of the total variance. Additionally, two multidecadal-to-centennial contributions from the Greenland-Scotland Ridge outflows are quantified; the first associated with freshwater exports via the East Greenland Current, and the second with density changes in the Denmark Strait Overflow. Finally, evidence is shown that decadal trends in Labrador Sea densities are followed by important atmospheric impacts. In particular, a negative winter NAO response appears to follow the positive Labrador Sea density trends, and provides a phase reversal mechanism