Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Blood-Screening Strategies for West Nile Virus in the United States

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is endemic in the US, varying seasonally and by geographic region. WNV can be transmitted by blood transfusion, and mandatory screening of blood for WNV was recently introduced throughout the US. Guidelines for selecting cost-effective strategies for screening blood for WNV do not exist. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis for screening blood for WNV using a computer-based mathematical model, and using data from prospective studies, retrospective studies, and published literature. For three geographic areas with varying WNV-transmission intensity and length of transmission season, the model was used to estimate lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios associated with alternative screening strategies in a target population of blood-transfusion recipients. We compared the status quo (baseline screening using a donor questionnaire) to several strategies which differed by nucleic acid testing of either pooled or individual samples, universal versus targeted screening of donations designated for immunocompromised patients, and seasonal versus year-long screening. In low-transmission areas with short WNV seasons, screening by questionnaire alone was the most cost-effective strategy. In areas with high levels of WNV transmission, seasonal screening of individual samples and restricting screening to blood donations designated for immunocompromised recipients was the most cost-effective strategy. Seasonal screening of the entire recipient pool added minimal clinical benefit, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding US$1.7 million per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Year-round screening offered no additional benefit compared to seasonal screening in any of the transmission settings. CONCLUSIONS: In areas with high levels of WNV transmission, seasonal screening of individual samples and restricting screening to blood donations designated for immunocompromised recipients is cost saving. In areas with low levels of infection, a status-quo strategy using a standard questionnaire is cost-effective

A phylogeny-based sampling strategy and power calculator informs genome-wide associations study design for microbial pathogens

Whole genome sequencing is increasingly used to study phenotypic variation among infectious pathogens and to evaluate their relative transmissibility, virulence, and immunogenicity. To date, relatively little has been published on how and how many pathogen strains should be selected for studies associating phenotype and genotype. There are specific challenges when identifying genetic associations in bacteria which often comprise highly structured populations. Here we consider general methodological questions related to sampling and analysis focusing on clonal to moderately recombining pathogens. We propose that a matched sampling scheme constitutes an efficient study design, and provide a power calculator based on phylogenetic convergence. We demonstrate this approach by applying it to genomic datasets for two microbial pathogens: Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Campylobacter species. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13073-014-0101-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Poverty, Disease, and the Ecology of Complex Systems

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems—such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change—to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development

Polymorphic Amplified Typing Sequences (PATS) Strain Typing System Accurately Discriminates a Set of Temporally and Spatially Disparate Escherichia coli O157 Isolates Associated with Human Infection

Polymorphic Amplified Typing Sequences (PATS) is a PCR-based Escherichia coli O157 (O157) strain typing system. Here, we show that PATS compares excellently with Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE) in that both methods cluster geographically diverse O157 isolates similarly. Comparative analysis of the results obtained in this simulated “blind” study attests to the discriminating power and applicability of PATS to epidemiological/nosocomial situations

Alcohol, Hospital Discharge, and Socioeconomic Risk Factors for Default from Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment in Rural South Africa: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Default from multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment remains a major barrier to cure and epidemic control. We sought to identify patient risk factors for default from MDR-TB treatment and high-risk time periods for default in relation to hospitalization and transition to outpatient care. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 225 patients who initiated MDR-TB treatment between 2007 through 2010 at a rural TB hospital in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Results: Fifty percent of patients were cured or completed treatment, 27% defaulted, 14% died, 4% failed treatment, and 5% transferred out. Recent alcohol use was common (63% of patients). In multivariable proportional hazards regression, older age (hazard ratio [HR]= 0.97 [95% confidence interval 0.94-0.99] per year of greater age), formal housing (HR=0.38 [0.19-0.78]), and steady employment (HR=0.41 [0.19-0.90]) were associated with decreased risk of default, while recent alcohol use (HR=2.1 [1.1-4.0]), recent drug use (HR=2.0 [1.0-3.6]), and Coloured (mixed ancestry) ethnicity (HR=2.3 [1.1-5.0]) were associated with increased risk of default (P<0.05). Defaults occurred throughout the first 18 months of the two-year treatment course but were especially frequent among alcohol users after discharge from the initial four-to-five-month in-hospital phase of treatment, with the highest default rates occurring among alcohol users within two months of discharge. Default rates during the first two months after discharge were also elevated for patients who received care from mobile clinics. Conclusions: Among patients who were not cured or did not complete MDR-TB treatment, the majority defaulted from treatment. Younger, economically-unstable patients and alcohol and drug users were particularly at risk. For alcohol users as well as mobile-clinic patients, the early outpatient treatment phase is a high-risk period for default that could be targeted in efforts to increase treatment completion rates

Patients\u27 perspectives of tuberculosis treatment challenges and barriers to treatment adherence in Ukraine: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES: To understand the challenges faced by patients with tuberculosis (TB) and factors that influence TB treatment adherence in Ukraine. DESIGN: Qualitative study. SETTING: TB treatment facilities in Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine. PARTICIPANTS: Sixty adults who had undergone treatment for drug-sensitive TB between June 2012 and August 2015. METHODS: We conducted semistructured, in-depth, individual interviews among a purposively selected clinical sample of patients previously treated for drug-sensitive TB. Interview content encompassed WHO\u27s framework for barriers to adherence to long-term therapies and included questions about patient preferences and motivators concerning treatment adherence. We examined treatment experience across strata defined by previously identified risk correlates of non-adherence. RESULTS: Among 60 participants, 19 (32.8%) were HIV positive, 12 (20.3%) had substance use disorder and 9 (15.0%) had not completed TB treatment. Respondents discussed the psychological distress associated with hospital-based TB care, as well as perceived unsupportive, antagonistic interactions with TB providers as major challenges to treatment adherence. An additional barrier to successful treatment completion included the financial toll of lost income during TB treatment, which was exacerbated by the additional costs of ancillary medications and transportation to ambulatory TB clinics. The high pill burden of TB treatment also undermined adherence. These challenges were endorsed among participants with and without major risk factors for non-adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight important barriers to TB treatment adherence in this study population and suggest specific interventions that may be beneficial in mitigating high rates of poor treatment outcomes for TB in Ukraine

Independent large scale duplications in multiple M. tuberculosis lineages overlapping the same genomic region

Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of most human tuberculosis, infects one third of the world's population and kills an estimated 1.7 million people a year. With the world-wide emergence of drug resistance, and the finding of more functional genetic diversity than previously expected, there is a renewed interest in understanding the forces driving genome evolution of this important pathogen. Genetic diversity in M. tuberculosis is dominated by single nucleotide polymorphisms and small scale gene deletion, with little or no evidence for large scale genome rearrangements seen in other bacteria. Recently, a single report described a large scale genome duplication that was suggested to be specific to the Beijing lineage. We report here multiple independent large-scale duplications of the same genomic region of M. tuberculosis detected through whole-genome sequencing. The duplications occur in strains belonging to both M. tuberculosis lineage 2 and 4, and are thus not limited to Beijing strains. The duplications occur in both drug-resistant and drug susceptible strains. The duplicated regions also have substantially different boundaries in different strains, indicating different originating duplication events. We further identify a smaller segmental duplication of a different genomic region of a lab strain of H37Rv. The presence of multiple independent duplications of the same genomic region suggests either instability in this region, a selective advantage conferred by the duplication, or both. The identified duplications suggest that large-scale gene duplication may be more common in M. tuberculosis than previously considere

Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China

IMPORTANCE: Sustained spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has happened in major US cities. Capacity needs in cities in China could inform the planning of local health care resources. OBJECTIVES: To describe and compare the intensive care unit (ICU) and inpatient bed needs for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2 cities in China to estimate the peak ICU bed needs in US cities if an outbreak equivalent to that in Wuhan occurs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This comparative effectiveness study analyzed the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, from January 10 to February 29, 2020. EXPOSURES: Timing of disease control measures relative to timing of SARS-CoV-2 community spread. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Number of critical and severe patient-days and peak number of patients with critical and severe illness during the study period. RESULTS: In Wuhan, strict disease control measures were implemented 6 weeks after sustained local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Between January 10 and February 29, 2020, patients with COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 429 (25-1143) patients in the ICU and 1521 (111-7202) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 19 425 patients (24.5 per 10 000 adults) were hospitalized, 9689 (12.2 per 10 000 adults) were considered in serious condition, and 2087 (2.6 per 10 000 adults) needed critical care per day. In Guangzhou, strict disease control measures were implemented within 1 week of case importation. Between January 24 and February 29, COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 9 (7-12) patients in the ICU and 17 (15-26) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 15 patients were in critical condition and 38 were classified as having serious illness. The projected number of prevalent critically ill patients at the peak of a Wuhan-like outbreak in US cities was estimated to range from 2.2 to 4.4 per 10 000 adults, depending on differences in age distribution and comorbidity (ie, hypertension) prevalence. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, the number of patients with serious COVID-19 illness continued to rise, exceeding local hospitalization and ICU capacities for at least a month. Plans are urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks on the local health care systems in US cities

Eff ectiveness of reactive oral cholera vaccination in rural Haiti: a case-control study and bias-indicator analysis

Background Between April and June, 2012, a reactive cholera vaccination campaign was done in Haiti with an oral inactivated bivalent whole-cell vaccine. We aimed to assess the eff ectiveness of the vaccine in a case-control study and to assess the likelihood of bias in that study in a bias-indicator study. Methods Residents of Bocozel or Grand Saline who were eligible for the vaccination campaign (ie, age ≥12 months, not pregnant, and living in the region at the time of the vaccine campaign) were included. In the primary case-control study, cases had acute watery diarrhoea, sought treatment at one of three participating cholera treatment units, and had a stool sample positive for cholera by culture. For each case, four control individuals who did not seek treatment for acute watery diarrhoea were matched by location of residence, enrolment time (within 2 weeks of the case), and age (1–4 years, 5–15 years, and >15 years). Cases in the bias-indicator study were individuals with acute watery diarrhoea with a negative stool sample for cholera. Controls were selected in the same manner as in the primary case-control study. Trained staff used standard laboratory procedures to do rapid tests and stool cultures from study cases. Participants were interviewed to collect data on sociodemographic characteristics, risk factors for cholera, and self-reported vaccination. Data were analysed by conditional logistic regression, adjusting for matching factors. Findings From Oct 24, 2012, to March 9, 2014, 114 eligible individuals presented with acute watery diarrhoea and were enrolled, 25 of whom were subsequently excluded. 47 participants were analysed as cases in the vaccine eff ectiveness case-control study and 42 as cases in the bias-indicator study. 33 (70%) of 47 cholera cases self-reported vaccination versus 167 (89%) of 188 controls (vaccine eff ectiveness 63%, 95% CI 8–85). 27 (57%) of 47 cases had certifi ed vaccination versus 147 (78%) of 188 controls (vaccine eff ectiveness 58%, 13–80). Neither self-reported nor verifi ed vaccination was signifi cantly associated with non-cholera diarrhoea (vaccine eff ectiveness 18%, 95% CI –208 to 78 by self-report and –21%, –238 to 57 by verifi ed vaccination). Interpretation Bivalent whole-cell oral cholera vaccine eff ectively protected against cholera in Haiti from 4 months to 24 months after vaccination. Vaccination is an important component of eff orts to control cholera epidemics