Comparing the Penman-Monteith equation and a modified Jarvis-Stewart model with an artificial neural network to estimate stand-scale transpiration and canopy conductance

The responses of canopy conductance to variation in solar radiation, vapour pressure deficit and soil moisture have been extensively modelled using a Jarvis-Stewart (JS) model. Modelled canopy conductance has then often been used to predict transpiration using the Penman-Monteith (PM) model. We previously suggested an alternative approach in which the JS model is modified to directly estimate transpiration rather than canopy conductance. In the present study we used this alternative approach to model tree water fluxes from an Australian native forest over an annual cycle. For comparative purposes we also modelled canopy conductance and estimated transpiration via the PM model. Finally we applied an artificial neural network as a statistical benchmark to compare the performance of both models. Both the PM and modified JS models were parameterised using solar radiation, vapour pressure deficit and soil moisture as inputs with results that compare well with previous studies. Both models performed comparably well during the summer period. However, during winter the PM model was found to fail during periods of high rates of transpiration. In contrast, the modified JS model was able to replicate observed sapflow measurements throughout the year although it too tended to underestimate rates of transpiration in winter under conditions of high rates of transpiration. Both approaches to modelling transpiration gave good agreement with hourly, daily and total sums of sapflow measurements with the modified JS and PM models explaining 87% and 86% of the variance, respectively. We conclude that these three approaches have merit at different time-scales. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Biophysical impacts of climate change on Australia's forests. Contribution of Work Package 2 to the Forest Vulnerability Assessment

The assessment of the vulnerability of Australian forests to climate change is an initiative of the Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council (NRMMC). The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) was approached to carry out a comprehensive Forest Vulnerability Assessment (FVA). NCCARF engaged four research groups to investigate distinct aspects in relation to the vulnerability of forests, each of which has produced a report. In addition a fifth group was engaged to create a summary and synthesis report of the project. This report – Biophysical impacts of climate change on Australia's forests - is the second in the series. It presents a review of the primary literature on evidence of impacts of climate change on Australian forests. Existing evidence for climate change impacts in relation to direct stresses (CO2, temperature and rainfall), indirect stresses (fire, pests, pathogens and weeds) and plant processes (growth, transpiration and phenology) is discussed. The report concludes with a discussion of the overall impact of climate change on vegetation and the ecosystem services provided by forests. It should be noted that there have been several excellent reviews of climate change impacts on Australian forests as well as reports on climate change impacts on natural heritage and biodiversity. Conclusions drawn from these earlier reviews are not repeated. Instead, the report focuses on drawing evidence from the primary literature, including grey literature. Relevant literature was identified by bibliographic searches and in consultation with experts across Australia. This review highlighted a number of uncertainties involved in assessing forest vulnerability to climate change. These include uncertainty over changes in the climate, the ecosystem-scale responses to climate change, and interactions of climate change impacts with other global change processes. There is, however, clear evidence of the impact of some individual factors

Interactive effects of elevated CO <inf>2</inf> and drought on nocturnal water fluxes in Eucalyptus saligna

Nocturnal water flux has been observed in trees under a variety of environmental conditions and can be a significant contributor to diel canopy water flux. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 (elevated [CO 2]) can have an important effect on day-time plant water fluxes, but it is not known whether it also affects nocturnal water fluxes. We examined the effects of elevated [CO 2] on nocturnal water flux of field-grown Eucalyptus saligna trees using sap flux through the tree stem expressed on a sapwood area (J s) and leaf area (E t) basis. After 19 months growth under well-watered conditions, drought was imposed by withholding water for 5 months in the summer, ending with a rain event that restored soil moisture. Reductions in J s and E t were observed during the severe drought period in the dry treatment under elevated [CO 2], but not during moderate- and post-drought periods. Elevated [CO 2] affected night-time sap flux density which included the stem recharge period, called 'total night flux' (19:00 to 05:00, J s,r), but not during the post-recharge period, which primarily consisted of canopy transpiration (23:00 to 05:00, J s,c). Elevated [CO 2] wet (EW) trees exhibited higher J s,r than ambient [CO 2] wet trees (AW) indicating greater water flux in elevated [CO 2] under well-watered conditions. However, under drought conditions, elevated [CO 2] dry (ED) trees exhibited significantly lower J s,r than ambient [CO 2] dry trees (AD), indicating less water flux during stem recharge under elevated [CO 2]. J s,c did not differ between ambient and elevated [CO 2]. Vapour pressure deficit (D) was clearly the major influence on night-time sap flux. D was positively correlated with J s,r and had its greatest impact on J s,r at high D in ambient [CO 2]. Our results suggest that elevated [CO 2] may reduce night-time water flux in E. saligna when soil water content is low and D is high. While elevated [CO 2] affected J s,r, it did not affect day-time water flux in wet soil, suggesting that the responses of J s,r to environmental factors cannot be directly inferred from day-time patterns. Changes in J s,r are likely to influence pre-dawn leaf water potential, and plant responses to water stress. Nocturnal fluxes are clearly important for predicting effects of climate change on forest physiology and hydrology. © 2011 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press. A ll rights reserved

Optimality Theory informed Carbon Storage Allocation under drought

Understanding forest ecosystem functioning has never been more pressing in the context of projected climate change and human-induced disturbance. Both are major stressors on plants competing for limiting nutrients. In the face of such stressors, allocation of carbon to storage reserves in the form of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) allows plants to maintain a reserve carbon pool in anticipation of future stresses that may limit photosynthesis. However, investing in storage reserves comes at the cost of foregoing the immediate use of the carbon for growth, creating a trade-off between storage and growth. Here, we propose a framework for optimality-based modelling of carbon storage allocation based on a plant population dynamics model for simulating changes in plant carbon allocation in response to drought. First, we use optimal control theory to identify patterns of plant growth and carbon storage based on the ‘active carbon storage’ hypothesis. Second, we use a gap model to explore differences in traits that determine plants’ carbon storage strategies, such as, carbon utilisation rate (fast-slow spectrum) and the latency of switching between growth and storage (risky-safe spectrum). Third, we will apply an eco-evolutionary vegetation model to elucidate the underlying mechanisms driving trait evolution across stress gradients, quantified by stress stochasticity (variance of stress duration) and stress intensity (average stress duration). Our framework provides an evolutionarily consistent way to simulate plant carbon allocation in response to drought, and can therefore be applied to investigate the functional response of global forest ecosystems under unprecedented future climatic conditions

Incorporating non-stomatal limitation improves the performance of leaf and canopy models at high vapour pressure deficit

Vapour pressure deficit (D) is projected to increase in the future as temperature rises. In response to increased D, stomatal conductance (gs) and photosynthesis (A) are reduced, which may result in significant reductions in terrestrial carbon, water and energy fluxes. It is thus important for gas exchange models to capture the observed responses of gs and A with increasing D. We tested a series of coupled A-gs models against leaf gas exchange measurements from the Cumberland Plain Woodland (Australia), where D regularly exceeds 2 kPa and can reach 8 kPa in summer. Two commonly used A-gs models were not able to capture the observed decrease in A and gs with increasing D at the leaf scale. To explain this decrease in A and gs, two alternative hypotheses were tested: hydraulic limitation (i.e., plants reduce gs and/or A due to insufficient water supply) and non-stomatal limitation (i.e., downregulation of photosynthetic capacity). We found that the model that incorporated a non-stomatal limitation captured the observations with high fidelity and required the fewest number of parameters. Whilst the model incorporating hydraulic limitation captured the observed A and gs, it did so via a physical mechanism that is incorrect. We then incorporated a non-stomatal limitation into the stand model, MAESPA, to examine its impact on canopy transpiration and gross primary production. Accounting for a non-stomatal limitation reduced the predicted transpiration by ~19%, improving the correspondence with sap flow measurements, and gross primary production by ~14%. Given the projected global increases in D associated with future warming, these findings suggest that models may need to incorporate non-stomatal limitation to accurately simulate A and gs in the future with high D. Further data on non-stomatal limitation at high D should be a priority, in order to determine the generality of our results and develop a widely applicable model. © The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]. was supported by a PhD scholarship from Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University. M.G.D.K. acknowledges funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023), the ARC Discovery Grant (DP190101823) and support from the NSW Research Attraction and Acceleration Program. EucFACE was built as an initiative of the Australian Government as part of the Nation-building Economic Stimulus Package and is supported by the Australian Commonwealth in collaboration with Western Sydney University. It is also part of a Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network Super-site facility

Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk

Predicting species-level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South-Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344–1424 mm yr−1). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE to the 2017–2019 drought; a 20% drier drought; and a 20% drier drought with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). The severity of the drought was highlighted as for at least 25% of their distribution ranges, 60% of species experienced leaf water potentials beyond the water potential at which 50% of hydraulic conductivity is lost due to embolism. We identified areas of severe hydraulic stress within-species’ ranges, but we also pinpointed resilience in species found in predominantly semiarid areas. The importance of the role of CO2 in ameliorating drought stress was consistent across species. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to forecast the resilience of individual tree species, providing an evidence base for decision-making around the resilience of restoration plantings or net-zero emission strategies

Elevated CO₂ does not increase eucalypt forest productivity on a low-phosphorus soil

Rising atmospheric CO2 stimulates photosynthesis and productivity of forests, offsetting CO2 emissions. Elevated CO2 experiments in temperate planted forests yielded ~23% increases in productivity over the initial years. Whether similar CO2 stimulation occurs in mature evergreen broadleaved forests on low-phosphorus (P) soils is unknown, largely due to lack of experimental evidence. This knowledge gap creates major uncertainties in future climate projections as a large part of the tropics is P-limited. Here,we increased atmospheric CO2 concentration in a mature broadleaved evergreen eucalypt forest for three years, in the first large-scale experiment on a P-limited site. We show that tree growth and other aboveground productivity components did not significantly increase in response to elevated CO2 in three years, despite a sustained 19% increase in leaf photosynthesis. Moreover, tree growth in ambient CO2 was strongly P-limited and increased by ~35% with added phosphorus. The findings suggest that P availability may potentially constrain CO2-enhanced productivity in P-limited forests; hence, future atmospheric CO2 trajectories may be higher than predicted by some models. As a result, coupled climate-carbon models should incorporate both nitrogen and phosphorus limitations to vegetation productivity in estimating future carbon sinks

Inferring the effects of sink strength on plant carbon balance processes from experimental measurements

The lack of correlation between photosynthesis and plant growth under sink-limited conditions is a long-standing puzzle in plant ecophysiology that currently severely compromises our models of vegetation responses to global change. To address this puzzle, we applied data assimilation to an experiment in which the sink strength of Eucalyptus tereticornis seedlings was manipulated by restricting root volume. Our goals were to infer which processes were affected by sink limitation and to attribute the overall reduction in growth observed in the experiment to the effects on various carbon (C) component processes. Our analysis was able to infer that, in addition to a reduction in photosynthetic rates, sink limitation reduced the rate of utilization of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC), enhanced respiratory losses, modified C allocation and increased foliage turnover. Each of these effects was found to have a significant impact on final plant biomass accumulation. We also found that inclusion of an NSC storage pool was necessary to capture seedling growth over time, particularly for sink-limited seedlings. Our approach of applying data assimilation to infer C balance processes in a manipulative experiment enabled us to extract new information on the timing, magnitude and direction of the internal C fluxes from an existing dataset. We suggest that this approach could, if used more widely, be an invaluable tool to develop appropriate representations of sink-limited growth in terrestrial biosphere models.</p