Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Hitting Performance in Baseball

We have developed a sophisticated statistical model for predicting the hitting performance of Major League baseball players. The Bayesian paradigm provides a principled method for balancing past performance with crucial covariates, such as player age and position. We share information across time and across players by using mixture distributions to control shrinkage for improved accuracy. We compare the performance of our model to current sabermetric methods on a held-out season (2006), and discuss both successes and limitations

A Bayesian Variable Selection Approach to Major League Baseball Hitting Metrics

Numerous statistics have been proposed for the measure of offensive ability in major league baseball. While some of these measures may offer moderate predictive power in certain situations, it is unclear which simple offensive metrics are the most reliable or consistent. We address this issue with a Bayesian hierarchical model for variable selection to capture which offensive metrics are most predictive within players across time. Our sophisticated methodology allows for full estimation of the posterior distributions for our parameters and automatically adjusts for multiple testing, providing a distinct advantage over alternative approaches. We implement our model on a set of 50 different offensive metrics and discuss our results in the context of comparison to other variable selection techniques. We find that 33/50 metrics demonstrate signal. However, these metrics are highly correlated with one another and related to traditional notions of performance (e.g., plate discipline, power, and ability to make contact)

Boosting BCG with recombinant modified vaccinia ankara expressing antigen 85A: Different boosting intervals and implications for efficacy trials

Objectives. To investigate the safety and immunogenicity of boosting BCG with modified vaccinia Ankara expressing antigen 85A (MVA85A), shortly after BCG vaccination, and to compare this first with the immunogenicity of BCG vaccination alone and second with a previous clinical trial where MVA85A was administered more than 10 years after BCG vaccination. Design. There are two clinical trials reported here: a Phase I observational trial with MVA85A; and a Phase IV observational trial with BCG. These clinical trials were all conducted in the UK in healthy, HIV negative, BCG naı¨ve adults. Subjects were vaccinated with BCG alone; or BCG and then subsequently boosted with MVA85A four weeks later (short interval). The outcome measures, safety and immunogenicity, were monitored for six months. The immunogenicity results from this short interval BCG prime–MVA85A boost trial were compared first with the BCG alone trial and second with a previous clinical trial where MVA85A vaccination was administered many years after vaccination with BCG. Results. MVA85A was safe and highly immunogenic when administered to subjects who had recently received BCG vaccination. When the short interval trial data presented here were compared with the previous long interval trial data, there were no significant differences in the magnitude of immune responses generated when MVA85A was administered shortly after, or many years after BCG vaccination. Conclusions. The clinical trial data presented here provides further evidence of the ability of MVA85A to boost BCG primed immune responses. This boosting potential is not influenced by the time interval between prior BCG vaccination and boosting with MVA85A. These findings have important implications for the design of efficacy trials with MVA85A. Boosting BCG induced anti-mycobacterial immunity in either infancy or adolescence are both potential applications for this vaccine, given the immunological data presented here. Trial Registration. ClinicalTrials.Oxford University was the sponsor for all the clinical trials reported here

Care, control and the electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) ritual: Making sense of polarised patient narratives

Despite evidence of short-term effectiveness of ECT (electroconvulsive therapy), both positive and negative patient reports are common. However, research examining these polarized accounts has not adequately elucidated why such divergences occur. We thus sought to examine opposing patient narratives to better understand underlying meanings. Eighteen interviews were conducted with UK-based people who had experienced the treatment. Our analysis revealed that the quality of relations with staff, ECT artefacts (e.g. the ECT suite), and perceived outcomes all play a role in divergent accounts. Positive reflections on ECT emerged alongside narratives of trust in staff, comfort with ECT, and perception of sufficient personal control. Conversely, where negative evaluations of ECT predominated, there was anger associated with a lack of control, and a belief that ECT made little sense, and was linked to past abuses and/or the unacceptability of side effects. We discuss the implications of our findings for professionals

Mucosal delivery of tuberculosis vaccines: a review of current approaches and challenges.

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major health threat and it is now clear that the current vaccine, BCG, is unable to arrest the global TB epidemic. A new vaccine is needed to either replace or boost BCG so that a better level of protection could be achieved. The route of entry of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative organism, is via inhalation making TB primarily a respiratory disease. There is therefore good reason to hypothesize that a mucosally delivered vaccine against TB could be more effective than one delivered via the systemic route.Areas covered: This review summarizes the progress that has been made in the area of TB mucosal vaccines in the last few years. It highlights some of the strengths and shortcomings of the published evidence and aims to discuss immunological and practical considerations in the development of mucosal vaccines.Expert opinion: There is a growing body of evidence that the mucosal approach to vaccination against TB is feasible and should be pursued. However, further key studies are necessary to both improve our understanding of the protective immune mechanisms operating in the mucosa and the technical aspects of aerosolized delivery, before such a vaccine could become a feasible, deployable strategy

Decision Stages and Asymmetries in Regular Retail Price Pass-Through

We study the pass-through of wholesale price changes onto regular retail prices using an unusually detailed data set obtained from a major retailer. We model pass-through as a two-stage decision process that reflects both whether as well as how much to change the regular retail price. We show that pass-through is strongly asymmetric with respect to wholesale price increases versus decreases. Wholesale price increases are passed through to regular retail prices 70% of the time while wholesale price decreases are passed through only 9% of the time. Pass-through is also asymmetric with respect to the magnitude of the wholesale price change, with the magnitude affecting the response to wholesale price increases but not decreases. Finally, we show that covariates such as private label versus national brand, 99-cent price endings, and the time since the last wholesale price change have a much stronger impact on the first stage of the decision process (i.e., whether to change the regular retail price) than on the second stage (i.e., how much to change the regular retail price)

Count Models Based on Weibull Interarrival Times

The widespread popularity and use of both the Poisson and the negative binomial models for count data arise, in part, from their derivation as the number of arrivals in a given time period assuming exponentially distributed interarrival times (without and with heterogeneity in the underlying base rates, respectively). However, with that clean theory come some limitations including limited flexibility in the assumed underlying arrival rate distribution and the inability to model underdispersed counts (variance less than the mean). Although extant research has addressed some of these issues, there still remain numerous valuable extensions. In this research, we present a model that, due to computational tractability, was previously thought to be infeasible. In particular, we introduce here a generalized model for count data based upon an assumed Weibull interarrival process that nests the Poisson and negative binomial models as special cases. The computational intractability is overcome by deriving the Weibull count model using a polynomial expansion which then allows for closed-form inference (integration term-by-term) when incorporating heterogeneity due to the conjugacy of the expansion and a commonly employed gamma distribution. In addition, we demonstrate that this new Weibull count model can (1) model both over- and underdispersed count data, (2) allow covariates to be introduced in a straightforward manner through the hazard function, and (3) be computed in standard software

Age of second language acquisition affects nonverbal conflict processing in children : an fMRI study

Background: In their daily communication, bilinguals switch between two languages, a process that involves the selection of a target language and minimization of interference from a nontarget language. Previous studies have uncovered the neural structure in bilinguals and the activation patterns associated with performing verbal conflict tasks. One question that remains, however is whether this extra verbal switching affects brain function during nonverbal conflict tasks. Methods: In this study, we have used fMRI to investigate the impact of bilingualism in children performing two nonverbal tasks involving stimulus-stimulus and stimulus-response conflicts. Three groups of 8-11-year-old children - bilinguals from birth (2L1), second language learners (L2L), and a control group of monolinguals (1L1) - were scanned while performing a color Simon and a numerical Stroop task. Reaction times and accuracy were logged. Results: Compared to monolingual controls, bilingual children showed higher behavioral congruency effect of these tasks, which is matched by the recruitment of brain regions that are generally used in general cognitive control, language processing or to solve language conflict situations in bilinguals (caudate nucleus, posterior cingulate gyrus, STG, precuneus). Further, the activation of these areas was found to be higher in 2L1 compared to L2L. Conclusion: The coupling of longer reaction times to the recruitment of extra language-related brain areas supports the hypothesis that when dealing with language conflicts the specialization of bilinguals hampers the way they can process with nonverbal conflicts, at least at early stages in life

Cytokines at the Interplay Between Asthma and Atherosclerosis?

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an important comorbidity in a number of chronic inflammatory diseases. However, evidence in highly prevalent respiratory disease such as asthma are still limited. Epidemiological and clinical data are not univocal in supporting the hypothesis that asthma and CVD are linked and the mechanisms of this relationship remain poorly defined. In this review, we explore the relationship between asthma and cardiovascular disease, with a specific focus on cytokine contribution to vascular dysfunction and atherosclerosis. This is important in the context of recent evidence linking broad inflammatory signaling to cardiovascular events. However inflammatory regulation in asthma is different to the one typically observed in atherosclerosis. We focus on the contribution of cytokine networks encompassing IL-4, IL-6, IL-9, IL-17A, IL-33 but also IFN-γ and TNF-α to vascular dysfunction in atherosclerosis. In doing so we highlight areas of unmet need and possible therapeutic implications